The 2000 Oscar nominations will be announced Tuesday around 7:30 a.m. Chicago time, and the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences may be grateful that the Supreme Court doesn’t have oversight on this election.
The Academy is as likely to reveal its vote totals as McDonald’s is to publish its “special sauce” recipe, but given the scarcity of standout films last year, it’s a good bet that the contenders and left-behinds will be closely clustered together.
Usually at this point you have a fair idea of what the Best Picture front-runner is, as well as some shoo-in nominees. This year strong cases could be made for nine potential Best Picture nominees, and equally persuasive arguments could be presented against each one.
“I think this is a year where there are no great films, there are quite a few good films, and I don’t think, other than for the timing, that any of these films are any better than any other,” said former Universal studio chief Tom Pollock, now a producer and American Film Institute chairman.
“It’s just not a year anybody was able to predict from the beginning,” said an Oscar campaigner representing multiple potential nominees, who spoke under the condition of not being named. “Who would have thought `Gladiator’ would have been in the mix?”
“Gladiator” is a film that many observers (including this one) considered a long shot for a Best Picture nomination in early fall, and some voters still complain that it lacks the substance to deserve a nod. Yet the pre-Oscar indicators and general conventional wisdom now have Ridley Scott’s Roman action epic as the presumptive front-runner.
Steven Soderbergh’s “Erin Brockovich” used to hold that position, but now it seems to be getting less attention than Soderbergh’s more adventurous (though less cohesive) “Traffic,” which itself is far from a Best Picture lock.
Some helpful hints
The safest way to make Oscar predictions is to study the variety of pre-Oscar awards and nominations. There’s no overlap between the 90 or so members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, who select the Golden Globe winners, and the Academy, yet the Globes have a way of lending heat to possible Oscar nominees.
More helpful indicators are the nominees for awards given by the industry’s various guilds prior to the Oscars. The Directors Guild of America, Producers Guild, Screen Actors Guild and Writers Guild are much larger than their respective Academy branches, but Oscar voters belong to the bigger groups.
Academy members vote for nominees within their own branches (editors for editors, directors for directors), but everyone votes for Best Picture. Thus actors, who account for almost 25 percent of Academy membership, have the greatest impact on Best Picture voting.
Another factor: The nominations voting is heavily weighted toward films that are ranked No. 1 on voters’ ballots, meaning that a movie with a passionate following will fare better than one that appealed to more people but tends to be the third or fourth choice on each ballot.
Now, let’s handicap the top six Oscar categories:
Best Picture
Having received nominations from the Directors Guild, Producers Guild and Screen Actors Guild (for best cast ensemble) plus the Golden Globe award for Best Picture (Drama), “Gladiator” has accumulated the most chits (though it just got bypassed by the Writers Guild). It also should benefit from an aggressive DreamWorks campaign and its epic qualities, which are historically appreciated by the Academy.
Ang Lee’s “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” also earned directors’, producers’ and writers’ nominations (but no SAG nod), and it’s a movie with especially devoted fans. One former Oscar campaigner noted that the Academy doesn’t vote just for movies but for achievements, and few would deny that pulling off this martial arts fable is quite a feat.
Cameron Crowe’s “Almost Famous” was thought to have blown its shot when it fizzled at the box office this fall, yet it has rebounded strongly, collecting directors’, producers’, writers’ and SAG nominations plus a Golden Globe victory for Best Picture (Comedy). Movies perceived as lightweight tend not to fare so well at Oscar time, but this is where the Academy’s Baby Boomers show their power; they really, really like “Almost Famous,” even if the young ‘uns and oldsters skipped it.
Perhaps competing for the feel-good crown is Stephen Daldry’s “Billy Elliot,” which received producers’, writers’ and SAG (but not directors’) nominations plus a Golden Globe nomination. The Academy has a soft streak for Brit flicks (“The Full Monty”), and those who enjoyed this one laughed and cried with it. The naysayers complain it’s too manipulative.
