What’s a horse-racing handicapper from Kentucky doing measuring up the NCAATournament field?
Chalk it up to March madness.
Just for fun (remember, this is for entertainment purposes
only), Chicago Tribune horse-racing handicapper Liam Durbin wrote a computer model for the tournament based on his horse-racing form, keeping some categories intact.
Durbin’s computer-rated selections for the Arlington and Hawthorne tracks appear in the Tribune daily and online at chicagosports.com. But the guts of this basketball program are different. Here’s how it works:
SPEED: Ateam’s ability to put points on the board
consistently.
CLASS: Ateam’s strength of schedule and strength of
conference, with games played against ranked teams.
FORM: The ability to win games, in particular against
teams that have their own quantity and quality wins.
CONNECTIONS: Acatch-all for coach’s win percentage,
and other intangibles Durbin threw in, well, because
it’s his program. He even predicts score, a definite
sign of madness.
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ILLINI FORTUNE TELLING
How will Durbin’s predictions fare? RedEye will track them during the tournament.
But here’s how his formula predicts Illinois’ next three weeks, with a comment from RedEye’s own Whizzer.
First round
TEAM / SPEED / CLASS / FORM / CONN / FINAL
Illinois 10.5, 18.5, 12.5, 12.1, 84
Fair. Dickenson 9.5, 1.5, 7.5, 7.9, 44
Whizzer: Really?
Illinois over a No. 16 seed. Tough call.
Domo arigato, Mr. Roboto.
Second round
TEAM / SPEED / CLASS / FORM / CONN / FINAL
Illinois 10.8, 16.1, 14.4, 10.9, 83
Texas 9.2, 3.9, 5.6, 9.1, 51
Whizzer: Bold stroke.
I have Nevada here in my bracket,
but what do I know? I’m a cartoon.
Sweet 16
TEAM / SPEED / CLASS / FORM / CONN / FINAL
Illinois 10.7, 13.9, 11.9, 11.5, 83
Boston College 9.3, 6.1, 8.1, 8.5, 59
Whizzer: Illinois by 24?
That’s too rich for my blood, but I agree with the result.
Elite Eight
TEAM / SPEED / CLASS / FORM / CONN / FINAL
Illinois 10.1, 10.3, 11.3, 9.2, 87
Oklahoma St. 9.9, 9.7, 8.7, 10.8, 84
Whizzer: Crunch time. I’ll go along with the box, but I’ll add this will be the best game of the tourney.
Final Four
TEAM / SPEED / CLASS / FORM / CONN / FINAL
Illinois 10.8, 11.1, 12.4, 8.9, 84
Pittsburgh 9.2, 8.9, 7.6, 11.1, 75
Whizzer: Pittsburgh doesn’t win a game. My brackets has Gonzaga here. And sorry, Bulldogs. It’s over. Again.
National championship
TEAM / SPEED / CLASS / FORM / CONN / FINAL
Illinois 10.1, 11.7, 8.4, 39.5, 83
North Carolina 9.9, 8.3, 11.6, 40.5, 82
Whizzer: Wishful thinking from an in-state computer. Has this hard drive seen the Tar Heels front line? Control-alt-delete
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Edited by Chris Malcolm (ccmalcolm@tribune.com) and Chris Courtney (cdcourtney@tribune.com)
