Generally, the presidential primary process is completely misunderstood by everyone in America except for a handful of newspaper reporters, the TV correspondents who imitate them (but are typically much prettier or more angular), political scientists at obscure universities and, of course, the gabbing pundits or partisans of your choice. You might think this represents the festival of democracy in full flower, but it doesn’t.
Next week, in Iowa, about enough people to fill a good-sized football stadium will gather in locations all over that grainy, corny, wonderfully Midwestern place to put their imprimatur on one, perhaps two (depending on how it turns out), of the Democratic contenders for the White House. A great explosion will ensue, and the media will find themselves cast far into the sky, speculating all the way, only to tumble to earth hundreds of miles away in New Hampshire, there to cover an actual election that will measure something. The Iowa caucuses will be over.
Howard Dean will either be propelled by this process or a tad hobbled, and Richard Gephardt may find himself in cartoons depicting a guy sinking in muck with a millstone labeled “expectations” around his neck. New Hampshire, the great squeezer, will rid the Democrats of the hopeless, save for those who are reality-proof anyhow and will insist on continuing in the campaign for egomaniacal reasons normal people will not be able to understand.
God bless Iowa, of course, a state full of good-hearted, good-headed people whose feet are planted in solid Midwestern values, gravy and farm subsidies. But those aren’t necessarily the ones who participate in the caucuses. Caucus people are activists, and like activists anywhere, they are representative only of themselves.
This is the first step in the process that will lead everyone to ask in November, “How the heck did that happen?” The answer will be simple. Once again we invited the liberals (or conservatives in years when Republicans must winnow presidential primary candidates) to come bouncing out to participate in tiny, non-representative contests all over the country and they provided the momentum that led to the money that led to the momentum to give this nomination to candidate X.
Let the process begin.
Before it is finished, the Democrats will have said just about everything bad about one another that can possibly be said. Those who came to have their egos massaged will find they have been shattered in the process, that they are, essentially, publicly unloved.
And what of the winner?
With an abundance of ammunition on hand provided by their opponents during the primary season, the Republicans will be waiting eagerly for him.
