Don’t look now, but here come the Florida Marlins.
This time the Cubs and their fans aren’t likely to get ahead of themselves. If Jack McKeon’s survivors can overcome a three-games-to-one deficit in the National League Championship Series, why can’t they erase a deficit of 5 1/2 games in the wild-card race?
Seemingly out of the mix a week ago, the Marlins have joined San Francisco, San Diego and Houston in the group of teams nipping at the Cubs’ heels. The World Series champions are winning the same way they did a year ago, with pitching and a resourceful lineup.
They were strengthened by general manager Larry Beinfest’s trades at the deadline, which brought catcher Paul Lo Duca to fill the Ivan Rodriguez hole and Guillermo Mota to hold leads late in games. But it is the re-emergence of the starting rotation, triggered by A.J. Burnett’s return, that has put Florida on such strong footing this weekend entering the hurricane-threatened series against the Cubs.
Carl Pavano, used mostly as a reliever during the 2003 playoffs, won his 16th game on Thursday. His six solid innings allowed the Marlins to win their seventh game in a row, raising their record to 14-4 after Aug. 13.
They were two games below .500 and 5 1/2 behind the Cubs back then. They since have closed to 2 1/2 games behind.
If this formula sounds familiar, it’s because it’s the same one Florida used during its magical run last summer and fall. The Marlins won 21 of their last 29 games and then went 11-6 in the playoffs. That’s a winning percentage of .697 at crunch time.
Eat your heart out, Ron Santo.
The Marlins’ short legacy is that when they have a chance to win, they run the table. They did it in 1997, beating Cleveland in the World Series. They did it in 2003, beating the Yankees in the World Series.
Believe it or not, those are the only two winning seasons in the franchise’s previous 11. Both times the Marlins entered the playoffs as the wild card. They never have finished first in their division.
Who cares? Three of the last four teams to play in the Series were wild cards.
The Marlins are scheduled to play the Cubs five times in the next 10 days after Friday’s game was postponed by Hurricane Frances. Unless Dusty Baker’s team wins at least four of those, things are going to be a whole lot more tense than they need to be.
Unlike the pitching-thin Giants and Astros, as well as the untested Padres, Florida has what it takes to be a playoff team. Its 3.02 staff ERA in August should be a flashing danger sign for other teams in the wild-card race.
With Burnett, Pavano, Josh Beckett and Dontrelle Willis, the Marlins have a four-man rotation that is almost as strong as the Cubs’ best-in-baseball five. They were fortunate to trade Brad Penny two starts before he suffered a strained biceps injury, making him the Los Angeles Dodgers’ problem.
Florida’s bullpen, fronted by Armando Benitez and Mota, joins San Diego’s as the best among wild-card contenders.
McKeon turned starting pitchers into middle relievers last October, using Pavano, Penny, Willis and even Beckett when they weren’t starting. He has a deeper pitching staff this time around, thanks to guys like Tommy Phelps, Matt Perisho, Nate Bump and Billy Koch (1-2 with a 3.51 ERA in 23 appearances since the White Sox traded him).
The Marlins are 11th in the NL in runs scored but have averaged 5.4 runs during the 18-game run they are on.
Lo Duca is hitting .320 since joining the Marlins. Miguel Cabrera has been as good as expected in his first full season, batting .310 while leading the team with 27 homers and 89 RBIs. Old hands Juan Pierre, Luis Castillo, Alex Gonzalez and Mike Lowell are producing (although Lowell, who hit .221 in August, is not moving well).
Fall approaches. Beware the Fish.
