Handicapping the winner of a golf tournament is easy. All you have to do is pick Tiger Woods.
Including his victory at the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah, Woods has won seven of the last 14 majors. Pick Tiger, you have a 50 percent chance of being right. How can you pass up those odds? I did once, and I’m still hearing about it.
In 1997 I wrote there was no way a 21-year-old Woods could win the Masters. Missed it by that much.
In my huge 5,679-word mea culpa, I said I would never pick against Woods again. So how could I go with anyone else in a U.S. Open in Chicago?
I was leaning in another direction until Woods threw up a 65 during the final round of the Memorial. That was the kick-start Woods needed.
Yes, Woods is struggling with his driver. But he won’t need it that much at Olympia Fields. His 3-woods and 2-iron stingers will provide plenty of length.
Woods also will be reminded this week that he has gone three straight majors without a victory. He hates that. It will give him extra motivation.
Of course, I have a 50 percent chance of being wrong. Trying to figure out who is going to take his place isn’t an easy task.
Quick show of hands: How many people predicted Retief Goosen would defeat Mark Brooks in a playoff to win the 2001 U.S. Open?
The U.S. Open always has its share of surprises mixing in with the favorites. It is one of the things that make the tournament so great.
So as that outstanding golfer Ken Harrelson would say, here are our picks to click–and not to click:
The favorites
Woods: Might have a chance.
Ernie Els: Needs to find the momentum he had at the beginning of the season.
Phil Mickelson: One of these days it has to happen for him.
Davis Love III: Will have to fight through off-the-course distractions.
Vijay Singh: Just don’t ask him about Annika Sorenstam.
The next level
Mike Weir: Lefty is confident he can make it two majors in a row.
David Toms: Has developed into a solid star.
Retief Goosen: Obviously knows how to win an Open.
Jim Furyk: Like Mickelson, he is due to win a major.
Padraig Harrington: The best of the Europeans.
Justin Leonard: Looking to pick up his second major.
Nobody would be surprised about these guys
Jeff Maggert: Always seems to play well in Opens.
Chris DiMarco: Consistent and a good putter.
Robert Allenby: 2000 Western winner hits a ton of greens.
Rocco Mediate: Straight driver makes him a threat in an Open.
Bob Estes: Another straight driver, but needs to make more putts.
Jerry Kelly: Will have a cheering section from Madison.
Possible surprises
Peter Lonard: The Australian was a semifinalist in World Match Play Championship.
Chad Campbell: Up-and-coming player on the PGA Tour.
Trevor Immelman: Up-and-coming player on the European Tour.
Craig Parry: Another Australian capable of sneaking in.
Loren Roberts: “The Boss of the Moss” knows his way around the greens.
Billy Mayfair: Finished in a tie for fifth last year.
Possible contenders, but against the odds
Nick Price: Thinks Open courses are too long for him.
Kenny Perry: Winning three in a row is asking too much.
Scott Hoch: Could be up there, but hard to see him getting to the top.
Favorites on the slide
Sergio Garcia: Should be a contender again, but not this year.
David Duval: The 62 was nice Friday, but he is hardly out of the hole.
Jesper Parnevik: Trying to work his way out of long slump.
Colin Montgomerie: Been a while since he challenged in an Open.
Favorites if this were the ’90s
Mark O’Meara: Hasn’t kept pace with other 40-somethings.
Corey Pavin: It’s a long way from his 1995 victory at Shinnecock Hills.
Nick Faldo: Had a nice 2002 Open, but best days behind him.
Bernhard Langer: Still a classy player to watch.
Best feel-good stories if they won
Jeff Sluman: If the Hinsdale resident can win a home Open, then his favorite team, the Cubs, can win the World Series.
Fred Couples: His back probably won’t allow it, but it would be hard to think of a more popular winner.
Len Mattiace: After coming so close in the Masters, it would be something if his dream were fulfilled in the Open.
Jay Haas: The ultimate Father’s Day gift. Winning the Open with son Bill in the field.
