In the 24 years since the NCAA began to seed its men’s basketball tournament field, the Big Ten Conference has never failed to draw a top 16 seed.
But that may change when the 2003 brackets are unveiled in 19 days. If the 65-team field were selected this week, the Big Ten’s highest slot in any of the four regionals would be a No. 5 seed, according to a person familiar with the selection committee’s thinking.
Fourth and fifth seeds are virtually indistinguishable. But it shows the committee doubts the Big Ten has a team capable of surviving the tourney’s first weekend, when the field is winnowed to 16.
This came as a surprise to Illinois coach Bill Self. “The best team in our league I can’t imagine ever being below a 4 seed,” he said.
Two months after the Big Ten dominated the football bowls and claimed its second national title in six years, the conference is clamoring for respect on the basketball court, but receiving little.
Conference strength runs in cycles, and it may have been only a matter of time before the Big Ten slipped. The first blemishes began to appear last year, when Minnesota failed to make the NCAA field despite a winning conference record, an unprecedented snub.
Indiana silenced the doubters when it became the sixth Big Ten representative to reach the Final Four in the last four years, most in the nation. But questions lingered when this season tipped off.
There are several reasons for the perception that the Big Ten has faltered.
The conference’s plodding style of play wins few admirers and doesn’t improve its image. With few marquee players and an unusually heavy reliance on freshmen, Big Ten teams have struggled against power teams from rival conferences. And without a realistic national title contender, the Big Ten isn’t attracting much attention outside the region. Unlike the Big 12 or the Southeastern Conference, it hasn’t had a Top 10 showdown all year.
“Parity creates the thought of mediocrity in a lot of people’s minds,” Self said.
Its coaches like to boast about the Big Ten’s balance. That’s a kind way of explaining how Wisconsin, a contender for the league title, could lose to Penn State, which had not defeated a team with an RPI better than 220.
“We’re all prejudiced toward each other,” Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said. “We feel that the league’s a little better than maybe the national recognition it has been getting. We are beating up on each other.”
They’re also getting beaten up in the media. At halftime of CBS’ national telecast of Kansas-Oklahoma on Sunday, analyst Billy Packer forecast a “short and sweet” NCAA tourney run for the Big Ten.
“Billy Packer’s not on the committee, thank God,” Purdue coach Gene Keady said Monday. “He hasn’t seen us play. He doesn’t know. To say the Big Ten is down or has not a chance to play far into the NCAAs remains to be seen.”
On Monday, two formal NCAA tournament bracket guesses, one in USA Today and the other on ESPN.com, predicted that no Big Ten team would be seeded higher than fifth.
Those are opinions. But they’re based on facts.
– Fact: The Big Ten is 8-17 against teams in the Top 50 RPI, according to one Internet replication of the RPI formula used by NCAA selectors as they put together the tourney field. The latest blow came Sunday, when Michigan State lost to 15th-ranked Syracuse 76-75 in East Lansing. The loss left MSU 14-11. After advancing to the Final Four three consecutive years from 1999-2001 and winning the national title in 2000, the Spartans may miss the NCAAs. Since defeating mighty Kentucky 71-67 in Lexington on Dec. 14, the Spartans are 9-9.
– Fact: The Big Ten is fourth in the latest conference RPIs, less than 1/100th of a point ahead of the Big East and far behind the front-running SEC. That’s an improvement over last season’s No. 6 finish. But it’s a steep drop from 1998-2001, when the Big Ten ranked third, first, second and first, respectively.
– Fact: The Big Ten’s first-place team, Michigan, is not eligible for the NCAA tournament.
– Fact: At No. 26, Purdue owns the Big Ten’s loftiest RPI. But the Boilermakers have lost four of their last five games and may squander what looked like a guaranteed NCAA tourney berth two weeks ago. “Our kids haven’t learned how to handle winning very well,” Keady said. “I guess we got soft.”
Soft is how some describe the once-rugged Big Ten. But with the NCAA tournament fast approaching, the conference will have a fresh opportunity to answer the critics.
“Everybody’s making claims that this is the strongest league or that is,” Self said, “But it’s all going to play out based on how you do in March.”
RPI by conference
Conference RPIs
Southeastern .5925
Big 12 .5887
Atlantic Coast .5844
Big Ten .5662
Big East 5645
Mountain West .5611
Pac-10 .5582
Conference USA .5516
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Major conferences with most entries in the RPI Top 50:
1. Southeastern: 7 teams–No. 3 Kentucky, No. 6 Georgia, No. 8 Florida, No. 21 Mississippi State, No. 25 Alabama, No. 32 Auburn, No. 48 Tennessee.
2. Big Ten: 6 teams–No. 26 Purdue, No. 27 Illinois, No. 30 Wisconsin, No. 36 Indiana, No. 38 Michigan State, No. 46 Minnesota.
3. Big 12: 6 teams–No. 1 Texas, No. 6 Oklahoma, No. 11 Kansas, No. 13 Oklahoma State, No. 17 Missouri, No. 48 Texas Tech.
4. Big East: 6 teams–No. 5 Notre Dame, No. 13 Syracuse, No. 19 Pitt, No. 35 Seton Hall, No. 37 Connecticut, No. 50 Boston College.
RPIs are replications of the NCAA’s RPI formula, according to analyst Jerry Palm’s Web site, collegerpi.com.
The rating game
A look at how the Big Ten teams rate, according to the Ratings Percentage Index, with overall and conference records:
RPI TEAM RECORDS
26 Purdue 16-8, 8-5
27 Illinois 18-5, 8-4
30 Wisconsin 19-6, 9-4
36 Indiana 16-9, 6-6
38 Michigan State 14-11, 6-6
46 Minnesota 16-7, 8-4
51 Michigan 16-9, 9-3
57 Ohio State 13-11, 6-7
105 Iowa 13-10, 5-7
165 Northwestern 10-14, 2-11
184 Penn State 6-17, 1-11
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