Starting pitching – Cubs
Two starts by a beleaguered Carlos Zambrano is a disadvantage but does not outweigh the prospect of having the confident Mark Prior and Kerry Wood available for four starts, including possible Games 6 and 7. Zambrano still has his velocity but lacks sharpness on his breaking pitches, which means he could have trouble after two trips through the lineup. Wood, Prior, Zambrano and Matt Clement have combined for an 11-3 career record and 2.58 ERA against Florida, with Wood throwing two-hit and three-hit shutouts this year. Florida has a quality rotation, topped by 23-year-old right-hander Josh Beckett, who has a 2.26 ERA over his last nine starts, and lefties Mark Redman and Dontrelle Willis. Brad Penny gets the unenviable assignment of facing Prior.
Bullpen – Cubs
Having lost confidence in Braden Looper and Nate Bump, Florida manager Jack McKeon is getting relief innings from Carl Pavano and Rick Helling, who have started throughout their careers. Dontrelle Willis and Brad Penny also made appearances out of the bullpen between starts in the first-round series against San Francisco. Willis is likely to be used that way again, especially if Michael Tejera is again the only left-hander in the six-man bullpen. A bigger salary is the only edge Marlins closer Ugueth Urbina has over Joe Borowski, who has converted 15 consecutive save chances for the Cubs. The health of Kyle Farnsworth could leave Antonio Alfonseca or Dave Veres working in the seventh or eighth innings of close games, which is scary. Mike Remlinger’s cool head could prove important.
Hitting – Florida
Having handled a Murderer’s Row in the first round, the Cubs’ pitchers must adjust their mind-set to keeping batters off base, not just in the ballpark. The Cubs have outscored Florida since Sept. 1, averaging 5.1 runs per game to the Marlins’ 4.8, but Florida’s approach seems suited for October. Look for many deep counts, which could bring the Cubs’ bullpen into the picture earlier, as the Marlins have contact hitters up and down the lineup. Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo, the top two hitters, both have more walks than strikeouts. Derrek Lee and shortstop Alex Gonzalez are the only real strikeout men in the lineup. Ivan Rodriguez is the Marlins’ hottest hitter. Lee and Mike Lowell are the Marlins’ biggest home run threats. Rookie Miguel Cabrera gives Manager Jack McKeon a good option at third base as Lowell continues trying to hit his way into shape after missing most of September. The Cubs averaged 3.8 runs per game against Atlanta but scored 31 in the six-game season series against the Marlins. Sammy Sosa homered three times in those games. The Cubs need to get No. 2 hitter Mark Grudzielanek on track after a 3-for-20 series against Atlanta.
Bench – Cubs
It’s easy to think of the first base platoon of Eric Karros and Randall Simon as providing the one real weapon on the Cubs’ bench-they have better power than anyone on Florida’s bench-but Tom Goodwin has become a dangerous pinch hitter. He hit .345 off the bench during the regular season and delivered an insurance run when Dusty Baker lifted Kerry Wood after eight innings of Game 5 in Atlanta. Ramon Martinez is capable of solid fielding. Look for Todd Hollandsworth to get a lot of use off the Marlins’ bench. Ditto Lenny Harris, the all-time leader with 185 career pinch hits. He was 4-for-8 off the bench after joining the Marlins Aug. 22.
Fielding – Florida
You can’t ask for surer hands than the Cubs showed in the division series, playing five consecutive errorless games. But it was appropriate the Marlins eliminated San Francisco with a fielding play, left fielder
Jeff Conine making a strong throw to Ivan Rodriguez, who blocked the plate. Florida is one of the most solid fielding teams in the majors. No Marlin had more than 16 regular-season errors. Rodriguez is a defensive weapon. Not only does he practically eliminate the running game-look for Kenny Lofton to challenge him at least once-but he shortens the leads that runners take, which makes it tougher to advance two bases on singles. If they stray too far, he’ll pick them off. Cubs Alex Gonzalez and Eric Karros had terrific defensive series against Atlanta.
Managers Cubs
Jack McKeon, 72, had to wait a lifetime to manage in the playoffs, and he’s making the most of it. The Marlins were 16-29 when he took over for Jeff Torborg but went 75-52 under McKeon. He will do some unorthodox things, such as using his starters out of the bullpen. But Dusty Baker has mastered the art of getting his team in the perfect mind-set for close games. He did a good job getting all his players involved in the Atlanta series and deserves special credit for lifting Kerry Wood after eight innings in Game 5, which allowed Joe Borowski to get a confidence-building save.
Intangibles – Florida
The Cubs are riding an incredible high, but look out for the college football atmosphere of Pro Player Stadium, where Florida went 6-3 in the 1997 postseason and 53-28 this season. There’s little ambience at the Meadowlands South, but it is a tough place for the visiting team when there are 60,000-plus in the stands, as there will be this weekend. The Marlins will catch a break with moderate temperatures in Chicago for Games 1 and 2, but Wrigley Field could be damp and cold for possible Games 6 and 7. If the series goes that long, the pressure on the Cubs will be extreme while the Marlins play with nothing to lose.
Prediction: Cubs in 7
