Talk about domination: Americans bought 2.4 million full-size pickups last year, 96 percent of them built by the domestic Big Three.
But that domination is under attack.
Nissan sold its first Titan full-size pickup in December and plans to deliver 100,000 this year. Toyota plans to sell at least that many Tundra pickups in 2004 and more than 250,000 annually by 2007.
With industry forecasters predicting modest growth in large pickup sales, gains by the Japanese brands will come largely at the expense of the domestics.
But how much can the Japanese steal in the last major market segment ruled by the domestics and one of the most profitable for Detroit?
“It has to come from somewhere, and [the Big Three] are the only other players,” said Joe Barker of CSM Worldwide, a Detroit forecasting firm. “We will see some decline in market share for the domestic companies but nothing dramatic or earth-shattering.”
The domestic truckmakers don’t see a dramatic loss of market share, either, because they expect Japanese sales to come primarily from those who own Japanese cars and sport-utility vehicles. Pickup sales in 2003 totaled 3.1 million, including 742,000 compact pickups. That accounts for 9 percent of the 16.7 million new vehicles sold.
“Pressure from the Asians is always great, but I’m not convinced they’ll be as successful in their assault on full-size trucks. Unlike the cars of the ’80s, people are happy with their trucks,” General Motors Vice Chairman Bob Lutz said at the Detroit Auto Show. “You don’t have unsatisfied truck owners. It’s not a matter that the Japanese can tell people, `Come to us for your truck to have a good experience.'”
Lutz, however, never met James “Jef” Franklin.
Franklin had never owned a pickup but needed one for Bella Sign and Electric, a Roselle company he owns with his son-in-law.
Despite the lure of a big discount, Franklin was leery of the Chevrolet Silverado because of his experience with a 1999 Tahoe, the full-size sport-utility built from the same design.
“It didn’t accelerate very well. The brakes didn’t stop it very well, and it didn’t turn very well. Other than that, it was a great truck,” Franklin said of the Tahoe he dubbed the “Blunder Bus.” “I also had lots of little problems like with trim pieces that broke. I’d love to own a domestic, but the Tahoe just didn’t have good quality.”
After looking at the Ford F-150 and Toyota Tundra, Franklin bought a Titan King Cab in January, despite not having driven one because dealers didn’t have any in stock.
He was sold on the Titan’s 305-horsepower, 9,500-pound towing capacity, neat cargo-bed features such as lockable storage bins, utility tracks in the floor for securing cargo and an overhead rack for carrying ladders, a dealer-installed accessory that was a must for his sign-installation business.
“They’ve done a lot of creative things with this truck,” Franklin said, adding that neither the F-150 nor the Tundra match the Titan’s acceleration.
The Titan is Nissan’s first full-size truck, and it competes head-to-head with the domestics in size, muscle and features, a more direct assault than Toyota has taken.
Toyota introduced the Tundra in 2000 as the first Japanese pickup with a V-8 engine, but it didn’t match the domestics in size or brawn. Toyota closed the gap last year with the Tundra Double Cab, a larger version with four conventional doors and the size and payload of an F-150 or Silverado.
Toyota vows the next Tundra, due in 2006, will not suffer in comparison to the domestic trucks or the Titan. The FTX concept at this year’s show is a preview of the next Tundra.
“It’s a full-size heavy-hauler that’s the real thing,” Toyota executive Jim Press said at the FTX unveiling last month in Detroit. “Make no mistake. We are on a serious mission to build big-truck market share.”
Toyota builds 100,000 Tundras a year in Princeton, Ind., and will open a new plant in San Antonio in 2006 that can build 150,000 more. Toyota is already saying it will expand the Texas plant.
Nissan has not announced plans to increase pickup production at its Canton, Miss., plant, beyond the current 100,000, but industry observers say it is a matter of when, not if.
As Nissan and Toyota expand in the full-size market, it is inevitable the domestics will lose share, said Jeff Brodoski , an analyst with J.D. Power and Associates.
“When you own nearly 100 percent of a market, anyone should be able to come in and steal some share,” he said, but Brodoski predicts GM, Ford and Dodge will dominate for the foreseeable future.
“Even if [the Japanese] get a couple of hundred thousand apiece, they still will have only about 10 percent of the segment. As far as the Big Three falling below 75 percent, we don’t see that happening any time in the near future.”
Ford Motor Co. sees little effect on its business. Ford sold 845,586 F-Series pickups last year and forecasts more than 912,000 this year and 1 million in 2005.
“We have the distribution network, they don’t. We build a good, high-quality product that’s appealing,” said Executive Vice President Jim Padilla. “We anticipated more competition from the Japanese, which is why we put extra effort into our new ’04 pickups.
“I’m not discounting what the Japanese are doing, but we sold more than 800,000 pickups in ’03 at a time when the Japanese were bringing in their new trucks.”
Domestic manufacturers voiced similar bravado about their passenger cars, but now the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord are the two best-selling cars. Domestic brands sold two-thirds of passenger cars in 1993 but only 45 percent last year.
One inhibiting factor the Japanese face is what a Toyota dealer calls “the union mentality.” Tradesmen and union workers won’t switch to Japanese trucks because they are built in non-union assembly plants.
“There’s a lot of pro-union sentiment out there, and I’ve had people tell me, `I love your truck, but I’m not going to drive one to a [union] job site,'” said the dealer, who asked not to be identified.
