A year after the attacks of Sept. 11, most Americans prefer a cooperative, multilateral foreign policy to a go-it-alone approach. Despite the seismic impact of the attacks and their new feelings of vulnerability, Americans have not turned either to isolationism or to policing the world. Rather, they are more attentive to what is happening beyond their borders and ready to act in the world, especially in cooperation with other nations.
This is the key finding of a comprehensive new survey conducted by the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations and the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Large majorities of the U.S. public insist on United Nations and allied approval before using force in Iraq, favor multilateral approaches to combating terrorism and want to strengthen the United Nations and other international institutions.
The council’s poll is by far the best known and most prestigious survey on American foreign policy. The council has taken the poll every four years since 1972, and this is the eighth quadrennial survey. Like its predecessors, it is expected to be a guide to American foreign policy attitudes for policymakers, academics and journalists.
When asked what is the most important lesson of Sept. 11, 61 percent of Americans said that the U.S. needs to work more closely with other countries to fight terrorism. Only 34 percent of respondents said the U.S. needs to act on its own more.
When asked whether the U.S. should play the role of world policeman, 62 percent said no. In answer to another question, 65 percent said the United States is playing that role more than it should be.
This is not to say Americans have become pacifists. Far from it. The overwhelming majority of Americans believe international terrorism is one of the biggest problems facing the country. Most favor the vigorous use of force against terrorism, even when multilateralism is not mentioned. For example, 87 percent favor U.S. air strikes to attack terrorist camps and other facilities; 84 percent favor using U.S. ground troops against such camps. Two-thirds favor assassinating individual terrorist leaders.
When it comes to situations that might involve large numbers of U.S. casualties, however, multilateralism is a crucial requirement before the public will approve the use of American troops.
Invading Iraq
In general terms, 75 percent of Americans say they favor using U.S. troops “in order to overthrow Saddam Hussein’s government in Iraq.”
When a different question spells out the circumstances more precisely, only 20 percent say that the “U.S. should invade Iraq even if we have to go it alone.” About two-thirds of Americans say that “the U.S. should only invade Iraq with UN approval and the support of its allies,” while 13 percent say the U.S. should not invade Iraq in any case.
This stance comes despite an overwhelming majority seeing the possibility of Iraq’s developing weapons of mass destruction as a critical threat to U.S. interests and the frigid ratings that most people give to Hussein and to Iraq on a “feeling thermometer.” Even so, the public wants military action to depend on multilateral support.
The same is true of using U.S. troops to resist invasions of one country by another. Saudi Arabia and its supplies of energy are considered important by most Americans. Three-quarters of the respondents (77 percent) say that if Iraq were to invade Saudi Arabia, they would favor the U.S.’s “contributing military forces, together with other countries, to a UN-sponsored effort to reverse the aggression.”
Yet when no such multilateral support is specified, only 48 percent say they would favor using U.S. troops if Iraq invaded Saudi Arabia. In none of the four invasion scenarios that were asked about (Iraq invading Saudi Arabia; North Korea invading South Korea; Arab forces invading Israel and China invading Taiwan) did a majority favor using U.S. troops when multilateral support was not mentioned.
Non-military approaches
Support for a cooperative foreign policy is also evident in the very high public approval for using diplomatic and multilateral approaches to combat terrorism.
Overwhelming majorities of the public favor diplomatic efforts to apprehend suspects and dismantle terrorist training camps, diplomatic efforts to improve U.S. relations with potential adversary countries and setting up an international system to cut off funding for terrorism. Eighty-three percent of Americans say they favor the trial of suspected terrorists in an international criminal court.
As part of the fight on terrorism, large majorities also favor helping poor countries develop their economies and “making a major effort to be even-handed” in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
In general, the great majority (71 percent) say the United States should do its share in problem solving “together with other countries,” while only 17 percent believe that “as the sole remaining superpower, the U.S. should continue to be the preeminent world leader in solving world problems.”
