The defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens hope the last shall be first because they were the last team to qualify for the NFL playoffs, crawling this time instead of growling.
There are no courtesy invitations for this tournament. Reputation means nothing. There should be name cards instead. Half of last year’s playoff teams failed to advance this time.
Say so long to the Giants, Vikings, Saints, Colts, Titans and Broncos and hello to the Bears, Packers, 49ers, Jets, Patriots and Steelers. Although the last six may sound familiar, none has played in a postseason the last two seasons. The Bears have been away the longest, 1994. The Steelers haven’t made it since 1997.
In the last five seasons, there have been 23 new division winners out of a possible 30, a 77 percent turnover rate. The 1999 champion St. Louis Rams are the consensus favorite to win it all again. Some experts believe the Rams are head and shoulders above everybody else, but if you still want to listen to experts after this unpredictable season, do so at your own risk.
Who’s hot
Hot teams usually have the advantage in the playoffs. Last year the Ravens won their last seven even though they entered as a wild-card team. Two years ago the Rams won seven in a row before losing a meaningless regular-season finale. The only champion of the last five that faltered entering the playoffs was the 1997 Denver team that lost two of its last three and arrived as a wild card.
If fast finishes count, look for the Rams and Patriots to wind up in Super Bowl XXXVI Feb. 3 in New Orleans. Each has six wins in a row.
Rams: They believe the only thing they have to fear is the Rams themselves. Only fumbles or interceptions can deter them from their second championship in three years.
They also believe they can’t lose within their own dome. The thing is they can beat themselves and have done it–against New Orleans and Tampa Bay–both times in St. Louis.
What makes them so formidable is the combination of the league’s highest-scoring offense with a revamped defense that finished first in the NFC.
“I think we’re a better team than we were two years ago. I really do,” coach Mike Martz said. “I shouldn’t say that I guess. That was an outstanding team that won the Super Bowl.”
Patriots: The AFC version of the Bears, the amazing Patriots haven’t lost since Nov. 18–to the Rams. Martz called the Patriots the best team he’s seen. Is he looking ahead to a Super Bowl rematch?
Coach Bill Belichick suspended receiver Terry Glenn and watched Troy Brown blossom. He saw quarterback Drew Bledsoe go down and untested Tom Brady rise up.
The Patriots have an unusual advantage of two off weeks–Dec. 30 and this weekend–to heal.
Could a Super Bowl stand the resilient Bryan Cox? Could a Super Bowl stand Bryan Cox vs. the Bears?
Bears: This is no time to quit wondering “Why Not Us?” Last summer there were too many reasons to dislike this team to give a short answer. But “Why Not Us?” has been coach Dick Jauron’s unlikely battle cry from the start.
Now there are as many reasons to believe, starting on defense, where they have linebackers fast enough to cover the Rams’ Marshall Faulk. Soldier Field is supposed to be an advantage, although don’t try to convince the 1986-87-88 or 1991 Bears teams.
The Bears won their last four after losing to the Packers for the second time. They would probably like to avoid the Packers in the playoffs, but Green Bay would just as soon not see the Bears either, knowing it is difficult to beat a team three times in one season.
Steelers: They won eight in a row and were bulldozing down the stretch until the Cincinnati Bengals, of all teams, beat them when home-field advantage was still on the line.
A lingering injury to running back Jerome Bettis and some exposed holes on defense leave the Steelers vulnerable. But it is still the league’s No. 1 defense and No. 1 running team and quarterback Kordell Stewart has had a remarkable season.
They better avoid close games. Kicker Kris Brown missed three extra points and 14 field goals this season.
Eagles: They are the Bears’ most likely opening opponent, depending on whether they can get past the Buccaneers in Philadelphia again.
Quarterback Donovan McNabb had his best game as a pro in knocking the defending NFC champion Giants from contention two weeks ago. His big-play ability is similar to Brett Favre’s, something Bears fans don’t need to mention out loud.
The Eagles have a gambling, blitzing defense that looks like it’s still coached by Buddy Ryan.
Packers: They are 6-1 down the stretch, their lone loss at Tennessee the week after beating the Bears for the second time. They have not been dominant. Their defense is scrambling because of injury and will not be at full strength because safety LeRoy Butler is out for the duration.
What the Packers have is the one quarterback in Brett Favre that most coaches would want in a do-or-die situation, Kurt Warner notwithstanding. In Ahman Green, they also have the NFC’s leading rusher left in the playoffs.
Buccaneers: If a 5-2 finish didn’t wear out the Bucs emotionally and physically, consider them hot. They didn’t need to win last week’s meaningless warmup against Philadelphia, but they do this week in Philly, the same place where they were ousted 21-3 a year ago.
The perception is they are competing for coach Tony Dungy’s job, which may be more baggage than one team is able to carry on the road.
Who’s not
49ers: Although they finished stronger than most AFC teams, the 49ers are the only NFC qualifier that stumbled when it had to win. They lost at Dallas two weeks ago, costing them a home-field wild-card opener. Now they must travel to Green Bay.
They also lost badly at St. Louis Dec. 9 in quarterback Jeff Garcia’s worst outing of the season, providing a possible glimpse of the future for other would-be contenders. The 49ers’ defense gave up zero, zero, and three points in three of their first four December games, but yielded 27 to the high-scoring Rams.
Dolphins: After scoring one touchdown in two December road losses, the Dolphins salvaged a home wild-card opener by beating Atlanta and Buffalo at home.
Coach Dave Wannstedt hopes rookie receiver Chris Chambers is healthy enough to make a difference and that the good quarterback Jay Fiedler shows up against the Ravens instead of the shaky quarterback.
Jets: After failing to beat the Raiders in Oakland for 39 years, the Jets must do it twice in eight days.
They were 3-3 down the stretch, an improvement over their usual December swoon. Herman Edwards is the only rookie head coach in the playoffs. Curtis Martin is the No. 1 rusher left.
Raiders: No team ever finished 2-4 in its last six games and reached the Super Bowl. The Raiders are reeling, unable to stop the run or to run effectively themselves. Quarterback Rich Gannon, once an MVP candidate, is pressing, trying to win it himself.
Coach Jon “Chuckie” Gruden’s perpetual sideline scowl soon will have relevance. His team doesn’t look like it’s going very far and Gruden will be leaving soon himself.
Ravens: Coach Brian Billick will try to talk himself out of this one and it will be fascinating to listen. When the Ravens stumbled past the lowly Minnesota Vikings Monday night, they hardly resembled a team eager and ready to repeat.
New quarterback Elvis Grbac is in the playoff building but he seems to be hanging awfully close to the exit.
Ranking the teams
Don Pierson ranks the teams as the NFL playoffs begin:
1. Rams: Hard to pick against them, especially indoors.
2. BEARS: Solid, consistent, nothing fancy, unbelievable.
3. Steelers: No. 1 defense. Is Jerome Bettis healthy? Kicking is bad.
4. Patriots: The Bears of the AFC and well rested besides.
5. Packers: Brett Favre can carry them–and may have to.
6. Eagles: Donovan McNabb and a blitzing defense can cause trouble.
7. Dolphins: Playing at home helps, but not for long.
8. 49ers: They blew chance to avoid Green Bay trip.
9. Buccaneers: Happy to make playoffs; could be worn out.
10. Ravens: Still dangerous but mainly to themselves.
11. Raiders: Staggering into postseason; lucky to get Jets.
12. Jets: Winning two in row in Oakland seems unlikely.
