1. Jimmie Johnson
The favorite for this year’s championship is whoever was hottest toward the end of last season. That’s an old NASCAR rule of thumb, but Johnson, 29, has transformed it into an instrument as sophisticated as the supercomputers his Hendrick Motorsports engineers use to duplicate his cars and engines. If not for variables that can’t be programmed, such as wrecks caused by others or split-second errors by crewmen, Johnson would be a lock for the 2005 Nextel Cup.
When a driver comes up one lap and eight points shy of a championship (the closest margin ever) … after roaring up from ninth in the standings by winning four of the last six races … under the most difficult emotional circumstances ever overcome in such an onslaught …
When that momentum shows no signs of abating … when all that Hendrick high technology, plus a crew chief nearing the top of his game, Chad Knaus, assure that the variables will be minimized …
When even new NASCAR rules play right into the driver’s hands–making the cars looser, more of a handful to drive, throwing a former off-road dirt-tracker right into his instinctive style …
Then you have what may be the clearest preseason favorite in NASCAR since Darrell Waltrip dominated in the early 1980s.
2. Jeff Gordon
Sorry, Gordon boo-birds, but he’s baaack as usual. He’s a shoo-in to make the 10 finalists, and was in last year’s Chase right down to the final laps. All those crucibles of experience, in winning four championships, didn’t prove an obvious advantage to him down the stretch, but they didn’t hurt.
The biggest question for Gordon his whether his pit crew can be flawless all season. If not for an air hose that got caught under a tire at Darlington in the penultimate race of ’04, we’d almost certainly be calling him “five-time champion” today. Gordon himself is virtually unbeatable, and crew chief Robbie Loomis is getting that way. The tire changers are another matter.
3. Kurt Busch
Sure, he could repeat. But this time he may need a genuine hot streak near the end– such as winning three of the last five, as he did in ’02–to lock up the title. Winning early in the Chase and then backing into the finale is unlikely to cut it this time.
He’s up to the role of champion and representing NASCAR well, so he’ll be cool for the stretch. Best of all, he’s still got Jimmy Fennig, the tough old crew chief who pulled him through last year, running his pits. The variable is whether the luck returns. When a wheel came off at Homestead, Busch made it to pit road by a foot or two while the tire rolled onto the track, bringing the immediate caution that saved his title hopes.
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Not all is well in the House of Earnhardt. As a radical experiment goes, so go the championship chances. The only crew chief Junior’s ever had, Tony Eury Sr., has been moved upstairs as team manager, while Tony Jr. has been shifted to Michael Waltrip’s arm of the team. Pete Rondeau is now boss of Earnhardt’s pits.
Try as Junior might to put the best face on the flip-flop, “I didn’t agree with it at all,” says Eury Sr. “I never agree with breaking up a championship team.” And he still doesn’t seem comfortable with it. The orders came from high up, but nobody’s saying whether it was Junior’s stepmother, Teresa Earnhardt.
5. Tony Stewart
Just let him get a foothold in the Chase and he’ll be in the thick of it. He was tripped up early in the playoffs last year, caught up in a spiteful wreck between non-contenders Robby Gordon and Greg Biffle in the first Chase race at New Hampshire.
Barring another travesty, give Stewart and crew chief Greg Zipadelli just a whiff of championship blood and they’ll win one of the final five races and contend. NASCAR’s Mr. Autumn has still got it in him.
6. Mark Martin
This is more than just a sentimental pick in his final full season of Cup competition. He really could win it, and what a storybook ending that would be for a guy who finished second four times and third four times in the standings. Here’s why he’s a legit contender: All his mechanical problems came in the first half of last season. In the second half, the engine problems were resolved and Martin mounted quite a charge. Imagine that for all season.
