Despite an encouraging spread of free elections across Latin American and the Caribbean in the last two decades, recent events show democracy remains a fragile proposition there.
Since 1999, seven elected leaders in the region have been forced out of office before the end of their terms. Haiti’s President Jean-Bertrand Aristide was the most recent. Bolivian President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozado was forced out in October after six days of protests against his pro-American positions. Protests, some violent, have undone Paraguay’s Raul Cubas, Ecuador’s Jamil Mahuad, Peru’s Alberto Fujimori and Argentina’s Fernando De la Rua.
Who’s next? Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez is the front-running candidate, given the turmoil that has roiled Caracas for the last two years. An alliance of political, labor and business groups has been trying to oust the increasingly despotic leader. Chavez and his cronies have defied a massive recall petition drive and waged a government crackdown against protests.
Instability in Venezuela poses an ominous economic threat to the U.S. because Venezuela is this country’s leading supplier of oil. The Venezuelan crisis also poses the latest manifestation of a continuing quandary: How does one handle democratically elected leaders who turn undemocratic?
In this case, the answer may be fairly easy. Venezuela has a constitutional means to decide the fate of its president. Chavez has thwarted the overwhelmingly broad public effort to use that constitutional means to remove him. Leaders throughout the region need to bring all the pressure they can on Chavez to allow his citizens to vote on his fate.
The question may come down to this: Will Chavez be removed through constitutional means or unconstitutional means?
Chavez has so far thwarted the recall efforts. But polls show as many as 70 percent of the population want him to go. Chavez’s government could hardly conceal its embarrassment over the March 4 resignation of Milos Alcalay, Venezuela’s envoy to the United Nations. The ambassador resigned to protest Chavez’s crackdown and his government’s rejection of more than one million signatures on petitions seeking his recall.
Meanwhile, constant strikes, marches and clashes between Chavez’s foes and supporters have greased the country’s slide into economic collapse.
Venezuela’s problems are too big for its neighbors to ignore. The U.S. can ill-afford a continuing crisis with a major supplier of this nation’s oil. The hemisphere cannot hardly afford more instability in another democracy.
The U.S., the Organization of American States and prominent Venezuelan neighbors like Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva need to press Chavez to hold a referendum on his recall, as allowed by his constitution and demanded by his citizenry.
