If you’re a Democratic presidential candidate, there are few better places in America to come calling for money than the tony neighborhoods and immaculate boulevards of Beverly Hills.
For Howard Dean, the political star of the summer, the fashionable 90210 ZIP code provided a bigger treasure-trove than almost anywhere else and played an essential role in turning the unlikely candidacy of a former Vermont governor into that of a leading presidential hopeful.
His rivals have traveled here too, seeking money and endorsements from well-heeled donors and Democrat-loving celebrities.
But the presidential candidates’ California money drive has been unexpectedly complicated by the spectacle of the gubernatorial recall.
The unfolding drama of a wounded governor–challenged not only by Arnold Schwarzenegger but also by a string of lesser-known characters and even busty billboard queen Angelyne–could affect the Democratic primary and leave a trail of unknown consequences for the 2004 presidential campaign.
At this early stage of a presidential race, as the nine Democrats battle through a summer of obscurity, California should have been a safe harbor for candidates to harvest contributions and forge relationships with the Democratic Party’s elite in the nation’s most populous state.
August and September were intended to be a time to build war chests for an expensive winter of campaigning.
Absorbing political oxygen
With the Oct. 7 recall election absorbing the political oxygen in California, and to some degree across the country, presidential politics has suddenly become a far less relevant sport. And the Democrats, who desperately need to raise money to keep their candidacies afloat, were wondering late last week if the state could become a less lucrative or too politically volatile place to spend considerable time during the next two months.
“The recall will be tapping into the same kinds of donors that would normally be giving money to the presidential candidates,” said Mark DiCamillo, a longtime observer of California politics and director of the Field Poll. “If you assume it’s a zero-sum game, that people only give a certain amount of political money, it will take some money away from presidential candidates.”
During the first six months of the year, the nine Democratic presidential candidates collected nearly $9 million from California contributors. In the same period, President Bush raised $4.2 million from state donors.
No one suggests that even a bizarre recall could dry up the California money well, but the special election and its unlimited spending present a diversion that none of the 10 candidates, including the president, had anticipated.
“My first instinct is to stay as far away as possible,” said a senior strategist with a Democratic campaign who conceded that his candidate would have no choice but to visit the state at some point. “You can’t have a significant financial plan in a presidential race that doesn’t involve California.”
The Republican National Committee and the White House were never thrilled at the notion of recalling Gov. Gray Davis, a Democrat who has been under attack because of an enormous budget deficit, the fallout from an energy crisis and widespread unpopularity. In fact, some Republican strategists thought Bush would have a better chance of winning California’s 55 electoral votes in 2004 if Davis were still in office and could be used as a symbolic punching bag.
But as Schwarzenegger’s entry into the race begins to sink in, some GOP officials predict that Bush could benefit from the turmoil of the California recall. State Republicans were already trying to register more voters, as part of a nationwide effort to bring 3 million new voters into the party, so GOP organizers believe having a pop-culture idol on the ticket will be a better draw.
Outside the Los Angeles County registrar’s office on Saturday, after Schwarzenegger formally filed his candidacy papers, the GOP theory proved to have at least some merit. Between chants of “Terminator, Governator!” several fans said they would register Republican and vote for him simply because of his star power, not necessarily the political positions he would embrace.
The recall election, which prompted at least 125 people to formally enter the race, has become such a spectacle that Bush acknowledged he was riveted by the daily developments.
He declined to step far into the fray, but when asked about Schwarzenegger, Bush said, “I think he’d be a good governor.”
“It’s fascinating to see who’s in and who’s out,” Bush said Friday at his Texas ranch. “You know, I’m a follower of American politics. I find what’s going on in the state of California very interesting, and I’m confident the citizens of California will sort all this out for the good of the citizenry.”
In Southern California, though, much of the citizenry seemed restless, angry and embarrassed by the slapstick civics experiment the Davis recall has become.
At least Hustler magazine Publisher Larry Flynt paid his $3,500 filing fee. The 99 Cents Only store was offering to foot the bill for any 99-year-old Californian willing to declare his or her intention for the governor’s seat.
“It’s an election on steroids,” said Nelson Polsby, a professor of political science at the University of California, Berkeley. “Do you really call it democracy when 65 signatures and $3,500 can put yourself on the ballot?”
Despite the festival aspect of the recall, several presidential campaigns and strategists for both major national parties were monitoring the events from Washington. Just as the field of Democratic presidential contenders started attracting attention and gaining traction, several aides griped, Schwarzenegger entered the picture and upstaged them.
Even Dean, who just last week was featured on the cover of three major news magazines, was left behind.
A cable news channel correspondent sent the Dean campaign an apologetic note, saying he had been transferred to the California story until further notice.
`The Arnold factor’
“Things have been quiet over the last couple of days,” conceded Tricia Enright, a spokeswoman for the Dean campaign, known for its coast-to-coast, seven-days-a-week schedule. “It’s the Arnold factor, and it’s August. He is sucking up a lot of the oxygen.”
So as Schwarzenegger entered the stage, becoming the latest politician to grace the covers of the news magazines, Dean exited. He and his family departed for a three-day vacation, their first of the year.
And when he returns, aides said, he has no immediate plans to venture into California.
