Will Barry Bonds break Mark McGwire’s home-run record? He’s ahead of Big Mac’s pace at the moment, but the answer is probably not.
McGwire spoiled the fun for future chases by finishing with such a strong kick. He hit eight homers in the Cardinals’ last 12 games in 1998, including five against Montreal on the last weekend, to reach 70. While Bonds has positioned himself for a historic September, logic says the only way anybody will break that record is with an aluminum bat or a Titleist Pro-V, and Bonds gets to use neither.
But there’s no way Bonds’ phenomenal season should be shortchanged just because the evidence suggests he and Luis Gonzalez won’t duplicate the magic Big Mac and Sammy Sosa created in ’98. The reality is that Bonds:
– Barring injury will almost certainly join Babe Ruth, Roger Maris, McGwire and Sosa by hitting 60-plus homers. He arrives at Wrigley Field for this weekend’s series against the Cubs with 49 homers. His current pace would give him 68 for the season, and he has road series remaining at the two best hitters’ parks, Coors Field and Enron Field.
– Could shatter Rogers Hornsby’s National League record for slugging percentage. A quick start in August (9-for-25 with three doubles and four home runs) has sent Bonds’ figure to .817. Hornsby’s mark of .756 has stood since 1925 (McGwire and Sosa were .752 and .647, respectively, in ’98).
– Has replaced McGwire as the greatest threat to Hank Aaron’s record of 755 career homers. Bonds, 212 short, just turned 37 two weeks ago.
– Just might get to keep hitting balls into the water beyond the right-field fence at Pac Bell Park into October. The addition of Andres Galarraga, along with other shrewd moves by general manager Brian Sabean, has allowed the once-floundering Giants to join the Dodgers and Arizona in a three-way NL West battle that could produce two playoff teams.
None of the above possibilities would make Bonds happier than that last one. As recently as June 15, Bonds had more home runs (36) than the Giants had wins (35). But since then the Giants have won 29 games with him hitting a mere 13 homers.
This trend is in keeping with wishes Bonds stated at Safeco Field the day before the All-Star Game. He said he’d rather “stay at 39 home runs and go to the World Series with this team” than make a run at McGwire.
It’s the kind of thing team-sport athletes are conditioned to say. But in Bonds’ case, there should be no doubting the sincerity.
This guy has learned the hard way how fleeting the significance of personal achievement can be. A three-time most valuable player, he was named player of the decade for the 1990s by the Sporting News. Along with Willie Mays, his godfather; his father, Bobby Bonds; and Andre Dawson, he is one of four men in the 300/300 club for homers and stolen bases. Yet role players such as Jim Leyritz and Luis Sojo have acquired a better collection of postseason jewelry.
In the biggest games of his life, Bonds has endured the ultimate frustration. His .290 career batting average has translated to .196 in the postseason. His regular-season ratio of one homer every 14.4 at-bats has been replaced with one homer in 97 playoff at-bats.
His Pittsburgh and San Francisco teams are a stunning 0-5 in playoff series, including seventh-game losses to Atlanta in the 1991 and ’92 NL Championship Series. Because it’s considered a regular-season game, the Giants’ 5-3 loss to the Cubs in a one-game playoff for the 1998 wild card is not included in this record of futility. Bonds went 0-for-4 that September night at Wrigley.
At this year’s All-Star break, the Giants were 5 1/2 games out of first place in the West and 3 1/2 back, in fourth place, in the wild-card race. Their 18-9 record since then is the best in the National League.
While Bonds was often a one-man band in the first half, banging out homers like Max Weinberg flailing on a drum kit, he has been part of a symphony orchestra in the second half. It’s no wonder he is trying to become the stealth slugger, diverting as much attention as possible from his home runs.
When Bonds led off the 11th inning with a homer off Danny Graves on Tuesday night in Cincinnati, it gave him 48 homers in his team’s 113 games. No one had ever hit so many so fast, including Ruth. He hit No. 48 in his 114th game in 1921, when he hit 59 to break his previous record of 54. McGwire didn’t get to 48 until the Cardinals’ 124th game in ’98; Sosa got there in the Cubs’ 126th game.
Yet when Bonds was asked what it “means” to be in uncharted waters, he gave a short answer. “It means any of you talk home runs, I’m walking,” he said. “I definitely don’t want to get that started.”
While Sosa basked in the attention generated by his bat in ’98, Bonds is more like McGwire. He’d rather talk about anything else on a daily basis. But there’s no getting away from the reporters who will draw near as Bonds’ home run total climbs. The question is whether he can emulate McGwire’s gift for saying the exact right thing whenever the world is watching.
History says we should expect his public displays to swing wildly, like the stock market. But there won’t be anything wild about his approach at the plate. Waiting for something he could crush, he saw 29 pitches in five plate appearances Wednesday in Cincinnati. He wound up with three strikeouts (all looking) and two walks. The walks raised his major-league leading total to 114.
“He’s the unpitchable guy,” Cincinnati third baseman Aaron Boone said.
“He just sits there, and if you don’t throw it over the plate he spits on it and walks. And when you do throw it over the plate he kills you.”
While this weekend marks the Giants’ only trip to Chicago this season, it won’t necessarily be his only trip to Wrigley Field. He could be back in October, joining Sosa in the first postseason series involving two 60-homer men.
The only thing that would make him happier is being the one still standing when it’s over.
Bonds in land of home-run giants
Barry Bonds homered again Thursday night, reaching the 49-homer plateau faster than any player in history. To break the record of 70, however, Bonds will need to hit 22 homers in his final 47 games.
COMPARING BONDS’ HOME-RUN PACE
Bonds is averaging 0.426 home runs per game, a pace that would give him 69 homers by year’s end. To pass 70, he’ll have to increase that pace to 0.468 homers per game.
Barry Bonds, 49 homers in 2001 (through Thursday)
To reach 49 HR: 115 games, 0.426
From 49 to 71 HR (projected): 47 games, 0.468
Mark McGwire, 70 homers in 1998
McGwire turned it on at the end of his record-breaking season, hitting 22 homers in the final 38 games.
To reach 49 HR: 124 games, 0.395
From 49 to 70 HR: 38 games, 0.552
Sammy Sosa, 63 homers in 1999
Sosa set a torrid pace on his way to his second straight season of 60-plus homers, but his production fell off in the final month and a half.
To reach 49 HR: 120 games, 0.408
From 49 to 63 HR: 42 games, 0.333
* 154-game season
Source: ESPN.com
Chicago Tribune.
