The Kentucky Derby lost two of its superstars–trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Jerry Bailey–when Wimbledon was withdrawn from Saturday’s 130th running after an injury to his left front tendon was discovered Friday morning.
“There is a little spot on the outside, about the size of a dime” said Baffert, who won the Derby in 1997 with Silver Charm, in 1998 with Real Quiet and in 2002 with War Emblem. “I had a veterinarian look at it. There is something going on there. It’s probably not that bad right now–he isn’t lame or anything–but we don’t feel comfortable about running him. If we were to go out and run him, then you can really hurt him.
“These horses are so fragile. I don’t know how he did it. He didn’t give us any signs. This horse had been looking great in the mornings here. I really felt he was going to run a good race, especially with the wet weather. He loves a wet track.”
The withdrawal of the Louisiana Derby winner leaves Baffert without a Derby starter for the first time since 1996 and Bailey without a Derby mount for the first time since 1991.
Bailey has been voted North America’s leading rider for the last four years and has won six Triple Crown races, including the 1993 Derby on Sea Hero and the 1996 Derby on Grindstone.
Bailey’s services were in great demand when Eddington, the horse he was committed to ride, didn’t earn enough money in graded stakes races to be among the 20 Derby contestants. He chose Wimbledon, a horse he never had ridden, over Quintons Gold Rush, the colt who had given him a winning ride in the April 17 Lexington Stakes.
Two hours after Wimbledon dropped out, San Rafael winner St Averil was scratched because of sore feet, leaving a starting field of 18.
Ted Hill, acting chief steward for the Kentucky Horse Racing Authority, said the absence of Wimbledon and St Averil will have an effect on the post positions in the race–the two inside stalls will be left open.
The Churchill Downs morning line had both dropouts projected as long shots–Wimbledon at 15-1, despite his high-profile connections, and St Averil at 30-1.
Tapit and Smarty Jones were the 5-1 co-favorites in the early betting at the conclusion of Friday’s program at Churchill Downs.
The Cliff’s Edge, projected as the 4-1 favorite on the morning line, was the third choice in the early betting at 8-1.
After a rainy Friday, the forecast for Saturday called for more rain. If the track is sloppy, it would seem to enhance the chances of undefeated Smarty Jones, a proven commodity on an off-track. When Smarty Jones made the Arkansas Derby his sixth straight victory, the track was muddy and he had the outside post position in an 11-horse field.
Lion Heart figures to be the pacesetter, and the consensus is that Smarty Jones will be stalking him.
“Ideally, I’d like to see him sitting outside of horses, maybe five lengths off the lead,” John Servis, Smarty Jones’ trainer, said.
But under that scenario, if none of the other contestants dueled Lion Heart for the early lead, catching him in the stretch would be mission improbable.
When The Cliff’s Edge made a superb stretch run to overtake Lion Heart in the Blue Grass to win by a half-length, the early pressure applied by Limehouse opened Lion Heart’s window of vulnerability.
The April 10 Blue Grass in Lexington, Ky., was one of four far-flung Grade I preps for the Kentucky Derby, and all four winners are scheduled to run for the roses Saturday. Tapit won the April 10 Wood Memorial in New York; Castledale won the April 3 Santa Anita Derby in California; and Friends Lake won the March 13 Florida Derby in which The Cliff’s Edge was third and Tapit was sixth.
The Florida Derby was Friends Lake’s last race, and finding a Kentucky Derby winner without an April prep entails going all the way back to Needles in 1956.
“It’s amazing to me how many people have gotten off this horse’s bandwagon just based on the feeling he will have a hard time after a seven-week layoff,” Friends Lake’s trainer John Kimmel said. “Not many people have tried it here, so the statistics are biased. Europeans do it all the time
“For my horse (a son of 1989 Belmont and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner A.P. Indy) it’s not going to be a problem. Payson Park, where we trained in Florida, is a deep track; horses get extremely fit training over it. There’s a big difference between 1 1/8 miles (the distance of the four Grade I preps) and 1 1/4 miles (the Kentucky Derby distance). My horse will be well-suited to getting that extra eighth mile. I think he’s sitting on a huge race.”
– Ashado came on strong in the stretch to win the Derby’s sister race, Friday’s Kentucky Oaks for 3-year-old fillies. Island Sea finished second, and Madcap Escapade was third after setting a torrid pace into the stretch. Bailey rode Madcap Escapade, who came into the Oaks 4-0. Ashado’s trainer, Todd Pletcher, will be represented by Illinois Derby winner Pollard’s Vision and Tampa Bay Derby winner Limehouse in the Derby. If one of them wins he will be the first trainer to pull off the Derby-Oaks double since Ben Jones did it in 1952 with Real Delight and Hill Gail.
Neil Milbert’s Kentucky Derby picks
Post positions, horses, jockeys, trainers and Churchill Downs advance wagering odds for the race’s 130th running.
Note: Because Wimbledon and St Averil were scratched; post positions 1 and 2 will be empty and the following horses moved out one spot: Limehouse, Song of the Sword, Lion Heart, Action This Day, Friends Lake, Minister Eric and Master David. Horses in posts 10 through 20 were unaffected.
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PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
11 The Cliff’s Edge Shane Sellers Nick Zito 8-1
18 Tapit Ramon Dominguez Michael Dickinson 5-1
15 Smarty Jones Stewart Elliott John Servis 5-1
16 Castledale Jose Valdivia Jr. Jeff Mullins 27-1
9 Master David Alex Solis Bobby Frankel 8-1
7 Friends Lake Richard Migliore John Kimmel 17-1
13 Birdstone Edgar Prado Nick Zito 15-1
3 Limehouse Jose Santos Todd Pletcher 38-1
10 Imperialism Kent Desormeaux Kristin Mulhall 9-1
12 Borrego Victor Espinoza C. Beau Greely 9-1
6 Action This Day David Flores Richard Mandella 42-1
5 Lion Heart Mike Smith Patrick Biancone 9-1
17 Pollard’s Vision John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 33-1
14 Read The Footnotes Robby Albarado Rick Violette 20-1
8 Minister Eric Pat Day Richard Manella 12-1
20 Quintons Gold Rush Corey Nakatani Steve Asmussen 58-1
4 Song of the Sword Norberto Arroyo Jr. Jennifer Pedersen 57-1
19 Pro Prado John McKee Bob Holthus 65-1
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