Huddling with allies
Americans turn first in their search for cooperative solutions to longtime allies and friends in Europe and Canada. Despite reports of U.S.-European policy differences and perhaps a deeper political and cultural rift, most Americans express warm feelings about America’s European allies. They consider them quite important and say that the U.S. and the European Union “should be more willing to make decisions jointly, even if this means that the U.S., as well as Europe, will sometimes have to go along with a policy that is not its first choice.”
The countries of the European Union are seen by the most Americans as reliable partners in the war on terrorism. While a slight majority of Americans prefer that the United States remain the only superpower, a large majority (79 percent) wants the European Union to take a leadership role in the world. Americans reject a “division of labor” in which the U.S. takes the lead in military matters and Europe in economic aid or social reconstruction.
NATO and Russia
Americans’ preferences for a cooperative, multilateral foreign policy are also evident in attitudes about the NATO alliance and relations with Russia.
Most consider the NATO alliance to still be “essential,” even after the end of the Cold War. Two-thirds of Americans want to keep our commitment to NATO what it is now. Majorities favor expanding NATO to all of the Central and Eastern European countries they were asked about: Russia, Romania, Slovakia, the Baltic states and Bulgaria.
Especially striking is that, little more than 10 years after the end of the Cold War–during which NATO was dedicated to defense against the Soviet Union–two-thirds of Americans want to include Russia in NATO.
Americans’ view of Russian military power as a critical threat has dropped to a very low point. Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, are given fairly warm ratings on the “feeling thermometer,” and the Bush administration’s handling of Russia is rated more highly than any other aspect of its foreign policy. Most Americans clearly like the idea of a cooperative relationship with Russia.
Support for the UN
A large majority of Americans say that they favor strengthening the UN and that doing so should be a “very important” goal of U.S. foreign policy. They also support working through the UN to strengthen international laws against terrorism and to make sure UN members enforce them.
American public support for international institutions “to deal with shared problems” extends to organizations other than the UN. Majorities agree that the World Trade Organization and the World Court should be strengthened. Pluralities extend this support to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
In the council’s survey Americans rate President Bush highly on a “feeling thermometer,” and other recent surveys show high support (70-72 percent) for his overall job performance. Only a modest majority gives his administration excellent or good marks for its foreign policy (53 percent). Perhaps one reason is the apparent conflict between the strong public desire for cooperative multilateralism and the perceived unilateralist tendencies of the White House.
One possible response is to dismiss public opinion as ill-informed and irrelevant. Certainly the average American has plenty of things to do other than becoming an expert on world affairs. Foreign policy decision makers traditionally have considered themselves much better able than ordinary citizens to figure out what is in the best interests of the nation.
Underestimated sophistication
Yet the council’s and other surveys suggest that the U.S. public has a considerably more sophisticated view of foreign policy than it is usually given credit for having.
Americans do not like their newfound vulnerability to terrorism, and they want to respond forcefully, but they clearly still believe that we will be better served by policies that have the understanding and support of other nations and the endorsement of the American people.
They are worth listening to.
Which of the following do you see as possible threats to the vital interest of the United States in the next 10 years?
– The threat of international terrorism: 98%
Chemical, biological weapons
Critical: 86%
Not sure: 0%
Not important: 2%
Important: 12%
Iraq developing weapons of mass destruction
Critical: 86%
Not sure: 2%
Not important: 1%
Important: 11%
Islamic fundamentalism
Critical: 61%
Not sure: 7%
Not important: 8%
Important: 24%
In order to combat terrorism, please say whether you favor or oppose each of the following measures
U.S. air strikes against terrorist training camps, other facilities: 87% favor
Attacks by U.S. ground troops against terrorist training camps: 84% favor
Assassination of individual terrorist leaders: 66% favor
What do you see as the most important lesson of Sept. 11?
