Dear Tom,
How long will Florida’s hurricane season last? I’m planning a vacation in Orlando for the end of September and I don’t want to run for shelter with four kids.
Eugene
Dear Eugene,
Given the current state of knowledge, it is impossible to forecast the occurrence of hurricanes four weeks in advance. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues hurricane forecasts five days out, but forecast accuracy is unreliable beyond that point.
NHC statistics indicate the peak of the hurricane season at Orlando is mid-September to mid-October, but the chance that a tropical storm (winds 39 m.p.h. or higher) will affect the Orlando area during that entire one-month period is only about one in nine. Like most travelers, you really have no option but to make trip plans and then hope for favorable weather.
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Tom Skilling is chief meteorologist at WGN-TV. His forecasts can be seen Monday through Friday on WGN-TV News at noon and 9 p.m.
Write to: ASK TOM WHY, 2501 Bradley Pl., Chicago, IL 60618 or asktomwhy@wgntv.com (Mail volume precludes personal response.)
WGN-TV meteorologists Steve Kahn, Richard Koeneman and Paul Dailey plus weather producer Bill Snyder contribute to this page.
