Northwestern vs. Illinois
Records: Northwestern, 15-15, 6-10 Big Ten; Illinois, 29-1, 15-1.
When they met: Illinois won both games, 78-68 at Welsh-Ryan Arena and 84-48 at Assembly Hall.
Tournament history: Illini have advanced past quarters four times; they recorded their only championship in 2003 but were dethroned by Wisconsin last year. Wildcats trying to reach the semifinals for first time.
Story line: Northwestern played a ragged game in edging Michigan 58-56 in the first round. It must get its act together against the nation’s No. 1 team. The Illini have something to prove after suffering their only loss Sunday at Ohio State.
Ones to watch: Illinois guard Dee Brown, the Big Ten Player of the Year, will be out to make amends after an out-of-character mediocre performance against Buckeyes. NU forward Vedran Vukusic, one of the league’s premier players, had a substandard game against Michigan, scoring only seven points and fouling out.
Wildcats win: If they play their best game of the season and Illinois plays its worst game. Their Princeton offense will have to be operating at optimum efficiency, and their fullcourt trapping defense will have to be as effective as it was in the second half of the Michigan game.
Illini win: If they play their normal game. The Wildcats will make it easy for the Illini if Thursday’s hang-ups continue–abysmal free-throw and three-point shooting and foul problems involving key players.
What we see: Illinois will win. Northwestern needs a victory to stay in the hunt for an NIT bid, but it’s not going to happen.
Indiana vs. Minnesota
Records: Indiana, 15-12, 10-6; Minnesota, 20-9, 10-6.
When they met: After winning 70-65 at home on Jan. 26, the Gophers suffered a 71-56 loss at Indiana Feb. 12.
Tournament history: Indiana lost in 2001 title game and was semifinalist in 2002 and 2003. Minnesota was a semifinalist in 1998 and 1999, but the victories were voided later because of NCAA sanctions for infractions.
Story line: An NCAA invitation may be on the line. The Gophers, who had a very easy non-conference schedule, ended the regular season with four straight wins. The Hoosiers, who had a very difficult non-conference slate, won four of last five, the lone defeat by two points at Wisconsin.
Ones to watch: Indiana guard Bracey Wright was the league’s leading scorer with an 18.5 average. Minnesota guard Vincent Grier was third with a 17.9 average and beat out Wright to become a first-team All-Big Ten pick.
Hoosiers win: If they exploit their superior depth, limit their turnovers and overcome their rebounding weaknesses. Freshmen D.J. White, Robert Vaden and A.J. Ratliff must pick up where they left off in regular season.
Gophers win: If Grier gets some scoring help, and they continue to be solid defensively and in the rebounding department. During the regular season Minnesota led the league in steals with an average of 9.34 per game, but Indiana had a better assist-turnover ratio (0.91 versus 0.89).
What we see: Indiana will win what should be the best tournament game of the first two days. The Hoosiers have a number of talented young players and the experience could help them to become a league powerhouse next season.
Iowa vs. Michigan State
Records: Iowa, 20-10, 7-9; Michigan State, 22-5, 13-3.
When they met: Michigan State was a 75-64 winner in the only meeting Feb. 5 at Iowa.
Tournament history: Iowa won the championship in 2001 and finished second in 2002. Michigan State took the title in 1999 and 2000.
Story line: Michigan State is on a roll, seemingly headed for a rematch with Illinois in the title game. The only blemish on the Spartans’ record in the nine games since their loss to Illinois is an overtime defeat to Indiana. Iowa has had an up-and-down season, but the Hawkeyes have won four straight and Thursday’s 19-point rout of Purdue was their most lopsided victory since Dec. 21.
Ones to watch: Iowa guard Adam Haluska had 17 points, six rebounds and five assists vs. Purdue. MSU’s Paul Davis should dominate Iowa’s slender low-post players.
Hawkeyes win: If Haluska and fellow guard Jeff Horner put on another stellar performance–they hit seven of their 13 three-point shots Thursday. Greg Brunner, a dangerous scorer from both down low and the perimeter, is the league’s second-best rebounder. He needs help from foul-prone center Erek Hanson.
Spartans win: If the best bench brigade in the Big Ten wears down the Hawkeyes. The Spartans had a plus-8.5 rebounding margin during the regular season, making them the Big Ten’s best by far in that department, and they were second in the conference in steals.
What we see: Michigan State will win. Although the Hawkeyes’ four straight wins have come against the lower tournament seeds, they may provide the self-confidence they need to keep the game close. The Spartans superior depth and strong defense will be the difference.
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
Records: Ohio State, 20-11, 8-8; Wisconsin, 20-7, 11-5.
When they met: Wisconsin won 72-66 at the Kohl Center on Jan. 11 and 64-56 at Ohio State on Feb. 27.
Tournament history: Ohio State won the tournament in 2002 and lost to Illinois in the 2003 title game. Wisconsin is the defending champion.
Story line: The Buckeyes can’t go to either the NCAA tournament or the NIT because of self-imposed sanctions, so now they’re trying to spoil other schools’ seasons. After handing top-ranked Illinois its only defeat of the season on Sunday, they’re attempting to knock off the tournament’s defending champion.
Ones to watch: Ohio State guard Tony Stockman came off the bench to score 25 and lead the Buckeyes to Thursday’s come-from-behind win over Penn State. Wisconsin forward Mike Wilkinson is an all-conference first-team selection.
Buckeyes win: If they can curtail the scoring opportunities of two of the conference’s best all-around players, Wilkinson and fellow forward Alando Tucker. They also have to get scoring from center Terence Dials and reserve forward Matt Sylvester, both of whom had poor games Thursday after excelling in Sunday’s Illinois game.
Badgers win: If Wilkinson and Tucker play up to their usual high standards. The Badgers lead the conference in scoring defense and are second in three-point field goal percentage and rebounding margin.
What we see: Wisconsin will win. Ohio State’s takedown of Illinois was the Buckeyes’ only win in their last four regular-season games, and they had to go all out to eliminate Penn State, the worst team in the conference, in their tournament opener. The Badgers have too much going for them to let Ohio State do to them what it did to Illinois.
