No plus-.500 NFL team has an “easier” second-half schedule than the Bears. That could mean nothing given the unpredictability of the first half, although signs of sanity are emerging.
As crazy as the start of the season was, with Cincinnati and Cleveland both beating defending champion Baltimore, the playoff picture is coming into focus. It’s not as wacky as it seems.
If there is a successor to the Ravens as a surprise Super Bowl contender, it is the Pittsburgh Steelers, out of nowhere with the league’s No. 1 defense and No. 1 rushing attack, the solid if old-fashioned combination the Ravens rode to the top.
Other than the Bears and Steelers, there is evidence that the conventional cream is rising. Only 14 teams have winning records. The 11-year history of the 12-team playoff system is that most of the winning teams and almost none of the losing teams at the halfway point advance to the postseason.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of the few 4-4 teams to rally and make the playoffs the last two years. Ominously for the Bears, the Bucs are 4-4 again and on the schedule twice in the next month, starting Sunday. The Ravens are 6-3 and virtually ended the Tennessee Titans’ chances by stopping the Titans (3-5) at the 1-yard line about midnight Monday night for a 16-10 win, leaving them where they were when they knocked on the Super Bowl goal line two years ago.
Last year five of the six division winners were already in first place at midseason. If the die isn’t yet cast this year, it is taking shape.
The St. Louis Rams recovered from their only loss (to New Orleans) and a week off by unleashing healthy star Marshall Faulk, a preview of things to come.
The Ravens’ defense vs. the Rams’ offense–a clash between the last two Super Bowl winners–remains the most likely matchup for Super Bowl XXXVI on Feb. 3 in New Orleans.
With the Rams rolling with the best record in the league at 7-1, the main question for the rest of the NFC is whether anybody can win enough games to force the Rams to come outside and play.
Only the Green Bay Packers appear capable of wresting home-field advantage from the Rams, who would dread playing at Lambeau Field in January. Indoors they are practically unbeatable. The Saints did it three weeks ago, but the Rams did not have Faulk, their MVP.
The Packers took charge of the NFC Central by bursting the Bears’ bubble. The Packers are the Bears’ only remaining plus-.500 opponent, Dec. 9 in Green Bay.
The Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Giants are again fighting it out in the NFC East, but both already have lost to the Rams, so home field would require a Rams collapse.
In the AFC, the 6-2 Miami Dolphins have already beaten the 6-2 Oakland Raiders and don’t play the 6-2 Steelers. The Dolphins are host to their nemesis, the New York Jets, this week in the first big AFC East matchup of the second half. The 6-3 Jets have beaten the Dolphins seven straight times, including their first meeting this year.
Miami again turned back the wannabe Indianapolis Colts, who are reeling from injury, the ultimate difference-maker.
“A lot of what takes place in this league is dictated by injury,” Colts general manager Bill Polian said before losing running back Edgerrin James and linebacker Mike Peterson to knee injuries. “You have no depth. A team is never as good after sustaining injury as it is before.”
The Raiders, despite a setback in Seattle, have stayed atop the AFC West all season.
In the AFC Central, the Steelers would have beaten the Ravens had kicker Kris Brown not missed four field goals in a 13-10 loss. The rematch is Dec. 16 in Baltimore. The Steelers are getting steadier play from quarterback Kordell Stewart, who ranks slightly ahead of Baltimore’s Elvis Grbac in passer efficiency. And the Steelers were 9-7 last year, so it’s not like they are an overnight sensation.
“If you look in that locker room right now, you see a team,” said Bill Cowher, in his 10th season as Steelers coach. “This might be the closest team I’ve had.”
Jerome Bettis, the NFL’s leading rusher over the last five seasons despite several knee injuries, has stayed healthy. His 163 yards Sunday represented his fifth 100-yard game in eight games. His performance and the Steelers’ success have underscored the time-honored principle that good football starts with the ability to run and stop the run.
Faulk’s 183 yards in the first half last week, combined with the Rams’ much-improved defense, explains their dominance. Ranked 23rd on defense last year and 13th against the rush, the new Rams are fourth in both categories.
The Ravens are just recovering from the loss of running back Jamal Lewis, who injured his knee in training camp and is out for the season. The Bears have discovered Anthony Thomas and the Packers count on Ahman Green. The 49ers are thrilled by the miracle comeback of Garrison Hearst. The Jets are winning with the league’s leading rusher, Curtis Martin.
Conversely, the Minnesota Vikings have yet to recover from the retirement of Robert Smith. The Titans haven’t been able to get Eddie George on track.
The 49ers, like the Bears, have surprised a lot of people–including themselves. After winning just 10 games the last two seasons, general manager Terry Donahue considers the 6-2 start better than planned.
“The expectation level has certainly been raised,” Donahue said. “When we started the season I hoped we’d show improvement, [but] at this stage, who are we kidding? Players, coaches and management are talking about how we’ve got to get into the playoffs. We’re talking playoffs, absolutely.”
Since there are only six winning teams in the NFC at the midway point, anything less than playoffs would be disappointing for the 49ers, Bears, Packers, Rams, Eagles and Giants. The 4-4 Bucs and Saints are already disappointed.
“I think it will be a down-to-the-wire type of thing,” Tampa coach Tony Dungy said of the NFC Central race. “Green Bay’s playing very well right now and the Bears won six straight before they lost. We’ve got to get ourselves going.”
Who would have guessed?
Tribune pro football reporter Don Pierson picks the surprises at the midpoint of the season.
Top 3 players
1. Tom Brady, QB, Patriots
The latest of the Michigan quarterbacks, this second-year, sixth-round draft choice took over for the injured Drew Bledsoe and now threatens his job with a 5-2 record.
2. Jerome Bettis, RB, Steelers
Not many running backs get better with age, but Bettis is having a career year, averaging 5.3 yards a carry. He hasn’t averaged 4 yards since 1997.
3. Mike Brown, Safety, Bears
Call him lucky if you want for winning those back-to-back overtimes. Teammate Brian Urlacher calls him the best player on the defense that has made the Bears such a surprise.
Top 3 teams
1. Bears
Six wins for the season was the most optimistic prediction. Six wins in half a season is a serious case of overachievement. Defense and running game finally make them legitimate competition.
2. 49ers
Quarterback Jeff Garcia is an MVP candidate on a team that won only 10 games over the last two years. Terrell Owens might argue the point, of course, but nobody asked.
3. Steelers
They were 9-7 last year, so 6-2 shouldn’t be a shock. But nobody figured they would be ahead of both Baltimore and Tennessee in the AFC Central Division.
The disappointments
Tribune pro football reporter Don Pierson picks the NFL’s flops at the midpoint of the season.
THE PLAYERS
1. Trent Green, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Dick Vermeil gave up a first-round pick to the Rams, but Marshall Faulk and Isaac Bruce didn’t come with him. Green has the lowest passer rating in the league.
2. Eddie George, RB, Tennessee Titans
For whatever reasons, George is averaging a paltry 2.8 yards a carry. He’s 6-3, so falling forward would be almost as good.
3. Randy Moss, WR, Minnesota Vikings
He’s caught only three touchdown passes and is averaging only 13.8 yards a catch. He gets accused of taking plays off.
THE TEAMS
1. Lions
An 0-8 start is so bad that Vice Chairman William Clay Ford Jr. is thinking of making President Matt Millen drive an Edsel to work.
2. Panthers
They are 1-8 but worse than the Lions. George Seifert is ready to set sail back to San Francisco, where he was the winningest coach ever.
3. Buccaneers
Every year the Bucs start 4-4. Every year they seem to rally to make the playoffs. This year was supposed to be different.
