Baseball is as complicated as you want to make it.
The new wave of experts, begun about 20 years ago by pioneers like Bill James and Craig Wright, is waging a numerological assault on the simplicity of the sport.
Often writing for Web sites and weekly or semiannual periodicals, and without the commitment of following any given team’s games and maintaining relationships with players and managers, these detached thinkers have gained a foothold that has changed the way all of us look at the sport–sometimes for the better, occasionally for the worse.
But even in this information age, the simplest theories still work.
Here is one of those: It is a very good thing to go into a season with a stable of established starting pitchers coming off workhorse seasons.
That’s why the Anaheim Angels and San Francisco Giants really weren’t such surprises. It’s why we would argue the White Sox, Toronto, Philadelphia, Montreal (barring subtractions) and the New York Mets are shaping up as the most likely “surprise” teams for the 2003 World Series.
It’s also why those teams, among others, should be fighting to sign pitchers Chuck Finley, Jeff Suppan, Kenny Rogers, Paul Wilson and Ismael Valdes. The five free agents are among 55 pitchers who worked at least 190 innings in 30-plus starts last season.
For the last six months, I’ve been kicking myself for not picking the Angels (instead of Seattle) as a playoff team last season.
That’s because more than once I wrote that Anaheim was the only team in the majors entering 2002 with five starters coming off 30/190 seasons. In fact, they were the only team that went to spring training with more than three.
Reliable starting pitching is perhaps the biggest factor in separating contenders from pretenders. The eight teams that went to the ’02 playoffs were the only ones that entered the season with at least three starters coming off 30/190 seasons in the big leagues.
Another way to illustrate the impact of known workhorses: The 15 teams that were .500 or better started with an average of 2.5 starters who were 30/190 pitchers; the 15 that finished the season with losing records started with an average of 1.2 who were 30/190 men.
What does that tell us for next season?
For one thing, Minnesota could be in trouble. An unexpectedly strong bullpen and the emergence of the unsung Kyle Lohse hid the fact Joe Mays, Eric Milton and Brad Radke went backward during the Twins’ division-winning season. Minnesota will likely enter spring without a 30/190 starter.
For another, the White Sox are in excellent shape to dethrone the Twins. Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland and Dan Wright all carried 30/190 workloads last season.
There’s no reason general manager Ken Williams couldn’t add one of the available 30/190 men. After non-tendering Todd Ritchie–who still could return–and Jim Parque, the Sox are obligated for only about $36.9 million to nine players under contract.
It’s unclear where club Chairman Jerry Reinsdorf wants the payroll. But he has room to cherry-pick the long list of free agents for another $7 million to $8 million worth of talent and still open the season at $50 million, down from $57 million at the start of 2002.
Manager Jerry Manuel is sure to disagree, but four 30/190 starters–provided they remain healthy–should just about guarantee a playoff spot in the American League Central. Cleveland’s C.C. Sabathia and Detroit’s Mark Redman are the only other 30/190 starters on Central rosters.
Because Atlanta dumped Kevin Millwood, no major-league team currently has more than three 30/190 starters. Atlanta, Montreal, the Mets, Philadelphia, Oakland, Toronto and the White Sox are the only teams with three.
Six of the returning playoff teams–Anaheim, the Yankees, San Francisco, Arizona, Atlanta and St. Louis–currently have only two 30/190 starters under contract. The Yankees view Cuban import Jose Contreras in that same light.
But like promising pitchers entering their first full seasons or rookies coming off injury-shortened seasons, he’s much more of a dice roll than, say, Mike Mussina or any one of Oakland’s Barry Zito-Mark Mulder-Tim Hudson trio.
The Cubs (Kerry Wood and Matt Clement) are as solid at the top of the rotation as anyone in the National League Central, and better than most if Mark Prior is as reliable as expected.
St. Louis (Matt Morris and Brett Tomko), Cincinnati (Jimmy Haynes and Ryan Dempster), Pittsburgh (Kip Wells and Josh Fogg) and Milwaukee (Ben Sheets and Glendon Rusch) all also have two 30/190 men. Houston has only Roy Oswalt, although Wade Miller has been equally terrific when healthy.
Signings don’t have to be dramatic to be effective. Arizona might have won the NL West when it signed the non-tendered Rick Helling last Jan. 20. He made 30 starts, eating up innings behind Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling.
Kevin Appier and Aaron Sele similarly weren’t huge successes in Anaheim, but they provided manager Mike Scioscia with enough options that he had a surplus when fresh arms like John Lackey and Francisco Rodriguez arrived.
If a team with an already deep rotation, such as the Sox, adds Suppan, Wilson or one of the other 30/190 men available, it could turn into one of the best moves of the winter.
Looking to Pettitte: While the Yankees would love to trade Orlando Hernandez or Sterling Hitchcock, they may have to consider dealing Andy Pettitte. If Reinsdorf could stomach his $11.5 million price tag, he would be a good fit.
There’s nothing flashy about Pettitte. But he’s a stable force in the clubhouse and has proved his toughness in the biggest of games.
With Roger Clemens and Contreras under contract, the Yankees have eight starting pitchers. That includes Mussina, David Wells and Jeff Weaver. They also have intriguing prospects in Danny Borrell and Julio DePaula, who could come along quickly. Yet GM Brian Cashman says he’ll continue talking to Montreal about Bartolo Colon and Javier Vazquez.
Cashman is looking for relievers in trades. The bullpen could be a White Sox strength. Billy Koch, Antonio Osuna and Damaso Marte are in the mix. Edwin Almonte and lefties Arnaldo Munoz and David Sanders could push Gary Glover, Matt Ginter, Kelly Wunsch and Mike Porzio for jobs in spring training.
Bullpen overhauls: The Cubs and Rangers had the majors’ two worst bullpens last season. Both have made major upgrades.
While the Cubs have added only new arms in Mike Remlinger, Dave Veres and a postsurgery Rod Beck, Texas appears to have improved even more. Free agents Ugueth Urbina and Esteban Yan, who combined for 59 saves last season, will headline a bullpen that already included one double-figure save man in Francisco Cordero.
“Everyone knows we’re going to score,” Rangers assistant GM Dan O’Brien said. “Other pitchers look at the fact we blew 33-of-66 saves and that if we could just improve that by one half, think of the difference that could make in a season.”
The Rangers also added former Giants lefty Aaron Fultz and hope they’ll find a second serviceable left-hander from a group of minor-league free agents that includes C.J. Nitkowski, Ron Mahay and Brian Shouse. Their returning right-handers include Cordero, Danny Kolb, Jay Powell and Todd Van Poppel.