For months “Erin Brockovich” was considered the most likely Best Picture winner, but it might have lost some steam. It received Directors Guild, Producers Guild, Writers Guild and Golden Globe nominations but was passed over for a SAG cast nomination (though Julia Roberts and Albert Finney were individually nominated). Best-case scenario: Academy members remember how well-made this March release is. Worst-case scenario: Members decide they’ll honor the movie by voting for Roberts and Finney and Soderbergh by voting for “Traffic.”
Soderbergh’s second possible entry in the category, “Traffic,” conceivably could ace out the first, or vice versa, or he could become the first director with two Best Picture nominees since Francis Ford Coppola in 1974 with “The Godfather Part II” and “The Conversation.” Industry insiders seem split between calling “Traffic” a surefire nominee or a long shot. The entertainment business Web site Inside.com ranks “Traffic” as the No. 1 contender according to its labyrinthine formula of pre-Oscar indicators. Others claim the movie isn’t actually playing that well among Academy members.
Then there’s the Miramax factor. The Weinstein brothers’ studio has landed at least one film in the Best Picture category eight straight years, and it’s spending like Dolly Parton at a sequin sale to promote Lasse Hallstrom’s “Chocolat.” The trick worked last year for Hallstrom’s “The Cider House Rules,” “Chocolat” did land SAG and Writers Guild nominations (though was ignored by the Directors and Producers Guilds), and some folks just think it’s the bees’ knees. But the happy-movie competition in the category is tough, and there’s a growing sense that the Miramax well may finally have run dry.
The most prominent guilds have ignored Robert Zemeckis’ “Cast Away,” yet you can’t completely count out a Tom Hanks movie that explores weighty themes while cleaning up at the box office (a la “The Green Mile” last year). Finally, some think Kenneth Lonergan’s “You Can Count on Me” is too “small” to contend — more likely are Best Actress (Laura Linney) and Screenplay nominations — but it has generated much affection, and it’s an actors’ picture.
Best Actress
The SAG nominees are Joan Allen for “The Contender,” Juliette Binoche for “Chocolat,” Ellen Burstyn for “Requiem for a Dream,” Linney for “You Can Count on Me” and Roberts, the Golden Globe Best Actress (Drama) winner, for “Erin Brockovich.” That seems the most likely Oscar scenario as well.
Renee Zellweger deserves recognition for “Nurse Betty,” but even with a Golden Globe Best Actress (Comedy) award under her belt, she seems to have disappeared from the Oscar radar. Bjork, who earned a Golden Globe nomination for “Dancer in the Dark,” is thought to have no chance. Some figured Gillian Anderson would contend for “The House of Mirth,” but that performance doesn’t seem in the game.
Best Actor
A tougher category. SAG nominated Russell Crowe for “Gladiator,” Tom Hanks for “Cast Away,” Geoffrey Rush for “Quills,” Jamie Bell for “Billy Elliot” and Benicio Del Toro for “Traffic.” No one can figure out why USA Films entered Del Toro in the lead actor category, and he’ll likely wind up a Best Supporting Actor nominee. Bell was a surprise entry to that slate as well, yet Rush could be more likely to fall out of the Oscar race; although he’s popular, his movie is not.
Javier Bardem has received much notice — and a Golden Globe nomination — for “Before Night Falls,” and he should contend here unless Julian Schnabel’s biographical film of Cuban author Reinaldo Arenas proves to be too arty (or gay) for the Academy’s mainstream tastes. Michael Douglas has a decent shot for his Golden Globe-nominated “Wonder Boys” performance if his supporters don’t split his vote with his “Traffic” turn.
Almost everyone loves Mark Ruffalo in “You Can Count on Me,” but his performance, which is right on the border of the lead and supporting categories, seems likely to fall through the cracks. A longer shot is Ed Harris in the title role of his directing debut, “Pollock,” which has yet to raise its Academy profile. Sean Connery also was once thought a possible nominee for “Finding Forrester,” a hit that for some reason appears out of the mix.
Best Supporting Actress
Both SAG and the Golden Globes nominated Judi Dench for “Chocolat,” Frances McDormand and Kate Hudson (who won the Globe) for “Almost Famous” and Julie Walters for “Billy Elliot.” Might as well pencil them in here too.
