Quarterback Tom Brady was sitting alone after Saturday’s AFC semifinal victory over Tennessee, the 13th straight win for New England after a pedestrian 2-2 start, and he admitted to marveling just a little bit.
“Man, we have come such a long way from that first week,” he said, shaking his head. “A long way.”
Brady and his teammates will go just a little further when they face Indianapolis in the AFC championship game Sunday. The Patriots, favored by 31/2 points, have never lost in three previous AFC championship games. Colts coach Tony Dungy lost in his only trip to the NFC finals with Tampa Bay, and Indianapolis fell an incomplete pass short in the 1997 title game.
Of more immediate concern, the Patriots defeated the Colts 38-34 Nov. 30 when linebacker Willie McGinest saw Colts quarterback Peyton Manning tap his hip, signaling a running play, and stopped tailback Edgerrin James a yard short of the end zone with 14 seconds left.
The Colts piled up 41 points against Denver and 38 against Kansas City. Their future will depend on whether they can approach that again. But they will have to do it in the cold of New England, not their dome.
Coming Wednesday: NFC championship matchup
Two to watch
TOM BRADY (QB)
New England’s persona may be built on the defense of Bill Belichick, but the Pats rise or fall with Brady, who is 4-0 in playoff games. The Patriots are 12-0 this season when he throws no interceptions, and he is on a roll of 163 passes without a pick over five games. The defensive-oriented Patriots scored 30 or more points in five games this season, meaning they can outscore anyone behind Brady, the undisputed leader of a solid, all-around team.
MARVIN HARRISON (WR)
Harrison is simply the primary reason why Peyton Manning is Peyton Manning. Over the last five years, Harrison has averaged 113 catches and 12 touchdowns per year. This was his only season of fewer than 100 receptions, and Harrison rectified that with 13 catches for 231 yards and two touchdowns in the Colts’ playoff wins. Harrison only occasionally works the middle of the field, but he commands attention from safeties, which helps free up the run game as well as other options for Manning.
Who has the edge?
QB
Two of the top three vote-getters in the MVP balloting, Brady and Manning define their teams. Brady is the perfect fit for the New England system and mind-set, but Manning can take over a game.
RB
New England’s Antowain Smith is not the consistent factor Edgerrin James is. The Pats averaged 100.4 rushing yards a game; James has topped that seven times, including the playoff win at Kansas City.
OL
Left tackle Tarik Glenn anchored the best pass protection in the AFC (19 sacks) and a largely anonymous group that includes former NIU star Ryan Diem at RT and C Jeff Saturday. Pats have Pro Bowl C Damien Woody.
WR
Marvin Harrison is a constant threat and Brandon Stokley has three TDs in the postseason. New England gets big plays out of Troy Brown, but nothing like the Colts’ duo.
DL
Dwight Freeney is a Pro Bowl edge rusher, but the NFL has no better inside force than Pats nose tackle Ted Washington. Pats DE Richard Seymour creates matchup problems.
LB
New England’s core of Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel and Willie McGinest is the heart of the 3-4 defense. McGinest is a sack threat who can play everywhere on the defense.
DB
Rodney Harrison made everyone in New England forget Lawyer Milloy. Ex-Bears CB Walt Harris is flourishing in Indy and caused a fumble in the Chiefs game. Pats have two one-on-one cover corners.
Special teams
Pats’ Adam Vinatieri has kicked winning FGs in Super Bowls, playoff games and conference championships. But Mike Vanderjagt is 40-for-40 this season, including playoffs. The Colts haven’t punted in two playoff games.
Coaching
Bill Belichick has won a Super Bowl and Tony Dungy has a losing record (4-5) in postseason. Matchup of the Colts’ no-huddle offense built around Manning’s command vs. Belichick’s defenses is a potential classic.
Regular-season team stats
OFFENSE Yards per game (NFL rank in parentheses)
PATRIOTS
Rushing: 100.4 (27th)
Passing: 214.5 (9th)
Total: 314.9 (17th)
COLTS
Rushing: 105.9 (19th)
Passing: 261.2 (1st)
Total: 367.1 (3rd)
DEFENSE Yards per game (NFL rank in parentheses)
PATRIOTS
Rushing: 89.6 (4th)
Passing: 202.0 (15th)
Total: 291.6 (7th)
COLTS
Rushing: 123.8 (20th)
Passing: 175.6 (5th)
Total: 299.3 (11th)
