Change is inevitable, even for the league champions.
The Red Sox, featuring at least two new starting pitchers and Edgar Renteria at shortstop, should be deep enough to return to the postseason. The Cardinals corrected their major weakness by acquiring potential ace Mark Mulder, but they face other pitching concerns and the loss of three-fourths of their up-the-middle defense.
One American League general manager says the Cardinals are still the team to beat in the National League. But another, referring to Yadier Molina, asks, “How many teams have ever won a World Series with a 22-year-old catcher?”
Molina will benefit from working with pitching coach Dave Duncan and a veteran staff. But Mike Matheny, who left for the Giants as a free agent, offered leadership and defensive value that far outweighed his subpar offensive production.
The Cardinals also are weaker at shortstop, where David Eckstein replaces Renteria, and at second base, where Mark Grudzielanek replaces Tony Womack. Eckstein and Grudzielanek are hard-nosed Tony La Russa-type players.
But the drop in defense could be noticeable. The Cardinals’ pitchers led the majors in ground ball-to-fly ball ratio last season, and their strikeouts per nine innings ranked just 10th in the NL.
The Cardinals will miss Womack’s speed, and some baseball people believe Eckstein’s offensive and defensive limitations make him better suited for a utility role. The team’s myriad concerns also include Mulder trying to rebound from his second-half struggles, first baseman Albert Pujols dealing with plantar fasciitis, right-hander Matt Morris coming off shoulder surgery and Mike Myers replacing Steve Kline as a left-handed relief specialist. The Cardinals are fortunate in one sense: The NL Central rival Cubs and Astros should be weaker too.
The Red Sox didn’t suffer as many off-season hits, keeping free-agent catcher Jason Varitek and replacing free-agent shortstop Orlando Cabrera with an even better player, Renteria.
Boston’s biggest question is whether the new starting pitchers–Matt Clement, David Wells and Wade Miller–can adequately replace the departed Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe. The task might not be as hard as it appears: Though Martinez and Lowe pitched a total of 399 2/3 innings last season, they had a combined 4.59 ERA.
Boston’s best attribute, depth, won’t create much excitement, but it should make the team relatively injury-proof.
The Red Sox enter spring training with six starting pitchers. If they lose Varitek, they have Doug Mirabelli. If they lose third baseman Bill Mueller, they have Kevin Youkilis. Ramon Vazquez provides insurance in the infield; Jay Payton does the same in the outfield.
Put it all together, and it will be difficult for the Sox to avoid winning 90 games. They just don’t figure to do it the same way they did last season.
