Which will win 2002’s Best Picture Oscar: the movie about the brilliant man falling apart or the movie about a fantasy world at war?
This year’s Best Picture Oscar front-runners — “A Beautiful Mind” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring” — represent two very different kinds of movie-making: a prestige psychological drama that focuses on human anguish, and an extravagant fantasy adventure that re-creates a whole teeming literary universe. Yet one or the other will almost certainly take top honors at the 74th annual Oscar ceremonies on March 24.
The other top Oscar races tend to settle into small duels as well: Best Actor (Russell Crowe and Denzel Washington), Best Actress (Sissy Spacek and Halle Berry) and Best Director (Ron Howard and Peter Jackson). There are two notable exceptions: Supporting Actress and Animated Feature, which currently seem to belong to Jennifer Connelly and “Shrek.” As Oscar night approaches, the races usually become clearer, but the top two-movie race remains clouded in doubt. It could go either way — or even somewhere else.
An Oscar night with fewer sure things, though, is an Oscar night that might be more entertaining and surprising. (My picks are in bold type.)
Best picture
“A Beautiful Mind”
“Gosford Park”
“In the Bedroom”
(Wilmington’s pick, in bold type:) “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring”
“Moulin Rouge”
“Lord of the Rings” starts with an incredible advantage: an overwhelming 13 Oscar nominations, indicating broad support from many different Academy branches. But “A Beautiful Mind,” long considered the favorite, remains the kind of movie that usually wins Best Picture Oscars — serious, intelligent, humane, inspirational, a portrait of human problems. So either one is a plausible victor. That is why the recent Producers Guild award for “Moulin Rouge” was such a shocker: Big, artificial, tongue-in-cheek extravaganzas like Baz Luhrmann’s Parisian romp usually don’t conquer all.
But then neither do film fantasies, no matter how popular or critically applauded. What makes “Lord of the Rings” special is the kind of fantasy-adventure it is — it’s adapted from J.R.R. Tolkien’s popular cult trilogy and is a literary triumph — and also the magnitude of the risk and achievement it represents. That’s why it may nudge ahead of one-time heavy favorite “A Beautiful Mind.”
Best Director
Ron Howard, “A Beautiful Mind”
Ridley Scott, “Black Hawk Down”
Robert Altman, “Gosford Park”
(Wilmington’s pick, in bold type:) Peter Jackson, “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring”
David Lynch, “Mulholland Drive”
Howard and Jackson are the leading contenders, with Altman a strong dark horse for what would basically be a career Oscar. Howard benefits strongly from his sheer likability and the fact that the actor’s branch — which helped give Best Director Oscars to actors such as Clint Eastwood, Robert Redford and Mel Gibson — is the Academy’s most populous. Jackson, on the other hand, is admired for his sheer guts and panache on bringing off “Rings.” It’s close. And Altman could shock everybody.
Best Actor
Russell Crowe in “A Beautiful Mind”
Sean Penn in “I Am Sam”
Will Smith in “Ali”
(Wilmington’s pick, in bold type:) Denzel Washington in “Training Day”
Tom Wilkinson in “In the Bedroom”
When Crowe blew up and attacked the producer at the British Academy of Film and Television Awards after winning a Best Actor prize for “A Beautiful Mind,” he may have sunk his chances repeating for a second year as an Oscar winner, even though his portrayal of schizophrenic Nobel Prize winner John Forbes Nash almost certainly would have won any other year. That gives the voters a chance to correct an injustice. In 1999, Washington was dubiously denied a Best Actor Oscar for “The Hurricane,” partly because of a furious last-minute campaign that questioned the film’s veracity and attacked the character of the real-life movie subject, boxer-convict Rubin Hurricane Carter. Academy members can now ease their consciences by awarding him for his performance as a corrupt narcotics detective in “Training Day.” The dark horse is Wilkinson.
