Anybody can pick division races and MVP winners, right? That is, unless you’re talking about picking them correctly. Should you care to see my latest futile attempt at forecasting the essentials, along with those of my Tribune colleagues, please check out our 2004 baseball section on Monday, just in time for the Tampa Bay-Yankees opener in Tokyo. As a warmup exercise, here are a few other predictions:
Comeback player of the year . . .
. . . 2004: Shawn Estes, Rockies
Believe it or not, the lefty who had a 6.15 ERA with the Cubs a year ago looks like this year’s Esteban Loaiza. The lack of a guaranteed contract apparently got his attention and he’s been benefiting from the work he put in with Larry Rothschild a year ago. He’s been one of the best pitchers in Arizona and is scheduled to start on Opening Day for Colorado.
. . . 2005: Rusty Greer, Rangers
You could fill a medical encyclopedia with the ailments that have befallen Greer since he was given a three-year, $21.8
million contract in the spring of 2002. He’s played only 51 games the last two years and will spend most of this year rehabbing from another elbow surgery. His goal is to get healthy and DH for someone at the minimum salary in ’05, hopefully Texas.
First manager fired
NL: Jim Tracy, Dodgers
Tracy’s a good manager, but he’s set up to fail with a new owner and general manager, not to mention no major improvements to the lineup that averaged 3.5 runs per game a year ago. The only way he’ll survive is if he somehow gets the Dodgers into the thick of the race in a wide-open West.
AL: Buck Showalter, Rangers
The uptight Showalter is the wrong guy for a team in need of someone with a sense of humor. If it came down to a case of someone had to go, him or Alex Rodriguez, the Rangers dispatched the wrong guy. It won’t be much longer until owner Tom Hicks figures this out.
The drive for 120
Brewers and Rangers
While the Tigers avoided their date with destiny a year ago, winning five of their last six to avoid tying the 1962 Mets for
the most losses in history, there are two candidates this year. Milwaukee seemed to make some progress under Ned Yost a year ago but won’t have Richie Sexson this time around. The Brewers recently failed to score for 37 consecutive innings in the Cactus League–that’s hard to imagine. Texas faces 58 games against powerful AL West rivals Anaheim, Oakland and Seattle, including its first 19 games. A 3-16 start isn’t out of the question.
Most likely to be . . .
. . . the new Royals: Orioles
Baltimore is one of five teams that enter 2004 with a losing streak of at least six seasons. There would have been six, but Kansas City won 83 games a year ago. With Miguel Tejada, Rafael Palmeiro and Javy Lopez joining the lineup, the Orioles have a chance to improve 10 games, which would get them to .500.
. . . Mr. June: Jered Weaver
The Long Beach State right-hander has positioned himself to be the first pick in the 2004 draft. Weaver was 7-0 with a 0.71 ERA through his first seven starts, twice striking out 10 hitters in a row. One scouting director says he could be an immediate starter for San Diego, which has the first pick.