Another Toyota dealer, Ronnie Colosimo , owner of Oak Lawn Toyota, said: “People buying the Tundra either haven’t owned a full-size truck before or are moving up from our smaller Tacoma and not over from a Chevy, Ford or Dodge.
“I don’t see competition against the Big Three domestic trucks now, though I’m sure when we get a bigger truck there will be more competition.”
In other segments, domestic manufacturers have been assaulted by a dozen or more rivals from Asia and Europe. In the full-size truck market, it is unlikely others will follow Nissan and Toyota.
“There are not many companies that are capable of building a full-frame, full-size pickup or are willing to make that investment,” Barker said.
Honda, for example, will introduce a light-duty pickup in 2005 built on car-based unibody architecture and using a V-6 engine.
– – –
2004 CHEVROLET SILVERADO 1500 4X4 CREW CAB
Engine: 4.3-liter OHV Vortec V-6
Horsepower: 200 at 4,600 r.p.m.
Torque: 260 foot-pounds at 2,800 r.p.m.
Fuel economy: 16 m.p.g. city/20 highway
Wheelbase: 143.5 inches
Length: 225.9 inches
Height: 75 inches
Width: 78.5 inches
Track (front/rear): 65/66 inches
Cargo box length: 68 inches
Cargo box volume: 49.6 cubic feet
Minimum ground clearance: 8.7 inches
Turning radius: 47.3 feet
Curb weight: 5,175 pounds
Payload capacity: 1,756 pounds
GVWR: 7,000 pounds
Maximum towing capacity: 8,500 pounds
Seating: 5/6
Head room (front/rear): 40.7/40.2 inches
Leg room (front/rear): 41.3/39.1 inches
Hip room (front/rear): 61.4/62.9 inches
Shoulder room (front/rear): 65.2/65.1 inches
Volume (front/rear): 63.4/59.2 cubic feet
Fuel capacity: 26 gallons
NISSAN TITAN CREW CAB 4×4
Engine: 5.6-liter V-8
Horsepower: 305 at 4,900 r.p.m.
Torque: 379 at 3,600 r.p.m.
Fuel economy: 14 m.p.g. city/18 highway
Wheelbase: 139.8 inches
Length: 224.2 inches
Height: 76.7 inches
Width: 78.8 inches
Track (front/rear): 67.5/67.5 inches
Cargo box length: 67.1 inches
Cargo box volume: 48.1 cubic feet
Minimum ground clearance: 11.5 inches
Turning radius: 45.3 feet
Curb weight: 5,341 pounds
Payload: 1,453 pounds
GVWR: 6,486 pounds
Maximum towing capacity: 9,400 pounds
Seating: 5
Head room (front/rear): 41.0/40.4 inches
Leg room (front/rear): 41.8 /40.4 inches
Hip room (front/rear): 61.3 /60.5 inches
Shoulder room (front/rear): 65.1/64.6 inches
Volume (front/rear): 64.6 /61.0 cubic feet
Fuel capacity: 28 gallons
2004 FORD F-150 4×4
Engine: 4.6-liter SOHC Triton V-6
Horsepower: 231 at 4,750 r.p.m.
Torque: 293 foot-pounds at 3,500 r.p.m.
Fuel economy: 15 m.p.g. city/19 highway
Wheelbase: 144.4 inches
Length: 229.8 inches
Height: 75.3 inches
Width: 78.9 inches
Track (front/rear): 67.0/67.0 inches
Cargo box length: 78.8 inches
Cargo box volume: 65.5 cubic feet
Minimum ground clearance: 83 inches
Turning radius: 46.4 feet
Curb weight: 5,421 pounds
Payload capacity: 1,500 pounds
GVWR: 6,950 pounds
Maximum towing capacity: 6,000 pounds
Seating: 5/6
Head room (front/rear): 40.9/39.6 inches
Leg room (front/rear): 41.3/32.7 inches
Hip room (front/rear): 66.3/65.5 inches
Shoulder room (front/rear): 66.8/66.7 inches
Volume (front/rear): 65.2/50.0 cubic feet
Fuel capacity: 27 gallons
TOYOTA TUNDRA DOUBLE CAB 4×4
Engine: 7.7-liter, 32-valve, DOHC V-8
Horsepower: 240 at 4,800 r.p.m.
Torque: 315 foot-pounds at 3,400 r.p.m.
Fuel economy: 14 m.p.g. city/16 highway
Length: 230.1 inches
Wheelbase: 140.6 inches
Height: 74.4 inches
Width: 76.6 inches
Track (front/rear): 65.9/67.3 inches
Cargo box length: 74.3 inches
Cargo box volume: Not available
Minimum ground clearance: 11.9 inches
Turning radius: 44.3 feet
Curb weight: 4,965 pounds
Payload capacity: 1,635 pounds
GVWR: 6,600 pounds
Maximum towing capacity: 4,700 pounds
Seating: 5
Head room (front/rear): 41.2/40.2 inches
Leg room (front/rear):41.6/37.5 inches
Hip room (front/rear): 59.7/58.3 inches
Shoulder room (front/rear): 62.1 /62.2 inches
Volume (front/rear): 61.6/54.3 cubic feet
Fuel capacity: 26.4 gallons
