Some folks need to go back to the lab, the drawing board or wherever they go to crunch some more numbers. The Olympics are part of history, but there’s still time to revisit the prognosticators who tried to predict the U.S. medal tally.
As you may recall reading in RedEye (“A sport for economists,” Aug. 17), Dartmouth professor of international economics Andrew Bernard used wealth, population and other indicators to correctly predict that Americans would win 97 total medals and 39 golds at the 2000 Sydney Olympics. He attempted the same in Athens.
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How they did
Here’s a comparison of some forecasters’ predictions of Team USA’s medal haul.
Prognosticator: Andrew Bernard, economist
Total medals: 93
Gold: 37
Prognosticator: U.S. Olympic Committee’s goal
Total medals: 100
Gold: N/A
Prognosticator: Sports Illustrated
Total medals: 111
Gold: 38
Prognosticator: USA Today
Total medals: 119
Gold: 50
Actual medal count: 103
Gold: 35
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Edited by the sports staff of RedEye.
