Parity is a virus. Now it’s spreading from the men’s game to the women’s game. Parity has jumped brackets. Call in Hazmat.
Women’s basketball used to be a haven for know-it-alls, predictors and prognosticators, for anyone who wanted to feel smart, or who was in search of short odds in an office pool, or who simply needed steadying reassurance in a world full of change. Life was simple: All you had to do was predict Tennessee and UConn would be in the Final Four, and you could say the four most pleasurable words in the English language: “See, I was right.” Six of the last eight titles were won by either the Lady Vols or the Huskies.
That was then. In a single round of NCAA tournament play, everything has changed. The women’s game is suddenly as capricious and upset-ridden as the men’s game. You need an advanced degree in statistical forecasting and data-mining coupled with extrasensory perception to pick a winner this year, and even then, you might look stupid.
There were four forehead-smacking upsets in the first round. I asked my friend Pat Summitt, whose top-seeded Tennessee team faced an ulcerous second-round match-up last week against No. 9 seed DePaul–a team that forced the Lady Vols to overtime in the regular season–what was going on.
“I predicted there would be upsets in the first round, and it’s happening,” she said. “The upsets will continue in every single round. There are going to be more of them. That’s the game now. And it’s going to be the game from now on.”
In other words, the days of utter dominance are over for the traditional powers. It used to be that the women’s tournament wasn’t worth watching until the regional semifinals; only once every few years or so would you see an upset before the Sweet 16. But this year the brackets are already in disorder and chaos. Bracketology, schmacketology.
Now every high seed is biting its knuckles because they know they could be vulnerable to early upset, and that includes defending national champion UConn (25-4). Asked by ESPN what was likely to happen to his team in this tournament, UConn coach Geno Auriemma said, “Anything. We could lose in the second round, or we could win a national championship.”
Here’s how rare upsets have been in the 23-year history of the women’s NCAA tournament: Only two 13th seeds had ever won a game and gone on to the second round. But on March 21, Middle Tennessee State became a third, stunning North Carolina, 67-62.
What’s happening? There has been a major acceleration in the women’s game over a very short period of time, that’s what. In no other sport, at no other time, has a group of athletes broadened its abilities so quickly. Women are doing things that were unthinkable even four years ago, led by that UConn space alien Diana Taurasi with her gasp-evoking three-pointers. This lends the game both primary and secondary excitement; not only are there early upsets and last-second heroics, but we can see a sport physically elevating before our eyes.
The women’s NCAA tournament is a comparatively young event, but a graph of its progress would show a line straight upward. The men’s event began in 1939 with just eight teams, and by 1962 it was still a quaint tourney with a draw of 26. Over a similar time period the women’s event has evolved into a mainstream sports event with a legitimately deep field of 64 and TV ratings that rival those of any sport. Why? There are a lot of phenomena at work, not the least of which is ESPN and its ravenous need for programming, and throw in a healthy cultural shift among women from the decorative to the active. Once, attendance and ticket prices at the women’s tournament reflected a please-just-come attitude. Attendance at the Final Four has grown from the 7,000 range in 1982 to 28,000 last year. The NCAA is phasing out home-court advantages in favor of neutral sites for tournament games.
Talent is spreading, like dye in hot water. It’s no longer enough for a program to have one good player–now you better have five, because every school has mobile, athletic bigs, and guards who can stroke it. Taurasi and Duke’s Alana Beard cornered the player of the year awards and the media, but ask any WNBA scout who else they’re watching, and they will give you the name of Chandi Jones of Houston, an offensive virtuoso who deserved more national attention but was buried in Conference USA.
Before Taurasi, there were just a handful of players that you would call real greats, from Cheryl Miller to Chamique Holdsclaw. After Taurasi there will be stacks of them: The current class of high school seniors is widely acknowledged to be the best and deepest class of female ballplayers ever, with no fewer than 15 kids who can alter the fortunes of a program. Naperville Central’s Candace Parker, who is Tennessee bound, can dunk and shoot the three with either hand. Charde Houston, a dazzling UConn signee, just scored 43 points in the California state tournament. But they are just the headliners. Maryland fared as well as any school, scooping up two preps rated among the top 10 in the country.
Evidence of the diffusion of talent is the way the “power” conferences have struggled with lowly opponents. For instance, the selection committee has some explaining to do when it comes to the Big East: Eight teams made it into the tournament, the most of any league, but three of them–Miami, Rutgers and West Virginia–were first-round losers. Meantime, Conference USA had five entries–and four of them were still alive after the first round. And that’s not even counting the near upsets or surprisingly tough fights put up by some of the lowest seeds around the country, like No.15 Valparaiso giving No. 2 Kansas St. fits, No. 14 Marist making life miserable for No. 3 Oklahoma, or No. 15 St. Francis (Pa.) grating the collective nerves of No. 2 Purdue. All lost, but they were close games and made great television.
None of this is to say that Tennessee and UConn won’t wind up in the Final Four in New Orleans next week. So might other top seeds, Duke, Texas and Penn State. The perennials will remain favorites for a good reason–they still have the most resources and talents–but something has clearly changed. They won’t get there without some cymbal-hearted moments.
