Opening Day once was the time where anything seemed possible in baseball. Now the time for dreaming has become the first part of the off-season.
The market is flooded with free agents. Teams are willing to discuss trading elite players. Some teams even have money to spend.
You don’t have to be the New York Yankees to think big–although, sure, it helps. But a team with as deep pockets as the one on the North Side of Chicago certainly can have some fun kicking around scenarios.
Here’s a potential trade that would warm up the coldest day of the upcoming winter: How about Alex Rodriguez from Texas to the Cubs for Alex Gonzalez, Carlos Zambrano, Kyle Farnsworth and a couple of good arms in Double A or below (not including the untouchable Angel Guzman)?
Imagine the Cubs with a roster that is headed by Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Sammy Sosa and A-Rod? You think they might have a shot to finish off the march that finished one step short of the World Series last October?
No one is saying this is going to happen. But assuming the Rangers really have decided it’s time to get out from under the weight of the $179 million they still owe Rodriguez, there is not one reason why it could not work.
Put it this way: I mentioned it to a couple members of the Cubs’ front office Wednesday, and they didn’t laugh me out of the lobby of the Arizona Biltmore.
“This time of the year, you start out considering everything,” one of them said. “As the winter goes along, the focus of possibilities narrows. But right now, nothing’s out of the question.”
Gentleman Jim Hendry, the Cubs’ crackerjack general manager, has said he sees this winter as more a matter of “fine-tuning” than the overhaul that started last November and continued through August. But this is one competitive guy. He’s going to do everything he can to allow Dusty Baker to seize the day after jumping from 67 to 88 wins last year.
Could the Cubs do better than adding the modern version of Ernie Banks?
Believe it or not, Hendry has enough financial flexibility to add Rodriguez’s contract, at least in the short run.
The Cubs have $52.4 million committed to nine players under contract. That does not include the arbitration-eligible trio of Wood, Randall Simon and Farnsworth, who between them bring the total up to about $65 million for 12 players.
Add Rodriguez ($21 million), subtract Gonzalez ($4.5 million) and Farnsworth ($1 million estimated) and you have $80.5 million for 11 players. Zambrano made only $340,000 last year. Although he’d likely get a raise this season, his salary is negligible in the big picture.
Figuring a budget of $90 million, there’s still $9.5 million to fill out the roster. That’s not much to shop with, given the need for a second baseman, bullpen help and a fifth starter, but lots of players are going to be looking for jobs. The chance to tap into the Cubs’ positive vibes will prompt many veterans to think more about the chance than the paycheck.
Imagine a lineup that has Corey Patterson hitting first, Rodriguez second, Sosa third, Moises Alou fourth, Simon fifth and Aramis Ramirez sixth. Think it could do some damage?
The problem with Rodriguez’s contract–and the reason the Rangers are looking for somebody to take him–is as much as the length as the size. It jumps to $25 million a year in 2005-06 and $27 million a year in 2007-10.
No, this isn’t exactly Andy MacPhail’s kind of deal. But he shouldn’t dismiss it out of hand, not if Baker believes he could win it all with Rodriguez added to the current mix.
Rodriguez’s arrival would guarantee Sosa’s departure two years hence, just as it did for catcher Ivan Rodriguez in Texas. That would free $13.5 million in payroll room in 2006 (including Sosa’s $4.5 million buyout) and $17 million in future seasons–space that would be needed as Prior’s salary grows toward $10 million.
You’ve got to think the Tribune Co. is going to secure permission to expand the Wrigley Field bleachers at some point. That should bring at least $10 million a year in additional revenue, allowing the payroll to grow beyond $100 million.
Assuming the farm system produces enough entry-level talent, the Cubs could put together a long run in the NL Central with three players (Rodriguez, Prior and Wood) earning half of that payroll and the rest being divided by the 22 others.
Is this pie in the sky?
Maybe. The consensus among major-league executives is Rodriguez will go to Boston in a deal for Manny Ramirez, if he goes anywhere. But there are questions about Tom Hicks’ willingness to continue flushing so much money down a last-place drain. He’d be tempted to take a package of young pitchers for A-Rod–thus cutting his losses–rather than a $20-million-a-year headache like Ramirez.
The catching Rodriguez, who is once again a free agent, is a more likely target for the Cubs. If Hendry can find a taker for Damian Miller, it’s possible he will pursue Pudge. But the Rodriguez who plays shortstop, the one who hits 50 homers a year, is within the Cubs’ means.
Dream on.
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From A-Gon to A-Rod . . . on a budget
Add Alex Rodriguez ($21 million), subtract Alex Gonzalez ($4.5 million), Kyle Farnsworth ($1 million) and Carlos Zambrano and you’ve got $80.5 million for 11 players, with $9.5 million to fill the Cubs’ roster. Sammy Sosa and his big salary would be out in two years.