Need to be alert: 15%
Be prepared: 12%
Americans pulling together: 11%
Increased security: 8%
We’re vulnerable: 7%
Agencies need to share information, act sooner: 7%
Need to be aware of foreign affairs: 6%
Don’t trust anyone: 6%
Need stronger defense against terrorism: 5%
Need to watch, maintain our borders: 5%
Take one day at a time, be grateful you’re alive: 5%
Better homeland security: 5%
What do you think is the more important lesson of Sept. 11? That the United States…
Needs to work more closely with other countries: 61%
Needs to act on its own more: 34%
Power sharing: Which statement comes closest to your position?
As the sole remaining superpower, the U.S. should continue to be the preeminent world leader in solving international problems. 17%
The U.S. should withdraw from most efforts to solve international problems. 9%
The U.S. should do its share in efforts to solve international problems together with other countries: 71%
How Americans see the world . . . (and the nature of U.S. power)
A year after the terrorist attack on New York and the Pentagon, the Chicago Council/German Marshall Fund study shows Americans are paying much closer attention to foreign news and developments. They also generally believe that playing a strong leadership role in world affairs is best for the nation’s future.
From your point of view, how desirable is it that the U.S. exert strong leadership in world affairs?
41% of Americans said: Very desirable
Somewhat desirable: 42%
Somewhat undesirable: 9%
Very undesirable: 5%
Neither/not sure: 3%
When you follow the news these days, how interested are you in reports about other countries?
Very interested
1998: 29%
2002: 42%
Somewhat interested
1998: 46%
2002: 42%
Hardly interested
1998: 22%
2002: 15%
Don’t follow news
1998: 1%
2002: 0%
Not sure
1998: 2%
2002: 1%
What do you feel are the two or three biggest problems facing the country today?
Terrorism
1998: 0%
2002: 36%
Economy
1998: 11%
2002: 22%
Education
1998: 15%
2002: 11%
Defense
1998: 1%
2002: 10%
Unemployment
1998: 9%
2002: 9%
What do you feel are the two or three biggest foreign policy problems facing the United States today?
Terrorism
1998: 12%
2002: 33%
Middle East situation
1998: 8%
2002: 12%
Unrest in Israel
1998: 0%
2002: 9%
Foreign aid
1998: 7%
2002: 8%
Affairs of other countries
1998: 7%
2002: 7%
Should defense spending be expanded, cut back or kept about the same?
Expanded
1998: 30%
2002: 44%
Cut back
1998: 28%
2002: 15%
Kept same
1998: 38%
2002: 38%
Not sure
1998: 4%
2002: 3%
Should intelligence gathering on other countries be expanded, cut back or kept about the same?
Expanded
1998: 27%
2002: 66%
Cut back
1998: 22%
2002: 6%
Kept same
1998: 43%
2002: 25%
Not sure/decline
1998: 8%
2002: 3%
Do you think it will be best for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs or if we stay out of world affairs?
Active part
1998: 61%
2002: 71%
Stay out
1998: 28%
2002: 25%
Not sure/decline
1998: 11%
2002: 4%
Does the U.S. have a vital interest in these countries?
Japan
YES (2002): 83%
YES (1998): 87%
Saudi Arabia
YES (2002): 83%
YES (1998): 77%
China
YES (2002): 83%
YES (1998): 74%
Russia
YES (2002): 81%
YES (1998): 77%
Israel
YES (2002): 79%
YES (1998): 69%
Britain
YES (2002): 78%
YES (1998): 66%
Canada
YES (2002): 76%
YES (1998): 69%
Iraq
YES (2002): 76%
YES (1998): Not available
Pakistan
YES (2002): 76%
YES (1998): Not available
Iran
YES (2002): 75%
YES (1998): 61%
Afghanistan
YES (2002): 73%
YES (1998): 45%
Germany
YES (2002): 68%
YES (1998): 60%
France
YES (2002): 53%
YES (1998): 37%
Do you think the U.S. should have long-term military bases in the following places?
