Not so long ago, the ritual during a presidential-election year was relatively simple for political organizers across the nation: Hand out fliers on millions of front doorsteps and remind people to vote.
But that was before the nation became so politically polarized that an estimated 8 percent to 10 percent of swing voters will probably determine the outcome of Election 2004.
Who are these swing voters? How many of them are there? And what will move them to one camp or the other? Those are strategic issues that campaign operatives will be grappling with over the next 10 weeks in their quest for victory.
According to experts, the undecideds are as a group not strongly aligned with either political party and are mainly middle-of-the-road on issues.
“They tend to have more moderate views,” said Michael Dawidziak, a GOP campaign consultant. “They consider themselves pro-choice, but against partial-birth abortion.”
The group also tends to be slightly more female and is better educated. Most will not make their decision until the week before the election. And one more thing, experts say, most probably don’t watch conventions.
The ever-narrowing competition to reach these voters has required a new ground game, new players–and energetic legions of workers. Some, like Laura Lopez, a
20-year-old student in San Francisco, are directing their efforts at one segment of undecideds: unmarried women, most of them younger than 25, who may have never cast a ballot before. Lopez’s message: Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry and Republican President Bush have major differences in the arena of reproductive rights.
“With a lot of young people these days, there’s a short attention span,” said Lopez, a registered Green Party member who is working for the Planned Parenthood Action Fund, the political arm of the reproductive-rights organization. But as a peer who can speak their language, “I talk to them about where they would go without Planned Parenthood services … and what would happen if the funding was cut. It gets their attention.”
Efforts by the Planned Parenthood Action Fund and Lopez dramatize the increasing numbers of advocacy groups–as well as the major parties–that are focusing on the margins and trying to find new voters through a savvy combination of technology and demographic targeting.
“When you have a starkly divided electorate and a narrow band of people who are undecided, every targeted [get out the vote] campaign becomes important,” says Phil Trounstine, who heads the San Jose State University Survey and Policy Research Institute.
“That’s true for pro-choice groups like Planned Parenthood or NARAL [the National Abortion Rights Action League], and it’s just as true for evangelical Christians and gun owners.” —
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In betweeners
With campaign experts predicting that the 2004 presidential race could be decided by the 8 percent to 10 percent of voters who are still on the fence, RedEye asked potential voters, “What will swing your vote this November?”
“The nation needs more jobs. Bush has been in office for four years, and it seems like he’s done nothing. I’ll probably vote for Kerry.”
–Sylvester Smith, 26
computer technician, North Side
“Gay marriage is a big issue for me. I’m going to vote for Kerry.”
–Erwin Paderanga, 19
student, South Side
“I’m not that into politics. I’m not following the election, and there’s pretty much nothing that would get me to vote in November.”
–Dayna Blomquist, 22
student, Minneapolis
“I’ll support someone who wants more government funding for stem cells.”
–Colleen Kanaan, 25
media planner, Lakeview
“National security. We have so many troops over in Iraq but we’re not taking care of business. I want someone who will make some leeway over there.”
–Joel Sandridge, 25
architect, Lincoln Park
“The deal breaker for me is Kerry’s stance on the war. He hasn’t really given any detailed thoughts on it yet. Depending on his thoughts, that would determine my vote.”
–Moises Benpensamiento, 25
information technologist, North Side
“I’m already set in my vote for Kerry. I support him on everything: the war, the economy, health care. Just name it.”
–Raquel Aceves, 29
consultant, San Francisco
“I just really don’t want Bush. What will [we] do if he’s in office another four years? I might actually cry. The war and his health-care policies are just ridiculous. I hate the way they are faith-based.”
–Renee Cho, 29
student, River North
“I’ll look at the candidates’ stance on immigration. Do they support a long-term solution? Will it have a wider range than the one Bush has proposed already?”
–Silvia Salgado, 28
journalist, North Side
“The war. I’m scared for my brothers right now. We went in with no international support. We were a powerhouse, and now we’re a joke because our president is a cowboy. Kerry had better win, or I’m moving to Canada.”
–Shancia Coleman, 21
sales, South Side
“Employment. I’m looking for a job, so whoever shows the best plan for the economy in the next few months will make me decide.”
–Shereen Silver, 33
Flossmoore
“I’m pretty firm in the Kerry camp. I don’t like George Bush’s foreign policy at all.”
Elizabeth Green, 23
project assistant, Lakeview
“There is not an issue George Bush could influence me with. I don’t like the way he uses religion to make policy, like how he’s pro-life and against stem cells.”
–Valerie Alenzo, 23
project assistant, Lincoln Park
“I’m pretty much gonna vote for Bush. Kerry wants to get rid of the tax cut. I’m sure he’s a good candidate, but that just doesn’t make sense.”
–David Fortner, 27
teacher, Mt. Blanchard, Ohio
“I’ve voted for Nader the last few elections. I hate Democrats but I hate Bush more. With the war and Bush alienating us from the rest of the world, I’m going to vote for Kerry.”
–Bob Ackerman, 36
film editor, Andersonville
“I’m pretty much for anyone but Bush. He should be held accountable for his words and actions. The war is not going well. I’ll vote for Kerry.”
–John Link, 24
editor, Bucktown
“We went to war on a lie. We could impeach a president for his sexual appetite, but we can’t do it to the president who lied and sent kids to die in war. That’s appalling. I’ll vote for Kerry because he’s the lesser of two evils.”
–John Pool, 33
store owner, Uptown
“I’m for anyone but Bush. He’s so terrible I’m not even watching the election. All the lies and Iraq. The way he treats the environment is horrible. I’ll vote for Kerry.”
–Hanna Majeske, 19
houseguest, Lakeview
“Gay rights. I don’t want the constitutional amendment, so I’m leaning toward Kerry.”
–Betsy Thurman, 25
retail manager, River west
“Job exportation. The situation in Iraq. Education. I feel good about what I’ve read about Kerry.”
–Becky Vayo, 18
student, Bloomington
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A Chicago Tribune/WGN-Ch. 9 poll of Illinois voters shows that 10 percent in the state remain undecided.
John Kerry 52%
President Bush 38%
Unsure 10%
POLL CONDUCTED AUG. 13-16: MARGIN OF ERROR IS +/-4 PERCENTAGE POINTS
