Before the NCAA tournament moves on to the Sweet Sixteen, how about a round of applause for the Sweat Sixteen?
Sixteen games on the tournament’s first weekend were decided by five points or fewer. And those nail-biters don’t include Marquette’s 101-92 overtime victory over Missouri in the Midwest’s second round, or Duke’s 67-57 opening-round win over Colorado State, which the Blue Devils led by two with 1 minute 24 seconds left.
Though there were few stunning upsets, the wave of thrillers left players, coaches and fans wrung out.
“There have been so many close games,” said Duke senior Chris Duhon, who kept an eye on the rest of the nation from his hotel room in Salt Lake City. “I think it’s great for the game that people don’t know who’s going to win. This year is the ultimate example of that.”
Despite all the close calls, this year’s Sweet Sixteen looks a lot like it has in recent years: It’s a BCS party.
Schools that participate in football’s big-money Bowl Championship Series are once again dominating the basketball postseason. Fourteen of the remaining 16 schools are BCS members, the same number as a year ago.
Likewise, the odds of a surprise national champion appear to be dwindling. The last six schools to win it all–Maryland, Duke, Michigan State, Connecticut, Kentucky and Arizona–are still in the field.
Most of the marquee programs survived the first weekend, but few waltzed.
The West Regional, widely viewed as this field’s toughest bracket, ought to be renamed the Maalox Invitational. Fifth-seeded Notre Dame won its opener 70-69 when Wisconsin-Milwaukee blew a gimme at the horn. Fourth-seeded Illinois, which some considered a Final Four candidate, lost to Notre Dame 68-60 in the second round. Third-seeded Duke received a first-round scare from Colorado State. Second-seeded Kansas nicked No. 15 Utah State 64-61 in the opening round.
And top-seeded Arizona had to play 50 minutes to hold off Gonzaga 96-95 in what might have been the most thrilling college game in the last decade.
“We’re not scared of anybody anymore,” said Zags guard Blake Stepp, whose 8-foot shot rimmed out in the final seconds.
Stepp was talking about Gonzaga, which probably could have won the Big Ten this year. But he was also speaking for schools on the outskirts of Bracketville. For four days, they scared the daylights out of their supposed superiors.
Wisconsin, the Big Ten regular-season champion, needed a fluke three-pointer to beat No. 13 Tulsa 61-60 in the Midwest’s second round. Maryland, the defending NCAA champion, needed the same thing to hold off No. 11 N.C. Wilmington 75-73 in the South’s opening round.
No. 14 Holy Cross battled Marquette into the final minute before falling 72-68 in the Midwest’s first round. Now the Golden Eagles know how Kentucky and Kansas felt after recent NCAA tourney run-ins with the Crusaders.
“I just always feel like these NCAA games come down to a possession or two or a missed free throw or two,” Central Michigan coach Jay Smith said. “It’s just very balanced.”
There are several reasons why this year’s games have been tighter.
First, credit the pod system with stacking the deck in “neutral” venues. Some 2,000 miles from Durham, Duke faced a virtual road game against Colorado State in Salt Lake City’s Huntsman Center. Likewise, the Huntsman crowd adopted Gonzaga against Arizona, giving the Zags a decided emotional lift.
Another factor is experience. As star players leave early for the NBA, the rosters of many big-time programs churn, forcing coaches to rely on younger players. Granted, those players are often blue chips, but they typically have far less experience than midmajor teams built around seniors.
“I think a lot of it is that a lot of the so-called big-time programs are playing with 18- and 19-year-old kids, and the teams you play against, some of them are 22, 23 and 24 years old,” Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said. “It’s not just the age. They’re not only older, but they have an ego about them as far as how they play.”
Krzyzewski said Colorado State’s bearded senior forward, Brian Greene, probably was not intimidated against the Blue Devils, who start two freshmen and only one senior.
“There isn’t any aura,” Krzyzewski said. “You walk out and you say, `I’ve got a beard and he doesn’t shave. Greene’s got to look at our guys and say, `Hey, we’re playing against four guys who don’t shave every day.'”
Another reason for the close calls is a so-so team from a big-time conference is often no more talented or prepared than a champion of a lesser league.
“I’ve often thought the seeds distort things,” said Mid-American Conference Commissioner Rick Chryst, whose unheralded conference has won five NCAA tourney games in the last three years. “When you look at Southern Illinois against Missouri on a neutral court in the regular season, you’d say, `That’ll be a great game.'”
And it was in the Midwest’s opening round, with the Tigers slipping past the Salukis with the help of a controversial call in the final seconds.
Likewise, Butler’s victory over neighboring Louisville in the East’s second round probably wouldn’t be considered an enormous upset if the teams had played on a neutral court in December, especially with Cardinals starting forward Ellis Myles sidelined. Over the last six seasons, Butler’s average RPI is 51. Louisville’s is 59.
“It seems like as we get farther along here, there’s more and more parity in college basketball, with the scholarship [limitations],” Gonzaga coach Mark Few said. “And the exposure that a lot of programs are getting via TV has really helped broaden the recruiting pool. I don’t think there’s that much difference this year between a 13 seed all the way down to a 4, or a 3. It’s tough to pick who has the better team out there.”
Look for the unpredictability to carry into this weekend, when the final four teams emerge. Duke against Kansas Thursday in the West semifinals is a classic matchup, as is Maryland against Michigan State on Friday in the South. There are also a couple of potential upsets, with defense-minded Wisconsin trying to drag Kentucky to its level Thursday and Butler hoping to surprise top-seeded Oklahoma, whose point guard, Hollis Price, is slowed by a groin injury, in the East on Friday.
If last weekend is any indication, the games should be tight.
“It’s as competitive as it’s ever been, and I don’t see that changing in any way, shape or form,” Krzyzewski said.
