Missing the playoffs in fantasy football brings several undesirable cliches to mind:
“Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you.”
“It’ll feel better when it stops hurting.”
“It’s like kissing your sister.”
Whether those sayings adequately portray owners’ anxiety depends on two things: 1) How badly do those owners want to reach the postseason, and 2) How hot is sis?
Kidding. Don’t sic Dr. Phil on me. Or should I say Jerry Springer?
Personally, losing a shot at the postseason seems a lot worse than any of those scenarios, as many die-hard fantasy fans will attest in the coming weeks. Most leagues start their playoffs in Week 14 or 15, so the margin for error has gone down to nil.
Axioms like “Always play your No. 1 pick” go out of the window when the season is on the line. That’s means possibly sitting Donovan McNabb or Edgerrin James to play Matt Hasselbeck or Moe Williams.
If it sounds like desperation, that’s because it is.
It’s time to start Googling your entire roster to scout every nagging injury and nuance that could affect your lineup. But some players, such as those listed below, stand out as saviors or saboteurs.
Down-the-stretch marks
Who will perform or punk out during the final run? The hottest defensive matchups are highlighted in black; the coldest, in gray.
PLUMS
Doug Flutie QB, Chargers
Next three games: At Denver, Cincinnati, Kansas City
Comment: Once again, the elfin Flutie is magically prodigious. Flutie roared back into the limelight Sunday with 248 yards and two passing and two rushing scores against the Vikings. Now you’re thinking, “Are you seriously endorsing Flutie?” Sure. He has flashed, then faded before, but consider that he’ll probably be a key pickup for many owners who’ve had QB woes but still cling to playoff hopes. He also makes David Boston and LaDainian Tomlinson more dangerous.
Steve McNair QB, Titans
Next three games: Jacksonville, At Atlanta, At N.Y. Jets
Comment: Steve McNair already is having the best season of his career, but he could be a juggernaut during the next three games. The Jets look the toughest, but their secondary usually isn’t tested because their run defense is weak.
Ahman Green RB, Packers
Next three games: At Tampa Bay, San Francisco, At Detroit
Comment: He’s the reason Green Bay leads the NFL in red-zone efficiency at 75 percent and 21 touchdowns. No fantasy player has been stronger more consistently this season.
Trent Green RB, Chiefs
Next three games: At Cincinnati, Oakland, At San Diego
Comment: Priest Holmes is a no-brainer, but Green is a big part of K.C.’s AFC-leading red-zone percentage of 73.1. Green is getting better at finding all of his receivers, which includes Holmes and Dante Hall.
Jeff Wilkins K, Rams
Next three games: At BEARS, at Arizona, Minnesota
Comment: OK, that Idiot Kicker Vanderjagt guy is really good, but who doesn’t know about him? Wilkins had four field goals in one quarter against Baltimore and has 21 overall, and the stretch run just becomes more favorable.
BUMS
Ricky Williams RB, Dolphins
Next three games: Baltimore, Washington, at Dallas
Comment: Apologies to the overly sensitive who believe that calling Williams a “bum” borders on sacrilege. Williams (697 yards, 5 TDs rushing) is not the problem. Neither Jay Fielder nor Brian Griese have done much to take pressure off Williams, but they don’t have many reliable targets outside of Chris Chambers. Preseason concerns about the offensive line proved to be well-founded–the unit’s a shadow of last year’s squad. Williams will run into brick walls the rest of the season.
Edgerrin James RB, Colts
Next three games: At N.Y. Jets, Buffalo, New England
Comment: James has had a perplexing season. He’s averaging 3.7 yards per carry and has just two scores. He couldn’t still be nursing injuries, could he?
Plaxico Burress WR, Steelers
Next three games: at San Francisco, at Cleveland, Cincinnati
Comment: Yards per game (14.8) are the lowest since his rookie year, and he has just one TD, because defenses have taken away the long ball. One. Trick. Pony.
Kevin Johnson WR, Jaguars
Next three games: Irrelevant
Comment: Can’t make much of an impact when you’re cut from the team you started the season with.
Vikings defense
Next three games: At Oakland, Detroit, At St. Louis
Comment: The Vikings were competing with the Chiefs for turn-around defense of the season. But that bubble has burst. In the last three games–all losses–Minnesota has allowed an average of 453 yards and 33.6 points, worse than any season from 1999 to 2002.
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BANK IT
Week 11 locks
1. Aaron Brooks, QB, Saints vs. Falcons
2. Marc Bulger
QB, Rams at Bears
3. Trent Green, QB, Chiefs at Bengals
4. Brad Johnson, QB, Bucs vs. Packers
5. Deuce McAllister RB, Saints
vs. Falcons
6. Rudi Johnson, RB, Bengals
vs. Chiefs
– K.C. allowing 122.8 rushing yards per game.
7. Marcel Shipp, RB, Cardinals at Browns
8. Darrell Jackson, WR, Seahawks vs. Lions
9. Tai Streets, WR, 49ers vs. Steelers
10. John Kasay K, Panthers vs. Redskins
BUSTED
Week 11 stiffs
1. Tommy Maddox, QB, Steelers at 49ers
2. David Carr, QB, Texans at Bills
3. Fred Taylor, RB, Jaguars at Titans
4. Troy Hambrick, RB, Cowboys at Patriots
– Tuna slowly, secretly giving job to Adrian Murrell.
5. Jerome Bettis, RB, Steelers at 49ers
6. Donald Driver WR, Packers at Bucs
7. Jerry Rice, WR, Raiders vs. Vikings
8. Desmond Clark, TE, Bears vs. Rams
9. Adam Viniatieri, K, Patriots vs. Cowboys
10. Jets defense vs. Colts
The hit list
Injuries that might hurt you.
Marvin Harrison WR, Colts
Doubtful with strained hamstring.
Randy Moss WR, Vikings
Day-to-day with concussion.
Jeremy Shockey TE, Giants
Out 6-8 weeks with sprained knee.
Rich Gannon QB, Raiders
Will miss the rest of the season to have shoulder surgery.
Kyle Boller QB, Ravens
Out 4-6 weeks after quadriceps surgery. Anthony Wright to start.
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plthompson@tribune.com.
