Let me see if I have this right.
The Cubs are dying a slow and painfully public death for one basic reason–they are the worst hitting team in the majors. Andy MacPhail and Jim Hendry have saddled Don Baylor with a corps of underperforming veterans and an unproductive bench. They have made matters worse by forcing him to carry three catchers, even though none can hit or play anywhere else.
So whom do the people movers displace when they finally conclude two catchers are enough? That would be Robert Machado, who was outperforming Todd Hundley and Joe Girardi in every category except intangibles, connections and guaranteed contracts.
With Machado gone, whom does the MacPhail-Hendry tag team add? That would be 170-pound infielder Augie Ojeda, who is only barely hitting his weight. Talk about trying to put out a wildfire with a squirt gun.
If the Cubs’ 26-37 record tells us anything about their manager, it is only this: Baylor is neither a miracle worker nor a magician. But barring a turnaround, he soon–perhaps very soon–will be another in the long line of ex-managers who tried and failed with the Cubs.
The continued pathetic showing by the likes of Moises Alou, Alex Gonzalez, Bill Mueller and Hundley is evidence that players who know hopelessness when they see it already are counting the days until school’s out. They’re about to take their manager–who, by the way, never has sold them out–with them.
It’s hard to know what would be the final straw for MacPhail. It could be if the Cubs are embarrassed in Houston. It could be if they play dead against the White Sox this weekend. But with the All-Star Game less than a month away, it’s hard to see MacPhail riding Baylor much longer unless he’s convinced he’s the best manager to win with in 2003.
That’s what this managerial decision comes down to–with whom do you want to try to win next year? That effort starts immediately, with the emphasis on salvaging a winning record while keeping newcomers Mark Prior, Corey Patterson, Bobby Hill and Juan Cruz from experiencing the misery of a never-ending battle to stay ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers.
It’s not Baylor’s fault that the Cubs once again are playing like Sammy Sosa and the seven dwarfs. Nor is it Baylor’s fault that the mighty Sosa is hitting .214 with men in scoring position and has driven in exactly nine runs in the 196 at-bats this season when the ball did not leave the park.
But when you’re outspending everyone else in the division and have almost no hope of getting the 90 victories that could get you into the playoffs, someone is going to pay. It’s not going to be MacPhail, who is splitting his time between Wrigley Field and bargaining sessions with the players’ union (talk about beating your head against two walls at once). That leaves Baylor, who has about 1 1/2 years left on his four-year deal.
But before getting rid of Baylor, answer this question: Whom can you get that is better to replace him?
Since the end of the 1999 season, there have been 29 managerial changes by 21 teams. Most could be described as more cosmetic than therapeutic.
This season’s epidemic of firings has seen five canned since Opening Day. While Colorado and Toronto are playing much better under Clint Hurdle and Carlos Tosca than under Buddy Bell and Buck Martinez, respectively, the combined winning percentage of the Tigers, Royals, Brewers, Rockies and Blue Jays has climbed only from .311 before the moves to .469 since.
As Cubs fans know better than most, there are no overnight cures in baseball.
It’s too early to say if Hurdle and Tosca can sustain their early success. I would say that among the 29 changes since the end of 1999, only three have unquestionably made teams better than they would have been if had they stayed the course.
The difference-makers are Arizona’s Bob Brenly, Los Angeles’ Jim Tracy and Boston’s Grady Little. By the end of the season, Minnesota’s Ron Gardenhire might join this class.
There’s a common denominator between these four. Brenly, Tracy, Little and Gardenhire are longtime baseball men and former coaches–although Brenly took a sabbatical in the broadcast booth–who were at least 44 before getting their first chance to manage. They bring their own styles and a vitally important freshness to a job that is arguably the most consuming in sports.
Does MacPhail or Hendry have a candidate like that available? With Terry Kennedy no longer in the organization, it doesn’t appear there are any such internal candidates. Girardi could qualify down the road but not now.
Paul Molitor is the best bet among those not currently managing. He would be an excellent choice–just as good as Baylor was when MacPhail hired him to replace Jim Riggleman. But it remains unclear whether Molitor wants to spend the next 10 years managing or following Bruce Springsteen around America.
If Molitor is not available, I would find out if Tom Kelly was ready to come back to the majors. Along with loose cannon Jim Fregosi, Kelly knows more about winning than anyone else available. Larry Dierker, with a .553 winning percentage in Houston, knows the National League Central as well as anyone. Phil Garner deserves a chance with a roster better than the ones he had in Milwaukee and Detroit.
But if recycling is the best the Cubs can do, they might wish they had hung onto Baylor. The biggest failing in the Tribune Co. era is a lack of stability. With Baylor they’re making progress in that department anyway.
After the fall
How the five teams who have fired their manager this season have fared since the change.
TEAM MANAGER REC FIRED MANAGER REC
Tigers Phil Garner 0-6 April 9 Luis Pujols 22-34
Brewers Davey Lopes 4-12 April 18 Jerry Royster 18-30
Rockies Buddy Bell 6-16 April 26 Clint Hurdle 25-17
Royals Tony Muser 8-15 April 29 Tony Pena 16-22
Blue Jays Buck Martinez 20-33 June 3 Carlos Tosca 7-1
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Note: Boston replaced manager Joe Kerrigan with Grady Little in spring training.