Cuba
Should: 70%
Should not: 27%
Germany
Should: 69%
Should not: 28%
South Korea
Should: 67%
Should not: 27%
Philippines
Should: 66%
Should not: 30%
Saudi Arabia
Should: 65%
Should not: 32%
Japan
Should: 63%
Should not: 33%
Turkey
Should: 58%
Should not: 34%
Afghanistan
Should: 57%
Should not: 40%
Pakistan
Should: 52%
Should not: 41%
Uzbekistan
Should: 41%
Should not: 42%
(How Americans see the world) . . . and the nature of U.S. power
Europeans are worried about America’s inclination to push its superpower status and leadership role, the survey shows, but is clear they want to play a more aggressive role themselves. Despite Americans’ concerns, they clearly have little interest in being the world’s policemen.
Which statement comes closer to your position about the United States and the European Union?
The U.S. should remain the only superpower
52% of Americans said yes
14% of Europeans said yes
The European Union should become a superpower like the U.S.
33% of Americans said yes
65% of Europeans said yes
No country should be a superpower
7% of Americans said yes
17% of Europeans said yes
Do you think the United States has the responsibility to play the role of ‘world politician’?
62% of Americans said no
Which of these views about NATO is closer to your own?
It is still essential.
U.S.: 56%
Europe: 69%
It is no longer essential.
U.S.: 30%
Europe: 25%
Don’t know
U.S.: 14%
Europe: 6%
For each of the following reasons, would you approve the use of military troops?
To ensure supply of oil
U.S.: 65%
Europe: 49%
To destroy a terrorist camp
U.S.: 92%
Europe: 75%
To help bring peace in a region where there is civil war
U.S.: 48%
Europe: 72%
How important is it that the U.S. have a foreign policy goal to combat international terrorism?
Very important
1998: 79%
2002: 91%
Somewhat important
1998: 17
2002: 7
Not important
1998: 2
2002: 1
Not sure/decline
1998: 2
2002: 1
How would you rate the following countries as U.S. partners in the war on terrorism?
Percent saying “very or somewhat reliable”
European Union 77%
Russia 74%
Japan 69%
Israel 67%
Pakistan 43%
China 41%
Saudi Arabia 31%
Would you favor or oppose the use of U.S. troops if…
North Korea invaded South Korea
Favor: 36%
Not sure: 8%
Oppose: 56%
Iraq invaded Saudi Arabia
Favor: 48%
Not sure: 6%
Oppose: 46%
Arab forces invaded Israel
Favor: 48%
Not sure: 7%
Oppose: 45%
China invaded Taiwan
Favor: 32%
Not sure: 10%
Oppose: 58%
Common interests, differing agendas
Americans believe their political interests are more strongly tied to Europe than to Asia, but there are many areas of disagreement between the United States and Europe.
Common interests, differing agendas
Which continent is more important to the United States, Asia or Europe?
58% of Americans said Europe
27% of Americans said Asia
10% of Americans said equally important
Residents in six European countries and the U.S. were asked these questions:
Should aid to education in your country be expanded, cut back or kept about the same?
Great Britain
Expanded: 77%
Cut back: 1%
Kept same: 21%
France
Expanded: 68%
Cut back: 2%
Kept same: 28%
Germany
Expanded: 73%
Cut back: 5%
Kept same: 21%
The Netherlands
Expanded: 75%
Cut back: 1%
Kept same: 23%
Italy
Expanded: 78%
Cut back: 4%
Kept same: 18%
Poland
Expanded: 83%
Cut back: 3%
Kept same: 12%
Europe
Expanded: 75%
Cut back: 3%
Kept same: 21%
United States
Expanded: 75%
Cut back: 4%
Kept same: 21%
Should defense spending in your country be expanded, cut back or kept about the same?
