On Sunday Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chavez, survived a recall referendum by a unexpected landslide: He got nearly 60 percent of the vote. That should put aside questions about the legitimacy of his presidency. Indeed, he has won three popular votes since 1998.
The more urgent question is what sort of mutually productive relationship can be worked out between the United States and Venezuela and, internally, between Chavez and the groups that have been trying to overthrow him–legally and otherwise–for more than three years.
Sunday’s vote on whether to oust Chavez and hold new elections attracted record voter registration and turnout. On Monday, electoral observers from the Carter Center and the Organization of American States certified Chavez had won fair and square. One of the leading opposition candidates accepted Chavez’s stunning victory although others continued to charge fraud.
Chavez’s gross mismanagement of the economy led to a national strike last year that practically paralyzed the country. Yet it’s not hard to understand why he prevailed Sunday.
His Castro-length speeches may run between the inane and the incendiary, but Chavez has a tremendous charisma, particularly among the estimated 70 percent of the population living in poverty. The opposition consisted of a free-for-all of 27 parties and other organizations that could only agree on their common loathing of Chavez and failed to rally around any rival candidate.
Luck also played a part. Oil prices shot up before the referendum, and Chavez invested the windfall on education and health programs for his impoverished political base. Fears of a further, Venezuela-driven spike in oil prices subsided Monday when investors realized, ironically, that Chavez’s victory meant stability in production rather than the certain social upheaval an opposition victory would have triggered.
Relations with the U.S. have been tense because of Chavez’s confrontational speeches and erratic economic policies, plus his habit of embracing American enemies (see Castro, Fidel).
Despite all the tensions, though, Venezuela remains a leading supplier of oil to the U.S. Pressure over oil can work both ways. Venezuela’s tottering economy could hardly afford any more shocks or American sanctions. Indeed, Chavez’s present revenue bonanza is bound to dry up when oil prices inevitably level off.
Both countries need each other, and the U.S. needs to recognize that the thorn in its side named Chavez is not about to vanish. Any U.S. attempt to overthrow him would be disastrous for Venezuelan and Latin American democracy. Likewise, Chavez can rant all he wants about yanqui imperialism, but he desperately needs those yanqui dollars to keep his regime afloat.
A campaign by the U.S. and Venezuela to tone down the rhetoric and work out a productive modus operandi is essential and would benefit both.
Likewise, the opposition needs to recognize Chavez’s legitimacy and practice working with him. Any reprise of the violent protests during the last two years would be self-defeating for the opposition and for Venezuela. The opposition instead ought to devote its energies toward finding a credible candidate to field in the 2006 election.
Chavez’s decisive victory on Sunday doesn’t make him omnipotent. He still has his determined opponents at home and a huge and nervous oil customer to the north.
