Name confusion between Gov. George Ryan and the Republican who wants to succeed him is lessening among the state’s voters, but that hasn’t helped Jim Ryan cut into Democrat Rod Blagojevich’s sizable lead in the race for governor, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.
The survey also showed Democratic candidate for attorney general Lisa Madigan holding on to a slim advantage over Republican Joe Birkett. But the results also show Madigan’s fate closely tied to voter concerns about her politically powerful father, Michael Madigan, the Illinois House speaker.
Incumbents in races for the U.S. Senate, secretary of state, state treasurer and comptroller all held comfortable advantages over lesser known and poorly funded challengers, according to the survey of 600 voters who say they expect to cast a ballot in the Nov. 5 general election.
With little more than four weeks until Election Day, the poll found Blagojevich, a Northwest Side congressman, with support from 51 percent of those surveyed, compared to 35 percent for Jim Ryan, the state’s attorney general. Another 11 percent were undecided, while 2 percent said they backed Libertarian Cal Skinner and 1 percent said they supported another candidate.
In the contentious race for attorney general, the poll showed Lisa Madigan, a North Side state senator, with support from 42 percent of those surveyed while 37 percent backed Birkett, the DuPage County state’s attorney. Another 17 percent were undecided, while 3 percent said they supported Libertarian Gary Shilts and 1 percent backed other candidates.
The poll, conducted Sept. 27 to Oct. 1 by Market Shares Corp. of Mt. Prospect, has an error margin of 4 percentage points.
The survey’s findings can be of little comfort to Jim Ryan, who has spent much of the general election campaign battling Republican Gov. George Ryan as well as Blagojevich. Jim Ryan has worked hard to make it clear to voters that he’s a different person from the governor, whose popularity plunged amid scandal and led him to announce his retirement after one term.
Advertising twist
Jim Ryan has gone so far as to put up billboards across the state that simply identify him as “JIM, a governor you can trust.”
Blagojevich, meanwhile, has actively sought to link the two Ryans together in the minds of voters.
In August, a similar Tribune/WGN-TV poll showed voters were confusing the Ryans. At that time, Blagojevich held a 17 percentage point advantage over Jim Ryan, but the Democrat’s lead narrowed to only 10 percentage points when voters were reminded that George Ryan was the governor and Jim Ryan the candidate running for the office.
But in the latest survey, name confusion over the Ryans was far less evident. Blagojevich’s 16 percentage point edge over the Republican Ryan eroded only slightly, to 13 percentage points, after voters were told how to distinguish between the Ryans.
Moreover, despite the recent launch of Jim Ryan’s television advertising campaign, the Republican has failed to make any significant inroads against Blagojevich, who has an ample political war chest and has been spending it on TV advertising for much longer.
Sign of tough times
One telling sign of problems for Jim Ryan is that only 14 percent of voters said they thought he has the best chance of winning the race, while nearly half said Blagojevich did. Even more troubling for Ryan was the response given by voters who said they intended to cast their ballot for him. Only 30 percent of them said they believed he would win, and another 21 percent of them conceded that Blagojevich would probably win.
By contrast, 72 percent of Blagojevich voters said they thought he would win. Still, such lopsided results indicate Blagojevich could have a problem of voter complacency on his hands.
Though he is not seeking re-election, the poll showed George Ryan remains a significant factor in the governor’s race. Those supporting Blagojevich cited among their top reasons for backing him the belief that he would clean up state government corruption. They also believe he would do more for public schools than Jim Ryan.
In contrast, Jim Ryan supporters say the Republican would handle the governor’s job better than Blagojevich and would do more to improve the economy and create jobs.
In addition, more than eight out of 10 voters said the issue of corruption will be on their minds when they go to the polls, although 42 percent of those surveyed said they thought neither Republicans nor Democrats could be trusted to clean up state government and 48 percent said both political parties were likely to engage in “sweetheart deals, cronyism and use of state employees for political campaigning.”
With Jim Ryan showing little improvement against Blagojevich, the attention and dollars of some Republicans has shifted to the contest for attorney general between Lisa Madigan and Birkett. Though the race is tight, Lisa Madigan, thanks to the organizational clout that her father commands, will have a formidable edge in making sure her voters get to the polls.
The survey found voter attitudes toward Lisa Madigan were lukewarm, with 29 percent of those surveyed saying they viewed her favorably and 27 percent saying they had an unfavorable opinion of her. Those feelings correspond to attitudes toward Michael Madigan, who runs the Illinois Democratic Party as well as the House. By overwhelming margins, the poll showed voters who had an unfavorable opinion of Michael Madigan had an unfavorable opinion of his daughter, and vice versa.
Controversial campaign
Michael Madigan’s role in his daughter’s campaign has been fraught with controversy. The speaker has used his considerable clout to steer campaign cash and endorsements his daughter’s way.
Negative attitudes toward the Madigans clearly are a factor in keeping the attorney general’s race close, since virtually all the voters surveyed said they had heard of Lisa Madigan while only two-thirds said they had heard of Birkett.
Separately, 23 percent of voters said they believed Lisa Madigan, if elected, would be less effective than Birkett in handling cases of corruption that would involve Democrats because of her father. And 28 percent said they thought Michael Madigan was a disadvantage to Lisa Madigan’s candidacy.
Momentum swing
The poll found, however, that Lisa Madigan was gaining traction with her criticism of Birkett for accepting campaign donations from criminal defense attorneys who cut plea deals for clients with his prosecutor’s office. A total of 44 percent of the voters said they believed the practice made him “less effective” as a prosecutor. That cuts into Birkett’s campaign theme that his experience as state’s attorney far outweighs the Democrat’s skimpier resume as a lawyer.
In other races, Democratic Dick Durbin held a wide advantage in his re-election contest for the U.S. Senate, while Democratic Secretary of State Jesse White, Democratic Comptroller Dan Hynes, and Republican State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka also led their re-election battles by comfortable margins.
Durbin held a 51 percent to 26 percent advantage over Republican James Durkin, a state representative from Westchester.
Durkin, who survived a three-way Republican primary to win the nomination, has had difficulty generating money and attention in the contest, although Durbin’s recent decision not to back a war resolution sought by the Bush administration to allow a potential invasion of Iraq has kindled some interest in the race.
White had the support of two-thirds of the voters in his bid for a second term against Republican Kristine O’Rourke Cohn of Rockford, who had 17 percent, the poll showed.
Cohn has made few gains against White despite her attempts to exploit several problems he has had in administering the office. Cohn, who chairs the Winnebago County Board, is making her first bid for statewide office.
The poll also found Hynes, who is eyeing a potential run for the U.S. Senate in 2004, with the support of 42 percent of voters compared to 18 percent for his Republican challenger, Thomas Jefferson Ramsdell III.
Topinka, meanwhile, was backed by half of the voters surveyed while her Democratic challenger, state Rep. Thomas Dart of Chicago, had 22 percent.
