Traditionally, the Grammys wait for artists to hang around a few decades before lavishing them with the awards they deserved — but didn’t get — in their prime. Remember last year when Steely Dan walked off with the album of the year award? Yes, Steely Dan should have won album of the year . . . in 1975 for “Pretzel Logic” but not in 2001 for the less inspired “Two Against Nature.” Even the Dan’s unflappable duo of Donald Fagen and Walter Becker appeared stunned by their three-decades-late victory.
Youth may one day be served at the Grammy Awards, and next week is as good an opportunity as any for artists to be recognized on the upswing of their careers rather than on the downslope. At the 44th annual ceremony, to be broadcast at 7 p.m. Wednesday from Los Angeles on CBS-TV, expect old pros U2 to walk away with the lion’s share of awards. But it’ll be a major surprise if R&B newcomer Alicia Keys doesn’t cash in on several of her six nominations. Also in the running for their first Grammys are upstarts such as India.Arie, Nelly Furtado, OutKast, Linkin Park and Train.
As usual, the nominations by the National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences leave plenty to grouse about. If there were an award for best marketing campaign for a new artist, Keys would surely win. But if “artistic excellence” is the sole criterion, as the academy insists, Keys is less deserving than some of her less-celebrated peers. Though Arie and Furtado made sturdier albums, Keys owes her multiplatinum status to a single, instant-classic song, “Fallin’.” But that indelible tune and the high-profile patronage of starmaker Clive Davis (who oversaw Santana’s Grammy-enshrined comeback album, “Supernatural”) may be enough to carry her to at least two and possibly three of the four major awards.
The nominations for relative newcomers Train and Linkin Park also are clearly a case of sales triumphing over substance. OutKast, on the other hand, has been stretching the boundaries of funk for years, and the duo’s “Stankonia” is a hip-hop landmark. It’s a long-shot for best album, but should win for best rap album.
U2, after sweeping song and record of the year at last February’s awards, is poised to take home the big prize this year: album of the year. “All That You Can’t Leave Behind” is a fine U2 album, but it’s eclipsed in artistic excellence by three of the other nominees: “Stankonia,” the “O Brother, Where Art Thou?” soundtrack of old-timey country tunes and Bob Dylan’s “Love and Theft.” Dylan may yet win the award because of the respect he commands within the academy, particularly after his album of the year victory in 1998 for “Time Out of Mind” was marred by the appearance of the infamous “Soy Bomb” dancer during the singer’s live performance. But U2’s marketing campaign has been more heavy-handed, including the Irish quartet’s appearance at the Super Bowl halftime a few weeks ago, and that will likely help sway the Grammy voters.
Here’s a look at who should win some of the major awards:
RECORD OF THE YEAR: Alicia Keys’ “Fallin'” has the slight edge over U2’s “Walk On” in this category, which honors the performer of a song (as opposed to song of the year, which honors the songwriter). But the most deserving nominees are India.Arie, for “Video,” and OutKast, for “Ms. Jackson.”
ALBUM OF THE YEAR: More deserving entries from OutKast and Bob Dylan, plus the “O Brother” soundtrack, will be run over by the U2 juggernaut. “All That You Can’t Leave Behind” should follow in the Grammy footsteps of the first single from the album, “Beautiful Day,” which won song and record of the year in 2001.
SONG OF THE YEAR: Keys’ “Fallin'” again has the inside track in this category, which honors songwriting, though Arie’s “Video” could pull an upset.
NEW ARTIST: Memo to the recording academy: David Gray has been releasing albums on major labels since the early ’90s. He is not a “new” artist. Gray is long shot to win, however, because it’ll be all about Keys.
POP ALBUM: Nelly Furtado’s “Whoah, Nelly!” is a dazzling multi-culti debut but may get competition from golden oldie Elton John, whose “Songs from the West Coast” is his best effort in decades.
ROCK ALBUM: U2 should coast over has-been Aerosmith, never-were Linkin Park, over-hyped Ryan Adams and criminally underappreciated PJ Harvey.
ALTERNATIVE ALBUM: Will the academy finally recognize Bjork? Her ballad-heavy avant-pop soundscape (“Vespertine”) should edge entries from Tori Amos, Radiohead, Coldplay and Fatboy Slim.
R&B ALBUM: Alicia Keys’ “Songs in A Minor” isn’t as strong as India.Arie’s “Acoustic Soul,” but Keys will be favored, unless the late Aaliyah pulls a sympathy-vote upset.
COUNTRY ALBUM: Oh, the irony, if “Timeless — a Hank Williams Tribute” wins. It features performances by non-country artists such as Bob Dylan, Sheryl Crow and Keith Richards yet sounds rooted in country grit. Look for Willie Nelson to be the bail-out choice for “Rainbow Connection.”
CONTEMPORARY BLUES: Buddy Guy’s “Sweet Tea” is his best album since his Chess Records heyday in the ’60s and deserves the nod over lesser efforts by Dr. John, Etta James, Keb Mo and Delbert McClinton.
