How do the great players win big pots with absolute bluffs?
Logic, most of the time.
“If it doesn’t add up, you should take some action there,” said Howard Lederer, the chip leader entering the final round of the $1 million Poker Superstars Championship that plays out on NBC opposite the Super Bowl pregame show.
In today’s lesson, just watch how Lederer added it up to take a big pot off two-time world champion Johnny Chan.
Johnny Chan
8 of hearts
4 of spades
Howard Lederer
4 of clubs
5 of diamonds
The flop
King of hearts
8 of clubs
9 of hearts
The turn
10 of clubs
With the blinds at $6,000-$12,000, Chan limped from the small blind with 8-4 offsuit. Lederer checked in the big blind with 4-5 offsuit.
The flop came K-8-9. Chan paired his 8. He checked. Lederer bet $12,000, about half the pot.
“Certainly, I would take a shot at trying to win the pot,” Lederer said.
“I’m hoping he missed and I’m just going to win.
“He called. It was the way he called. It’s kind of a dangerous flop.
I could have a lot of draws. If he has a king or a 9, I would expect him to raise me there.”
The turn comes a 10, putting hearts and clubs up.
Chan bet around $25,000, leaving himself about $150,000, a key factor in Lederer’s next move.
“I can’t put him on any two cards that make sense,” Lederer said.
“If he has ace-10, he would probably raise before the flop. If he has queen-10 or jack-10, why would he be betting that hand right now?
It feels like the kind of hand where you check and try to catch a bluff. But even if the 10 hit him, I think I can make him lay it down by raising.
“It was just the fact that he was betting. I decided he would not be betting a strong hand.”
Which allowed Lederer to bet a weak hand. He called Chan’s $25,000 and raised $75,000, about half of Chan’s remaining chips.
“From his perspective, if he’s going to try to rebluff me, he’s going to have to raise his last $75,000,” said Lederer, who will host another fantasy poker camp in Las Vegas this spring. “Now there’s something like $475,000 in the pot, and what are the chances that I’m going to fold for that small amount? It looks like I’m making a small raise, but I’m really raising all his chips because I’m going to bet the rest of his chips on the next card.”
Chan knew it and folded.
“People can say I made a great read, but it wasn’t the read they think about when they hear ‘read,’ ” Lederer said. “It wasn’t like I looked into his soul and up pops a hand I could bluff out. It just didn’t add up. “It’s just in your mind thinking, ‘Could he have that? No. Could he have that? No. Could he have that? No.’ It’s just some card sense. Can you give him two cards that add up to his action? If one plus one doesn’t equal two, then there’s something wrong.”
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Table talk
Catch a bluff: Betting as if you have a weak hand to trap an opponent who is trying to steal the pot.