The fifth SAG nomination went to Kate Winslet for “Quills,” and the Globes nominated Catherine Zeta-Jones for “Traffic.” Of the two, Winslet has the better chance, but Zhang Ziyi or Michelle Yeoh of “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” could slip in, or Marcia Gay Harden for “Pollock” or Elaine May for Woody Allen’s “Small Time Crooks.”
Best Supporting Actor
SAG and the Golden Globes agreed on Jeff Bridges for “The Contender,” Willem Dafoe for “Shadow of the Vampire,” Albert Finney for “Erin Brockovich” and Joaquin Phoenix for “Gladiator,” and Del Toro won the Globe and wound up in the lead SAG category. That lineup is your best bet here.
Gary Oldman also received a SAG nomination and gives the showier performance in “The Contender,” but the lack of an Oscar campaign on his behalf, and the controversy over his disparaging of the movie, may have killed his chances. The late Oliver Reed also could have a shot for “Gladiator,” but his young co-star is getting more attention. Other possibilities: Philip Seymour Hoffman for “Almost Famous” or Bruce Greenwood or Steven Culp for “Thirteen Days.”
Best Director
The Directors Guild nominated Crowe (“Almost Famous”), Lee (“Crouching Tiger”), Scott (“Gladiator”) and Soderbergh twice (“Erin Brockovich” and “Traffic”). Daldry could displace one of the Soderbergh slots if support for “Billy Elliot” is especially strong, and Hallstrom could repeat his “Cider House” nod if “Chocolat” follows in that movie’s footsteps.
But Zemeckis may be a stronger dark horse for his bravura work, as least while the action is away from civilization, in “Cast Away.” Or if the Academy directors really want to show their “edgier” side, they could surprise us with Darren Aronofsky for “Requiem for a Dream.”
BEST PICTURE
“Almost Famous”
“Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”
“Erin Brockovich”
“Gladiator”
“Traffic”
BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem, “Before Night Falls”
Russell Crowe, “Gladiator”
Michael Douglas, “Wonder Boys”
Tom Hanks, “Cast Away”
Geoffrey Rush, “Quills”
BEST ACTRESS
Joan Allen, “The Contender”
Juliette Binoche, “Chocolat”
Ellen Burstyn, “Requiem for a Dream”
Laura Linney, “You Can Count on Me”
Julia Roberts, “Erin Brockovich”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, “The Contender”
Willem Dafoe, “Shadow of the Vampire”
Benicio Del Toro, “Traffic”
Albert Finney, “Erin Brockovich”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Gladiator”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Judi Dench, “Chocolat”
Kate Hudson, “Almost Famous”
Frances McDormand, “Almost Famous”
Julie Walters, “Billy Elliot”
Kate Winslet, “Quills”
BEST DIRECTOR
Cameron Crowe, “Almost Famous”
Ang Lee, “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”
Ridley Scott, “Gladiator”
Steven Soderbergh, “Erin Brockovich”
Steven Soderbergh, “Traffic”
MARK CARO’S PICKS
BEST PICTURE
“Almost Famous”
“Billy Elliot”
“Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”
“Gladiator”
“Traffic”
BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem, “Before Night Falls”
Jamie Bell, “Billy Elliot”
Russell Crowe, “Gladiator”
Michael Douglas, “Wonder Boys”
Tom Hanks, “Cast Away”
BEST ACTRESS
Joan Allen, “The Contender”
Juliette Binoche, “Chocolat”
Ellen Burstyn, “Requiem for a Dream”
Laura Linney, “You Can Count on Me”
Julia Roberts, “Erin Brockovich”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, “The Contender”
Willem Dafoe, “Shadow of the Vampire”
Benicio Del Toro, “Traffic”
Albert Finney, “Erin Brockovich”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Gladiator”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Judi Dench, “Chocolat”
Marcia Gay Harden, “Pollock”
Kate Hudson, “Almost Famous”
Frances McDormand, “Almost Famous”
Julie Walters, “Billy Elliot”
BEST DIRECTOR
Cameron Crowe,
“Almost Famous”
Ang Lee, “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”
Ridley Scott, “Gladiator”
Steven Soderbergh, “Traffic”
Robert Zemeckis, “Cast Away”