Best Actress
Halle Berry in “Monster’s Ball”
Judi Dench in “Iris”
Nicole Kidman in “Moulin Rouge”
(Wilmington’s pick, in bold type:) Sissy Spacek in “In the Bedroom”
Renee Zellweger in “Bridget Jones’s Diary”
Another two-person race between actresses who played bereaved mothers: Spacek in “Bedroom” and Berry in “Monster’s Ball.” Kidman, my own favorite, is hampered because “Moulin Rouge” is a musical. Dench, the British Academy winner as Alzheimer’s-stricken novelist Iris Murdoch, has generated little enthusiasm in the U.S.; perhaps it’s too depressing a role. Zellweger, in a light comic role, has no chance. As for the favorites, Spacek has one clear advantage: Her part is better written and it’s in a much better-liked film — with little chance for an award elsewhere.
Best Supporting Actor
(Wilmington’s pick, in bold type:) Jim Broadbent in “Iris”
Ethan Hawke in “Training Day”
Ben Kingsley in “Sexy Beast”
Ian McKellen in “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring”
Jon Voight in “Ali”
Three top-flight British actors — Kingsley as the brute gangster in “Sexy Beast,” Broadbent as Murdoch’s writer-husband John Bayley in “Iris” and McKellen as wizard Gandalf in “Rings” — are the obvious front-runners. But Kingsley’s foul-mouthed psycho-bully may be too off-type (and hard to understand), while McKellen’s Gandalf is upstaged by his entire movie. Broadbent’s gentle, long-suffering husband is a tailor-made Oscar performance. It also doesn’t hurt that they’ll have seen his versatility showcased as slimy impresario Zigler in “Moulin Rouge.”
Best Supporting Actress
(Wilmington’s pick, in bold type:) Jennifer Connelly in “A Beautiful Mind”
Helen Mirren in “Gosford Park”
Maggie Smith in “Gosford Park”
Marisa Tomei in “In the Bedroom”
Kate Winslet in “Iris”
It’s nice to have one category where everything seems settled — and when Connelly took the British Academy’s top prize for her part as the long-suffering wife in “Mind,” she may have indicated invulnerability in this category. If any group was going to anoint her main competitors, Mirren or Smith in “Gosford Park,” it should have been their countrymen. They didn’t, and neither will the Yanks.
Best Animated Feature Film
“Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius”
“Monsters, Inc.”
(Wilmington’s pick, in bold type:) “Shrek”
In this new category, there are two blockbuster monoliths — “Monsters” and “Shrek” — and one weird little toss-in, “Jimmy Neutron.” (A win for “Jimmy” would rank with the biggest Oscar upsets ever.) “Shrek” is better liked among audiences and critics. One big tip-off: “Shrek’s” screenplay nomination, rare for a feature cartoon.
Best Foreign Language Film
(Wilmington’s pick, in bold type:) “Amelie,” France
“Elling,” Norway
“Lagaan,” India
“No Man’s Land,” Bosnia & Herzegovina
“Son of the Bride,” Argentina
Everyone’s favorite seems to be winsome “Amelie” — but in a year when we’ve suddenly become war-conscious, the powerful Bosnian anti-war dark comedy/drama “No Man’s Land” looks like a spoiler.
Best Screenplay
(based on material previously produced or published)
(Wilmington’s pick, in bold type:) Akiva Goldsman, “A Beautiful Mind”
Daniel Clowes and Terry Zwigoff, “Ghost World”
Rob Festinger and Todd Field, “In the Bedroom”
Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, “Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring”
Ted Elliott & Terry Rossio and Joe Stillman and Roger S.H. Schulman, “Shrek”
Along with Jennifer Connelly, this is one of the surest bets in the entire contest; probably no one else but the “Bedroom” scribes has even a chance.
Best Screenplay
(written directly for the screen)
Screenplay by Guillaume Laurant and Jean-Pierre Jeunet, dialogue by Guillaume Laurant, “Amelie”
(Wilmington’s pick, in bold type:) Julian Fellowes, “Gosford Park”
Screenplay by Christopher Nolan, story by Jonathan Nolan, “Memento”
Milo Addica and Will Rokos, “Monster’s Ball”
Wes Anderson and Owen Wilson, “The Royal Tenenbaums”
Another tight two-movie race between “Gosford Park” and “Memento.” If Altman wins Best Director, the voters could skew to Nolan. Otherwise, this is the Academy’s one chance to give “Gosford” a major award.