Great Britain
Expanded: 24%
Cut back: 21%
Kept same: 53%
France
Expanded: 28%
Cut back: 23%
Kept same: 47%
Germany
Expanded: 14%
Cut back: 45%
Kept same: 38%
The Netherlands
Expanded: 6%
Cut back: 38%
Kept same: 53%
Italy
Expanded: 12%
Cut back: 52%
Kept same: 33%
Poland
Expanded: 45%
Cut back: 14%
Kept same: 36%
Europe
Expanded: 22%
Cut back: 33%
Kept same: 42%
United States
Expanded: 44%
Cut back: 15%
Kept same: 38%
Should programs that fight crime in your country be expanded, cut back or kept about the same?
Great Britain
Expanded: 87%
Cut back: 2%
Kept same: 11%
France
Expanded: 82%
Cut back: 3%
Kept same: 14%
Germany
Expanded: 67%
Cut back: 5%
Kept same: 27%
The Netherlands
Expanded: 77%
Cut back: 2%
Kept same: 21%
Italy
Expanded: 79%
Cut back: 3%
Kept same: 17%
Poland
Expanded: 87%
Cut back: 2%
Kept same: 9%
Europe
Expanded: 79%
Cut back: 3%
Kept same: 17%
United States
Expanded: 70%
Cut back: 5%
Kept same: 24%
Residents in six European countries and the U.S. were asked these questions:
Which of the following do you think is more important in determining a country’s overall power and influence in the world? Economic strength or military strength?
Great Britain
Economic strength: 81%
Military strength: 15%
France
Economic strength: 89%
Military strength: 9%
Germany
Economic strength: 80%
Military strength: 16%
The Netherlands
Economic strength: 89%
Military strength: 7%
Italy
Economic strength: 88%
Military strength: 10%
Poland
Economic strength: 83%
Military strength: 11%
Europe
Economic strength: 84%
Military strength: 12%
United States
Economic strength: 66%
Military strength: 27%
There has been some discussion about whether the U.S. should invade Iraq and overthrow the government of Saddam Hussein. Which of the following positions is closest to yours?
The U.S. should not invade
Europe: 26%
United States: 13%
The U.S. should only invade Iraq with UN approval and the support of its allies.
Europe: 60%
United States: 65%
The U.S. should invade even if it has to do it alone.
Europe: 10%
United States: 20%
In the Middle East conflict, would you like to see the European Union be more involved in negotiations while also bearing more of the political and economic costs?
Great Britain
Yes: 71%
No: 23%
France
Yes: 68%
No: 28%
Germany
Yes: 57%
No: 39%
The Netherlands
Yes: 67%
No: 27%
Italy
Yes: 73%
No: 22%
Poland
Yes: 56%
No: 26%
Europe
Yes: 65%
No: 29%
United States
Yes: 83%
No: 11%
How do you rate the Bush administration’s handling of foreign policy?
53%: excellent (13%) or good (40%)
31% fair
13% poor
Living with Islam
Americans disagree with arguments that Islam is incompatible with Western culture and that violent clashes are inevitable.
To what degree do you believe the attacks on America represent the true teachings of Islam?
to a great degree: 21%
to some degree: 18%
not very much: 17%
not at all: 40%
Which statement comes closest to your position?
Because Muslim religious, social and political traditions are incompatible with Western ways, violent conflict between the two civilizations is inevitable: 27%
Because most Muslims are like people everywhere, we can find common ground and violent conflict between the civilizations is not inevitable: 66%
How the poll was conducted
The U.S. survey included 3,262 interviews to get a representative national sample of American men and women 18 years old or older. The European survey consisted of representative samples of 1,000 men and women, 18 years old or older, in each of six countries: Great Britain, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Poland. The surveys were conducted by Harris Interactive in the United States and MORI in Europe. Both surveys began June 5. The U.S. survey ended June 30; the European survey ended July 6. The margin of error in the poll, determined by the size of the sample for each question, is 2 to 4 percent in the United States and plus or minus 3 percentage points in Europe.
