With at least 10 swing states up for grabs, the presidential race could be determined by a slim margin of electoral votes, 270 of which are needed to win. As election results are tabulated Tuesday, this guide provides the necessary information on what could be one of the closest elections in U.S. history.
ELECTION FORECAST
(Includes map with state electoral vote numbers)
Based on recent polls and other factors, including interviews with campaign officials:
For Kerry: 171
For Bush: 196
Leaning to Bush: 26
Leaning to Kerry: 19
Too close to call: 126
How the campaigns see it
To reach 270 electoral votes, political strategists pore over dozens of possibilities. These scenarios are among those discussed by both presidential campaigns as they plot out which states they need to win.
– JOHN KERRY VICTORY SCENARIOS
SCENARIO A: By taking Florida, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and New Mexico, Kerry wins despite losses in Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio.
ELECTORAL VOTES: 274
SCENARIO B: Kerry wins by taking Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and New Mexico plus every Midwest swing state except Wisconsin.
ELECTORAL VOTES: 274
SCENARIO C: Kerry loses Florida, but still wins by taking Minnesota, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Wisconsin.
ELECTORAL VOTES: 272
– GEORGE W. BUSH VICTORY SCENARIOS
SCENARIO A: Bush wins Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida and Nevada.
ELECTORAL VOTES: 284
SCENARIO B: Despite losing Florida and Pennsylvania, Bush ekes out a victory with wins in Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Nevada.
ELECTORAL VOTES: 273
SCENARIO C: Bush retains the presidency by winning Wisconsin, Iowa, Florida and Nevada.
ELECTORAL VOTES: 271
– TWO SCENARIOS FOR A TIE
In the unlikely event of an electoral tie, the U.S. House, where each state gets a vote, would decide the election in January 2005. The U.S. Senate picks the vice president.
SCENARIO A: Kerry wins Florida, but only two Midwest swing states.
SCENARIO B: Bush wins Florida and New Mexico, but only one Midwest swing state.
ELECTORAL VOTES: KERRY 269 BUSH 269
– NADER FACTOR
The best known of the independent and third-party candidates, Ralph Nader has been drawing about 1 percent in most polls. He is on 35 ballots, and could influence the outcome in closely divided states.
POLL CLOSINGS
All times Central
6 p.m.
Georgia, Indiana*, Kentucky*, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
6:30 p.m.
North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
7 p.m.
Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida*, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire*, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee
7:30 p.m.
Arkansas
8 p.m.
Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming
9 p.m.
Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah
10 p.m.
California, Hawaii, Idaho, Washington
Midnight
Alaska*
* States where polls close at different times; the last closing time shown.
PROJECTING A WINNER
The National Election Pool (NEP), a consortium of The Associated Press and broadcast and cable news networks, will use three sources of data to try to project a winner on election night.
– EXIT POLLING
About 1,500 interviewers are stationed at polling places around the nation to question voters minutes after they’ve cast their ballots.
Phone-interview results from absentee/early voters in 13 states are combined with exit polling.
– SAMPLE PRECINCTS
As soon as polls close, each of the 3,000 pre-selected precincts tabulates its votes and NEP’s reporters call results into data centers.
Sample precinct data become available within an hour of polls closing.
– COUNTY VOTE
This is the actual vote at the county level tabulated by 5,000 Associated Press reporters in every county in the nation.
The last source of data, it comes in throughout the night, depending on how fast counties can count ballots.
THE ELECTORAL TALLY
State-by-state worksheet; 270 electoral votes needed for victory.
Alabama, 9
Alaska, 3
Arizona, 10
Arkansas, 6
California, 55
Colorado, 9
Connecticut, 7
Delaware, 3
Dist. of Columbia, 3
Florida, 27
Georgia, 15
Hawaii, 4
Idaho, 4
Illinois, 21
Indiana, 11
Iowa, 7
Kansas, 6
Kentucky, 8
Louisiana, 9
Maine, 4
Maryland, 10
Massachusetts, 12
Michigan, 17
Minnesota, 10
Mississippi, 6
Missouri, 11
Montana, 3
Nebraska, 5
Nevada, 5
New Hampshire, 4
New Jersey, 15
New Mexico, 5
New York, 31
North Carolina, 15
North Dakota, 3
Ohio, 20
Oklahoma, 7
Oregon, 7
Pennsylvania, 21
Rhode Island, 4
South Carolina, 8
South Dakota, 3
Tennessee, 11
Texas, 34
Utah, 5
Vermont, 3
Virginia, 13
Washington, 11
West Virginia, 5
Wisconsin, 10
Wyoming, 3
TV COVERAGE
All times Chicago time
– CBS, NBC and ABC will start coverage at 6 p.m., with Chicago stations breaking in for local updates.
– The Fox network will pick up coverage from its news channel beginning at 7 p.m., with local updates.
– WGN-Ch. 9 plans an expanded two-hour edition of its news starting at 9 p.m.
– PBS will have a special two-hour edition of “News Hour” beginning at 9 p.m.
– CLTV coverage begins at 6 p.m.
– Telemundo’s coverage begins at 6 p.m., and Univision plans a two-hour report starting at 8 p.m.
– Cable news channels will cover the story throughout the day and night.
DID YOU KNOW?
– ELECTIONS SETTLED IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
1800: Thomas Jefferson (right) and Aaron Burr tied in the Electoral College. The House elected Jefferson president. Burr became vice president.
1824: Andrew Jackson won the popular vote, but none of four candidates had a majority of electoral votes. The House elected John Quincy Adams president.
– PRESIDENTS WHO LOST THE POPULAR VOTE
1876: Republican Rutherford B. Hayes lost the popular vote to Democrat Samuel J. Tilden, but won the presidency by one electoral vote.
1888: Republican Benjamin Harrison lost the popular vote to Democrat Grover Cleveland, 48.6 to 47.8 percent, but won the presidency with 233 electoral votes to 168.
2000: George W. Bush won the electoral vote, 271 to 266, but lost the popular vote to Al Gore. Just 543,895 votes separated the candidates.
– OTHER ELECTION FACTS
– No president in wartime has lost re-election.
– The last senator to be elected directly to the White House was John F. Kennedy in 1960.
– The last Democrat from north of the Mason-Dixon Line to be elected president was also Kennedy in 1960.
– Massachusetts has produced four presidents; Texas three.
