When does a statistic tell a story and when does it tell a lie?
In spring training.
In other words, some statistics do matter. Others don’t. And still others are open for interpretation.
So with just nine exhibition games remaining before the April 1 season opener in Cincinnati, here’s a look at what the Cubs are worried about–and what they’re not worried about.
Concern: Reliever Scott Chiasson has faced seven batters in his last two appearances. Six have gotten hits, the other reached base on a walk.
The 24-year-old Chiasson motored through the Cubs’ minor-league system last year, posting a 1.76 ERA with 24 saves at Double-A West Tenn and a 2.25 ERA with 10 saves in 11 chances at Triple-A Iowa.
“When I got to Triple A, I thought: Am I good enough to pitch here?” Chiasson recalled. “And then when I pitched well there, I was like: Wow.”
Chiasson also performed well in six late-season appearances with the Cubs, allowing just two runs. But his recent struggles have made the Cubs skeptical that he can handle being club’s top right-handed set-up man.
Consequently, the Cubs will continue to pursue a deal for a veteran reliever while hoping that Carlos Zambrano’s recent improvement is not a mirage.
“Hopefully it becomes a battle for that job,” pitching coach Larry Rothschild said, “and not a war of attrition.”
Not a concern: The Cubs have the worst spring record in baseball at 7-17. (The White Sox are second worst at 6-15.)
“You never enjoy losing,” said Jim Hendry, the Cubs’ vice president of player personnel. “But there are a lot of things that factor into it.”
Namely, that many of the games are decided in the late innings when the field is flooded with minor-league players.
The Cubs lost to Arizona 11-7 on March 14 after right-hander Ben Ford, who has no chance of making the team, gave up eight runs, six of which were earned. Third starter Juan Cruz threw five shutout innings to start the game.
Might be a concern: Kyle Farnsworth has struggled in back-to-back outings, watching his ERA balloon to 13.51.
Farnsworth, thrust into the closer’s role after Tom Gordon’s injury, is just 3-for-9 lifetime in save opportunities. Until he succeeds on the job, there always will be concerns about his mental toughness and resiliency.
Cubs officials can’t vouch for that, but they do know he’s throwing well.
“The velocity is there,” Hendry said. “He’s not throwing 91-93 (m.p.h.). He’s at 94-97.”
Said Baylor: “It probably takes him a little longer [to get ready] than it takes a finesse guy. He just needs another 10 days or so.”
Concern: Corey Patterson has walked just one time in 64 plate appearances.
Baylor has been preaching patience and selectivity to Patterson, who tends to swing at the first good fastball he sees. On the flip side, Patterson has a six-game hitting streak during which he has raised his average from .211 to .254.
And he has homered in his last two games off Milwaukee’s Ray King and Joel Pineiro.
Not a concern: Sammy Sosa has hit just two home runs in 14 games.
The man is batting .400. And if he were hitting the ball any harder, pitchers would ask to throw from behind a screen.
Might be a concern: Moises Alou is batting .211 after being slowed by a strained muscle in his left side.
Remember this: After missing the first two weeks of last season with a strained right calf, Alou started the year on a 20-for-40 tear.
