The guy who coined “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush” must have seen this coming. You know the guy, some frilly knicker-wearing pansy who had time to sit around and pen platitudes. Sure, between his baths of lilac and hyssop, he must have foreseen the conundrum of Falcon Michael Vick and Eagle Donovan McNabb.
Before “the Great Break” broke a million fantasy fans’ hearts everywhere, living-room GMs were ready to canonize St. Vick before Down One, while McNabb sat on the sidelines saying, “Remember me?”
Now most drafters will be too gun-shy to risk a pick on Vick. The more cunning will draft him low, stash him and unleash him as an unstoppable weapon for a playoff run.
The Vick Strategy is tempting, sure, but you’ll rest easier from week to week with someone like McNabb.
DON’T BE TRICKED
The Vick Strategy looks inviting. You have to believe he’ll be more inclined to use that rifle arm than run when he returns. Vick worked with coaches in the offseason to fix his drop-back stance. He put up a perfect passer rating (158.3) in the first preseason game against Green Bay.
Throw in burner Peerless Price and Vick looks primed for late-season domination.
CONSIDER
When McNabb returned from his broken ankle in the playoffs, he scored only one touchdown and averaged just 245 passing yards in two games, so it’s unclear what, exactly, you can expect from Vick.
And Vick has thrown zero regular-season passes to Price, his primary target. Midseason is not the time to start jelling.
To make matters worse, Vick will miss most of the easier defenses (Dallas, Washington, Minnesota). He’ll return to a brutal schedule that includes a revamped St. Louis and the Giants on the road, and Philadelphia and Tennessee at home.
GRAB MCNABB
As painful as this is to say as a Redskins fan, McNabb is the king of quarterbacks. He now is the only quarterback worth a first-round pick. Here’s why:
McNabb shows no adverse signs from the injury that forced him to miss the last six regular-season games. In fact, he was a perfect 5-of-5 with a long touchdown in his first work of the preseason.
Like Vick, McNabb is a rushing threat, but he gets the nod over Vick in one major way: consistency. McNabb goes unnoticed at times, but he’s the only quarterback who’s a legitimate threat to put up 300 yards and three touchdowns (however you want them) every game.
CONSIDER
McNabb threw one more scoring pass and ran for only two fewer scores than Vick–in less than two-thirds of a season. Over a full schedule, McNabb would have passed for more than 3,600 yards and accounted for nearly 37 touchdowns in the air–and on the ground.
And McNabb’s number likely won’t change soon. Over the last three years, he has completed at least 57 percent of his passes, improving his passer rating every year. He also has a year under his belt with his top targets, James Thrash and Todd Pinkston (who doesn’t resemble a pipe cleaner as much in ’03; eat, eat!).
One caution: Vick is prone to long touchdowns, which weigh heavily in some leagues.
BOTTOM LINE
The Vick Strategy, even for a half-season, has plenty of potential, with high risk and high reward. But if you’re in the market for a top-tier quarterback, don’t get cute about it. McNabb is the “safe” pick. Safe is not sexy or mysterious. It doesn’t generate buzz. But it can win championships.
Running your options
JEFF GARCIA: Ever been told, “Watch your back?” Watch Garcia’s back before you make the pick.
DAUNTE CULPEPPER: Almost as much hype as Vick in fantasy circles, but do you really trust him with Randy Moss week to week?
AARON BROOKS: Could really pay off if New Orleans plays all 16 games.
KURT WARNER: Looks primed for a comeback.
PEYTON MANNING: Teases with promise of huge numbers but is rarely better than above average.
BRETT FAVRE: The Pack’s young receivers make him a solid choice.
DREW BLEDSOE: Now that he’s Price-less, look for a dip in his numbers as the Bills offense leans more on tailback Travis Henry.
TOP 25
Get these guys
1. Ricky Williams RB, Miami
2. LaDainian Tomlinson RB, San Diego
3. Clinton Portis RB, Denver
4. Priest Holmes RB, Kansas City
5. Donovan McNabb QB, Philadelphia
6. Marshall Faulk RB, St. Louis
7. Deuce McAllister RB, New Orleans
With McAllister’s running and receiving skills in a young, talented offense, there’s a strong argument for picking him even higher. But the threat of injury always may loom over him.
8. Shaun Alexander RB, Seattle
9. Michael Vick QB, Atlanta
10. Marvin Harrison WR, Indianapolis
11. Travis Henry RB, Buffalo
12. Terrell Owens WR, San Francisco
13. Edgerrin James RB, Indianapolis
14. Rich Gannon QB, Oakland
15. Daunte Culpepper QB, Minnesota
16. Randy Moss WR, Minnesota
17. Ahman Green RB, Green Bay
18. Fred Taylor RB, Jacksonville
19. Peyton Manning QB, Indianapolis
20. Joe Horn WR, New Orleans
21. Plaxico Burress WR, Pittsburgh
22. Stephen Davis RB, Carolina
23. Hines Ward WR, Pittsburgh
24. Donald Driver WR, Green Bay
25. Aaron Brooks QB, New Orleans
Sleeping beauties
The overlooked and undervalued
Amos Zereoue: He finally ran The Bus off the road when he was named the starter over RB Jerome Bettis. Goal-line carries are an issue, but this likely will be a breakout season for AZ.
Donte Stallworth: A gifted athlete in the Vick mold who physically overmatches foes. He caught eight TDs and averaged 14 yards a catch in 2002.
