Finally something different is going on in the American League East.
Many times experts have predicted the demise of the New York Yankees. Many times experts have been wrong. But now it’s time to go at it a different way.
It says here the Yankees’ stranglehold on the East finally is slipping–not only because of George Steinbrenner’sshort-sighted,throw-tens-o f-millions-at-the-wall-and-hope-a-championship-sticks planning but also because the rest of the division is awakening from a long slumber.
Everybody knows Boston is deadly serious about overtaking the Yankees. You don’t trade for Curt Schilling if you’re planning to finish second for the seventh consecutive year. Nor do you give Keith Foulke the contract of the winter (three years and $24 million; not bad for Jerry Manuel’s set-up man) in hopes of another wild-card race.
But what had gone unnoticed until the last couple of weeks is that Toronto, Baltimore and even Tampa Bay are serious about changing the standings in a division that has had the same one-through-five finish every season since 1998.
Toronto’s pitching acquisitions (Miguel Batista, Justin Speier, Kerry Ligtenberg, Ted Lilly and Pat Hentgen) and depth of quality prospects (outfielder Alexis Rios has Vernon Wells talent) is not to be trifled with. Ditto Baltimore’s Miguel Tejada signing and pursuit of Vladimir Guerrero and Ivan Rodriguez/Javy Lopez.
Tampa Bay is home to fine young players Aubrey Huff, Rocco Baldelli and Toby Hall, as well as elite prospects such as shortstop B.J. Upton and outfielders Delmon Young and Jonny Gomes. Ownership is providing Lou Piniella with a fighting chance through the addition of veterans such as Jose Cruz Jr., Tino Martinez, Eduardo Perez and Rey Sanchez.
“Somebody just told me teams in this division have finished in the same order six years in a row,” agent Scott Boras said. “I believe that is going to change–maybe not this year, but in the next two or three years.”
In this case, Boras is not blowing hot air.
So score it like this.
Winner: The long-range viability of teams chasing the Yankees.
Loser: Yankee immortality.
There are sure to be more twists and turns on the road to spring training. Here’s a look at some off-season winners and losers as the end of the winter meetings signals the beginning of the end:
Winner: Missouri-based general managers.
St. Louis’ Walt Jocketty and Kansas City’s Allard Baird quietly have done wonders rebuilding teams that fell to the wayside because of a lack of pitching in 2003.
The Cardinals turned J.D. Drew and Eli Marrero into Reggie Sanders, three starting pitchers (Jeff Suppan, Jason Marquis and top prospect Adam Wainwright) and reliever Ray King. This will become a major coups if they have enough left over to wind up with Greg Maddux.
Kansas City manager Tony Pena calls the addition of reliever Scott Sullivan “huge,” and the re-signing of pitchers Brian Anderson, Kevin Appier, Curtis Leskanic and Jason Grimsley was equally large. Catcher Benito Santiago and infielder Tony Graffanino (who signed for $50,000 more than the White Sox offered him) are nice pickups. Baird continues to pursue Juan Gonzalez.
Loser: Smugness of Cubs fans.
Jim Hendry upgraded nicely with Derrek Lee at first base and LaTroy Hawkins in the bullpen. But the Houston Astros’ signing of Andy Pettitte and the rebuilding of St. Louis’ pitching staff means nothing is guaranteed in year two of the Dusty Baker regime. The Cubs resist jumping into the deep water to land an impact player like Ivan Rodriguez, which could come back to haunt them for the second year in a row.
Winner: Agents.
With the Orioles signing Tejada for $72 million over six years and new Anaheim owner Arte Morero committing $51 million over four years for Bartolo Colon, the marketplace has proven viable for players in demand. A changeup specialist (Foulke) got $8 million a year in a buying season that saw even teams like Detroit (Rondell White and Fernando Vina) and Montreal (Carl Everett) make significant acquisitions.
As a bonus, Gary Sheffield mangled his negotiations with Steinbrenner after deciding to represent himself.
Loser: The tired accusations about collusion.
Winner: Aging pitchers.
An off-season that began with 37-year-old Curt Schilling sharing Thanksgiving dinner with Boston GM Theo Epstein could end with 41-year-old Roger Clemens un-retiring on Valentine’s Day to join Pettitte in trying to win for the hometown Houston Astros. Kevin Brown, 38, cut down on his air miles by moving from Los Angeles to New York. Maddux, 37, was forced out of Atlanta but will be welcomed with open arms somewhere. St. Louis, San Diego and Los Angeles are favored, but a return to the Cubs could be arranged.
Loser: Aging hitters.
Fred McGriff turned 40 still in search of his 500th homer. He may have to get the nine he needs as a bench player at the minimum salary. Andres Galarraga, Raul Mondesi, Brian Jordan, Rickey Henderson, Ellis Burks and Roberto Alomar are also among the scores of free agents still searching for places to play.
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies manager Larry Bowa.
Not only did the Phillies land Billy Wagner to close games but also they added Tim Worrell (38-for-45 in saves last year in San Francisco) to be his set-up man. GM Ed Wade traded for Minnesota lefty Eric Milton believing that he would not be able to keep Kevin Millwood, yet it now appears Millwood could return to Philadelphia by accepting arbitration. As a bonus, Millwood is working hard on his conditioning after going 14-12 last season.
Loser: Atlanta Braves manager Bobby Cox.
Continuing payroll restrictions could mean Cox will have to be lucky to win his 13th straight division title. The Braves won’t be the highest scoring team in the league with J.D. Drew, Johnny Estrada and Mark DeRosa replacing Gary Sheffield, Javy Lopez and Vinny Castilla respectively. John Thomson could replace Maddux in the rotation but bet against Russ Ortiz and Mike Hampton duplicating their combined records of 35-15.
Winner: Magglio Ordonez.
While Vladimir Guerrero won’t get the $145 million over eight years that he seeks, it is clear he’ll get a good price from Baltimore, which has started negotiations at $65 million over five years. If they eventually split the difference, that’s about $96 million over six years. That is more than enough to keep Ordonez from believing he made a mistake asking the White Sox for $15 million a year on a contract extension.
Loser: Chanting White Sox fans.
Ordonez is almost certain to be traded, if not to Los Angeles this week than to the Yankees, Red Sox or Braves midway through the 2004 season. Chairman Jerry Reinsdorf’s ownership group does not have the resources of Tribune Co., which means it must count on the development of young players like Jeremy Reed, Joe Borchard and Kris Honel constantly to replace top-of-the-market talents like Ordonez and Colon.
Minnesota and Kansas City are better positioned for 2004 because they have done a better job developing (and especially keeping) players than have the Sox since Ken Williams replaced Ron Schueler as general manager. Williams traded six highly regarded prospects in 2003 and could get burned if left-hander Royce Ring (Mets for Alomar) and right-hander Ryan Rupe (Texas for Carl Everett) realize their potential as dominant pitchers.
