To claim the title of “winner” in the first presidential debate, a candidate must win the war of expectations, image and perceptions.
In the eyes of his opponents, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry may be a flip-flopping, French-loving liberal, but they can’t heap enough praise on the man’s talents as a debater. The senator from Massachusetts is not merely great, according to President Bush’s top strategist, Matthew Dowd, he is “the best debater since Cicero.”
And while Kerry might see the president as a reckless, self-satisfied cowboy, he thinks highly of Bush’s rhetorical skills. “He’s won every debate he’s ever had,” Kerry has said repeatedly in the last few weeks.
The goal, of course, is to lower viewers’ expectations of the candidates to the point where they can only look better-than-advertised by the time Thursday’s debate is over.
In what might be considered the ultimate job interview, their jobs are cut out for them. Bush must convince voters that he deserves four more years and that Kerry can’t be trusted to lead the country. Kerry will have to convince them that Bush has bungled the economy and the war and does not deserve a second term. Experts say voters want reassurance, empathy and clues about how the candidates, especially the challenger, make decisions.
But the image fight will go beyond words.
Bush and Kerry tailor political messages not only with sound bites, but also with style.
“In a close election, knowing that 93 percent of a person’s effectiveness as a communicator is judged on style, not content, we can expect appearance to play a large role,” said Charmaine McClarie, whose boutique firm helps executives with image management.
To some, the clothes do make the man.
Color. Fit. Cut. Whether suits or khakis, every bit helps in a race as tight as spandex.
“It’s a controlled image,” said Anna Wildermuth, president of the Association of Image Consultants International.
Although many find these issues inane, they have an impact. Millions of Americans won’t watch the debates–they’ll hear about them later. Thus, “anything that can be done that can affect the spin becomes important,” said James Fallows, who wrote about the debating styles of Bush and Kerry for the Atlantic. “To the extent that you can low-ball the expectation, it’s like beating the point spread.”
For Bush, observers say the bar is much higher than 2000. “It’s hard for an incumbent to say he doesn’t know the issues,” Fallows said. “So many of Bush’s unscripted [public] comments have been poor that, historically, the debates have favored him.” That’s why, said Fallows, the Bush camp has a familiar refrain: “He is the best leader, but you can’t expect him to succeed against a fancy-pants word guy.”
The “fancy-pants word guy” is not generally considered to be a scintillating speaker, but Fallows said Kerry “is seen as coming from behind, so that gives him an advantage.”
–LOS ANGELES TIMES, COX NEWS SERVICE
Foreign policy realities
IRAQ
BUSH: Accused of misleading Americans about the situation in Iraq, Bush is clearly downplaying the severity of the problems. Still, it’s not fair to say that Bush is blind to the difficulties in Iraq, even if he doesn’t like to discuss them.
KERRY: Accused of being a waffler on Iraq, but he’s been consistent on some key points: He’s never backed away from his vote authorizing war, and he’s said repeatedly that Bush should have sought more international help.
WAR ON TERROR
BUSH: Accused of dropping the ball in the fight against Al Qaeda. Officials concede the war in Iraq diverted time, attention and resources. However, it’s impossible to know if Osama bin Laden would have been captured if there had been no Iraq war.
KERRY: Has assailed the Iraq war as a misguided and costly distraction from the anti-terrorism fight launched after Sept. 11, charging that it has shattered U.S. relations with partners abroad and engendered global animosity toward Americans.
The rules of engagement
Rules, rules, rules. No TV shots of spectators yawning. The candidates must be televised shaking hands. No podium envy. What follows are excerpts from the “memorandum of understanding” outlining the rules worked out to govern the three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate for Campaign 2004.
His podium is better than mine: The podiums shall measure 50 inches from the stage floor to the outside top of the podium facing the audience and shall measure 48 inches from the stage floor to the top of the inside podium writing surface facing the respective candidates. … No candidates shall be permitted to use risers or any other device to create an impression of elevated height.*
Shake hands, you’re on the air: The [presidential] candidates shall enter the stage upon a verbal cue by the moderator after the program goes on the air, proceed to center stage, shake hands and proceed directly to their positions behind their podiums or their stools in the case of the Oct. 8 debate.
That’s your opponent, ignore him: The candidates may not ask each other direct questions, but may ask rhetorical questions. The candidates shall not address each other with proposed pledges.
That’s your audience, ignore them: Neither candidate may reference or cite any specific individual sitting in a debate audience at any time during a debate.
Calling Max Factor: Each candidate may use his own makeup person, and adequate facilities shall be provided at the debate site for makeup.
No sweat: The Commission shall use its best efforts to maintain an appropriate temperature according to industry standards for the entire debate.**
Notes: *Kerry is 6-foot-4. Bush is 5-foot-11. The unimposing podium height and their distance apart reportedly favor Bush, who otherwise might look dwarfed by Kerry.
**Kerry reportedly wanted the temperature below 70 degrees, supposedly because he’s more likely to sweat than Bush.
— TRIBUNE
