Na-na-na-na, hey-hey-hey, goodbye?
“If we don’t finish first, I don’t care about second place,” manager Ozzie Guillen says about the race with Cleveland for second place in the American League Central. “I only care about first.”
Well, Ozzie, simple mathematics suggest your team will not finish first. And they say it won’t win the wild card, even though it started the Kansas City series only 5 1/2 games behind Anaheim.
Is reaching the playoffs completely impossible? Is there absolutely, positively no chance?
Well, never say never. Atlanta went from 6 1/2 games behind Philadelphia on June 23 to 4 1/2 games ahead on July 31. But the Braves were an experienced playoff team, and one that wasn’t hampered by the injury loss of its two biggest run producers as the Sox are without Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez.
The White Sox are more like the Phillies than they are the Braves. And the Braves are more like the Twins, skillfully savvy in stretch runs.
Division losses hurt
At the start of this series against K.C., the White Sox were considered in the wild-card mix. And, usually, this would be true, what with Anaheim, Boston and Texas as the top three teams. Because the East and West divisions are so evenly matched, the hope would be that those teams would beat up on one another while the White Sox would clean up on the Central Division.
Not a bad theory, except the White Sox just squandered their best chance at their biggest advantage, which is winning within what is considered an inferior division.
Forget the three straight losses at Minnesota, which took them from a half game behind on July 25 to 3 1/2 behind. It was what followed that absolutely wiped out their chances at both the Central and the wild card: losing three of four against Detroit, two of three against Kansas City and three of four against Cleveland.
“Even when I was with the Tigers and they lost 104 games, I don’t think I’ve ever gone through a week of losing [like that],” Sox General Manager Ken Williams said.
Actually, the Tigers lost only 103 games in 1989, but you get the idea.
Doing the math
Numbers normally have a way of telling a story, so let’s look at the miraculous mathematics–at the start of the series against the Royals–that would enable the Sox to make the playoffs.
To win the division, let’s say that the Twins fall on hard times and finish their final 51 games with a 25-26 record. The White Sox would have to finish 32-21 in their final 53 games (which includes six games against Minnesota) just to tie–and they have never been 11 games over .500 this season, even with Thomas and/or Ordonez.
To win the wild card, the same numbers are true. If Anaheim played at a .500 pace, the Sox would still need that 32-21 record in their final 53 games (which include three each against Boston, Oakland and Anaheim and four against Texas) for a tie. And that would assume that Boston, Texas, and Cleveland also meander into mediocrity.
In essence, it would be mathematically easier for the Sox to win the division than the wild card. In truth, neither is going to happen.
Wait `til next year
In reality, this is not news to Guillen or Williams, who realize they are stuck with what they have and what they have is not enough. They already are mapping out plans to finish converting this team from an American League to a National League lineup.
Guillen keeps talking about how “solid our pitching staff is” and that’s what next year’s team will be built around–the starting arms of Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Jose Contreras and Jon Garland.
That is the National League way. On a tight budget, it will be easier to assemble a “little ball” lineup than it will one consisting of big thumpers from top to bottom.
But that’s next season. What’s left of this season is trying to finish second. And, yes, that is important.
Wild-card comparison
The White Sox have not cleaned up in what is considered an inferior division. How the wild-card teams were faring against each division before Tuesday’s games:
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TEAM vs. EAST vs. CENT vs. WEST
Anaheim 18-10 15-12 21-17
Boston 28-18 11-11 12-11
Texas 15-12 15-11 20-18
Cleveland 12-11 21-25 14-11
White Sox 14-12 23-19 11-12
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