Cocooning appears to be practiced mostly by moths these days.
The average American family is spending more time away from home, says Peter Francese, a demographic expert in Exeter, N.H., and founder of American Demographics magazine.
This may seem surprising, especially with the proliferation of gourmet kitchens and glitzy bathrooms. “It’s one of the strangest trends I’ve ever seen,” Francese says. “Considering the number of large, expensive homes being built or renovated, you’d think people would stay put.”
Yet Francese and other experts point to a number of factors that are dislodging folks from their domiciles.
– The rise of working women, a trend that began in the 1970s, is still going strong.
– More time on the job. In 2000, Americans worked an average of 1,978 hours, according to the United Nations’ International Labor Organization. That’s nearly a week more than the 1,942 hours averaged in 1990, and up from 1,883 hours in 1980. And despite all the talk of telecommuters, those numbers remain low.
– Increase in vacation homes. Sales of second homes jumped to 359,000 in 2001 from 264,000 units in 1991, according to the National Association of Realtors. This may seem to contradict the longer hours Americans are working, but there’s a new twist: Today’s getaways are closer to primary residences, making it easier for time-crunched owners to access their retreats.
– New entertainment options. Though technology has paved the way for more in-home entertainment, innovative developers continue to lure us out and about with new retail, restaurant and sporting venues.
– More singletons and DINKs. Today more people live alone (26 percent of households) or are married without children (28 percent) than in households of married couples with children (23.5 percent), according to U.S. Census statistics. Bottom line, more people can pick up and go when they choose.
– Busier children. Even stay-at-home moms aren’t staying put, but are chauffeuring offspring from soccer practice to dance lessons.
Chalk up the latter to competitive parenting. “It’s hard not to do. Otherwise, you feel that your child is at a disadvantage,” observes Cheryl Russell, editorial director of New Strategist Publications in Ithaca, N.Y., which publishes demographic reference books.
Though it’s tough to pinpoint precisely when the trend started, it affects a majority of households, Russell says, referring to a recent U.S. Department of Energy survey showing 50.2 percent of American households are empty on weekdays.
Even more intriguing, people may be spending less time at home, but they have significantly more elbowroom.
In 2002, the average size of a new house totaled 2,320 square feet, up from 1,660 square feet in 1973, according to the National Association of Home Builders. What’s more, as homes have been expanding, average household size has decreased.
Where we choose to live, however, has little to do with the number of hours clocked there. Instead, residential decisions are linked to a complex mixture of psychological, sociological and economic influences.
“The house is much more than a place to live; it’s the way you display who you are to the world,” says Frank McAndrew, a psychology professor at Knox College in Galesburg, Ill.
Especially in the United States, with no formal class system, people use real estate to signal their social status. Bigger, better homes are part of keeping up with the Joneses, a way of indicating how far we’ve come — and where we’re going.
Yet this ego gratification isn’t just for the benefit of others. It’s also how people reassure themselves, McAndrew explains.
“A big house can make you feel good about your life, even if you have to work long hours to pay the mortgage and spend little time in it,” he says. “Having the house is like a promise to yourself, that . . . someday you’ll be able to sit back and enjoy the fruits of your labor.”
Availability and a “primal urge to be prepared” also play a role, says Bernard Beck, a sociology professor at Northwestern University. “Why do we buy something? Because we can,” he says, noting that technological innovation has made larger homes with more amenities available to the average consumer.
Acting as a consumer isn’t the same thing as living with the features you’re buying, Beck says. “When people buy something, they’re programming for every opportunity. We don’t know what we might need. But we’d rather have it and not need it than need it and not have it,” he says.
Some experts worry that above-and-beyond buying has gotten out of hand.
“Whether it’s stoves or cars or houses, there’s a huge disconnect between use and what people buy,” says John McIlwain, senior fellow for housing at the Urban Land Institute, a real estate think tank in Washington, D.C. “Americans have gotten into a frenetic level of consumption — larger cars, larger houses, larger meals — it’s rampant throughout culture.”
Granted, there’s always been a group of consumers who were able to buy “more house” than they needed. Yet greater prosperity of the ’90s and historically low mortgage interest rates has caused that segment of the population to increase significantly in the last decade.
“People could buy more than they needed — and they did,” McIlwain says. “It’s moved from a small percentage of the population to a majority.”
Overbuying might have unpleasant economic consequences for some homeowners.
Demographers point out that the front wave of Baby Boomers are approaching their 60s. Aging Boomers with McMansions in affluent suburbs may soon start trading those trophy homes for a condo in the city and vacation property.
“If the supply-demand curve flips in the other direction — and it won’t take much for it to flip — these million-dollar homes will start languishing,” warns Francese of American Demographics magazine. He estimates that selling prices for such high-priced suburban castles could drop as much as 30 or 40 percent.
Any slide in price will come as a shock to homeowners, Francese observes. “People may be wary of the stock market,” he says, “but they perceive no risk in real estate and believe that their homes will continue to appreciate.”
Of course, severity of depreciation depends on many factors, such as the economic health of a particular area. Classic rules of real estate also apply, meaning that homes without good locations or unique characteristics will be more vulnerable to fallout.
And, not everyone wants to downsize as they get older, says Michael Carliner, economist at the National Association of Home Builders. “According to our surveys, the majority of home buyers still want more space.”
Empty-nesters may want less acreage to maintain, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they want smaller residences, agrees Nina Gruen, a sociologist and principal at Gruen Gruen + Associates, a real estate consulting firm in San Francisco.
As long as there are no major recessions, she expects demand for large homes to remain strong.
Future generations of homeowners will also want plenty of room to spread out. “Gen Y has grown up with their own bedrooms and bathrooms,” Gruen says. “Even when they go to college, many of these students demand and are getting private rooms.”
People’s expectations stem from experience, she adds: “Your baseline is what you had — and those expectations keep rising. People adjust to luxury very quickly. So not only will the younger generation want more space, they’ll feel entitled to it.”
