The word of the week is “astounding.”
That’s the term used separately by two of the nation’s leading housing economists a few days ago when each took a second look into the old crystal ball and concluded that the housing picture is even rosier than they had thought.
The first wuzzah comes from David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, who has changed his mind and now thinks that home sales will eke out a record, after all, for the third consecutive year. He expects 5.6 million existing-home sales in 2003, an increase of one-half of 1 percent, and new-home sales to nudge up to 974,000 units, a bump of one-tenth of 1 percent.
He also revised his estimate for 30-year mortgage interest rates, which he earlier had pegged to hit 6.3 percent by year-end. He’s now seeing them hugging 5.7 percent.
You want more good news?
Fannie Mae, the mortgage giant, also has revised its expectations upward and now sees “an astounding $2.59 trillion” in refinancings alone for this year, according to its economist, David Berson.
He notes that such a figure would be almost as large as purchases and refinancings combined in 2002.
Now, I hate to interrupt two such obviously astounded men, but I feel I also ought to interject a little bit of leavening: A new federal report says that nationally, the growth of house-sale prices continues to slow down.
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, the governmental unit that keeps an eye on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reports that the average single-family sales price at the end of March was 6.48 percent higher than it was a year earlier, which is, of course, not going to make any sellers unhappy.
But this federal office says it sees a “steady pattern of gradual price deceleration” in the last several quarters and the rate of price growth at the end of the first quarter was the smallest in five years.
Among the 220 metropolitan areas that OFHEO tracks, prices for Chicago-area houses grew 5.4 percent in the last year, compared with 4.5 percent growth for Illinois overall.
News reports from all over
A California judge recently gave the nod to a plan that gives a whole new meaning to the concept of “subdivision” — the acrimoniously debated (but now set to launch) Newhall Ranch eventually will contain an unfathomable 20,885 new homes.
– A northern Virginia homeowners association recently banned Chevrolet Silverados, GMC Savanas, Chevy Avalanches and six other vans, sport-utility vehicles and pickups from parking on its streets. The reason: The vehicles are too big for fire trucks to get around on the high-density neighborhood’s narrow streets. The association is towing the “offenders.”
– The two largest home builders in Madison, Wis., recently announced an unusual merger. Don Simon Homes and Midland Builders will join to create Veridian Homes, which will specialize in “green” building techniques that are environmentally friendly and conserve energy. Further, it aims to build them at prices that will appeal mostly to first-time buyers, consumers who make less than Dane County’s median income.
– A cat in London has inherited the home of his late owner. The will of the 89-year-old woman who owned him specified that little Tinker should live in the house, valued at $560,000, and be cared for through a $160,000 trust fund.
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Hear Mary Umberger on WBBM Newsradio 780 at 6:21 p.m. and 10:22 p.m. each Thursday and Friday and 7:20 a.m. each Saturday and Sunday.
