The NBA is watching too. March Madness not only pertains to the NCAA tournament, but also to the travel schedules of NBA general managers and personnel directors rushing to get the last game looks at a sizable portion of the next class of players entering the league. These games have added importance aside from which team wins.
Just ask Ben Gordon, who zoomed up to No. 3 in the NBA draft last June as his team went to the championship.
Ask Luol Deng, who solidified his status as a top-10 draft pick.
Ask Dwyane Wade, whose tournament performance for Marquette in 2003 answered big questions about his ability and made him a top-five pick.
NBA executives watch how players perform under pressure in big games, what plays they make, whether they want the ball or not, how they act and react, even what they say and how they relate to their teammates.
Of North Carolina’s talented shooting guard Rashard McCants, one NBA executive said: “He’ll probably be a lottery pick. He’s definitely a [head case].”
The executive said he will be watching McCants’ behavior carefully after questions and mysteries about him throughout his college career.
After interviews with almost a dozen general managers, personnel directors and scouts, here’s a look at their thinking about the first round of the draft as of mid-March. Many of the younger players will not declare, but everyone eligible is included in this list:
1. Andrew Bogut, Utah, 6 feet 10 inches, 240 pounds. Consensus No. 1 pick. The Australian is a hard-working tough guy. Not a great athlete, but highly skilled and considered above the field with a strong season.
2. Chris Paul, Wake Forest, 6-1, 170. Some think if a team looking for a point guard gets No. 1, they could go for him. Isiah Thomas-like qualities, one GM says. Can run a team, sees floor and shoots.
3. Marvin Williams, North Carolina, 6-9, 230. Pros love the Tar Heels’ backup. Say he’s a future big-time All-Star. Plays hard, inside-outside game, shoots, plays in the post. This freshman plays the right way.
4. Rudy Gay, Connecticut, 6-9, 220. Also a freshman, but less likley than Williams to come out. Fluid-type player who some say will play small forward or even shooting guard.
5. Hakim Warrick, Syracuse, 6-8, 210. The benefits of four years. Some still wonder about defense because he has played in Syracuse’s zone so long and seems a “tweener” at small forward and power forward in pros. But pros like long wingspan, athleticism, good hands and ability to finish strong.
6. Fran Vasquez, Spain, 6-9, 230. At 22, considered the foreigner perhaps most physically ready to play in the NBA, which now is a priority. That moves him ahead of projects such as Martynas Andriuskevicius and Nemanja Aleksandrov.
7. Josh Boone, Connecticut, 6-10, 240. Defends and blocks shots. Not the high ceiling to develop, but has complementary skills pros are starting to covet. Some say he’s a reach this high.
8. Deron Williams, Illinois, 6-3, 210. His body’s a little thick, but the scouts like his leadership capabilities, his control of a team, feel for the game and ability to help teammates. Something of a Joe Dumars type.
9. Gerald Green, 6-7, 210. Gulf Shores (Houston) Academy. There’s always a next. He’s in the Tracy McGrady line, a great athlete with an all-around game.
10. J.J. Redick, Duke, 6-4, 190. Coming fast with a skill the pros covet. Great, great shooter. With zones and style-of-play changes, he has a skill in vogue. Team with an inside presence will love to have him despite athletic limitations, and they like his toughness and leadership.
11. Chris Taft, Pittsburgh, 6-10, 230. Before the season, many regarded the power forward as the 2005 No. 1 overall pick. But pros have cooled because of a seemingly indifferent attitude and inconsistent play.
12. Rashad McCants, North Carolina, 6-3, 210. Big-time scorer and shooter with suspect reputation, though there’s always someone to gamble on talent.
13. Nemanja Aleksandrov, 6-10, 215, Serbia. There is a bit of a foreign backlash with young kids developing slowly, but someone will love his skilled game.
14. Sean May, North Carolina, 6-9, 230. A little undersized, but a hard worker with good hands the pros like. He’s improving in the big games.
15. Wayne Simien, Kansas, 6-8, 255. Probably not even that tall, but tough guy who makes things happen and pros say is in class of Robert Traylor, Danny Fortson, Michael Sweetney and even Carlos Boozer.
16. Adam Morrison, 6-8, 205, Gonzaga. Pros like him more than the better-known teammate Ronny Turiaf. Doesn’t look like the kind of tough guy who makes plays. Sort of a Phil Jackson when he was with Knicks.
17. Monta Ellis, 6-3, 175 Lanier (Jackson, Miss.) High School. Intriguing, explosive scorer who pros are not sure is a scoring guard or point guard, though high school all-star games this week will determine who rises among the preps.
18. Martynas Andriuskevicius, 7-3, 240, Lithuania. Big man who, like most big Euros, plays outside and is weak. Inability of Darko Milicic and Nikoloz Tskitishvili to play is scaring teams off these guys.
19. Martell Webster, 6-7, 235, Seattle Prep. Big-time shooter with a classic stroke who some scouts say is ready, though that has been said about high schoolers before.
20. Kennedy Winston, 6-6, 230, Alabama. Small forward who should be able to shoot and score enough to help someone.
21. Johan Petro, 7-0, 260. France. Athletic-enough big man who can fill a role; compared by some to Denver’s Francisco Elson.
22. Joey Graham, 6-7, 220, Oklahoma State. Athletic “tweener” who needs to improve his shooting. Comparisons to Darvin Ham, who has been around the NBA a long time.
23. Ike Diogu, 6-8, 255, Arizona State. Could move up from here with improved scoring and shooting; viewed as a hard worker.
24. Daniel Gibson, 6-2, 190, Texas. Everyone likes and needs point guards. Many scouts like him over the better-known Raymond Felton.
25. Tiago Splitter, 6-10, 240. Brazil. More talent on defense than usual this low in the first round, but some teams fear a large buyout could keep him away at first.
26. Raymond Felton, 6-1, 200, North Carolina. A team could grab him higher, though some execs think he’s too out of control and an erratic decision-maker.
27. Jarrett Jack, 6-3, 200, Georgia Tech. Likened by one to Randy Livingston, a tough point guard who bounced around after injuries.
28. Channing Frye, 6-11, 250, Arizona. Good size. Not tremendously skilled, but a legitimate big man some see as a first-round sleeper.
29. Charlie Villanueva, Connecticut, 6-10, 240. The one-time headed-to-Illinois big guy scares the pros with his apparent indifference in some games. But he’s big, strong and mean, and they like that.
30. Dee Brown, 6-0, 185, Illinois. Most don’t project him in the first round, but he’s a nice risk with improved shooting to be a tempo changer.
Not all the underclassmen will leave college, and some of the high schoolers and internationals will not declare for the draft. So there are several players who could move into the first round, even high, depending on postseason workouts.
Among the most intriguing are New Mexico’s Danny Granger and Texas A&M shooter Antoine Wright, whom many scouts see in the first round. Duke’s Shelden Williams, a physical guy who plays below the rim, could get there as well. Indiana high school player Josh McRoberts from Carmel could move up with family said to be pushing him to go pro.
Though small, Salim Stoudamire, cousin of Blazers’ Damon, could sneak in as a great shooter. The best athlete could be Memphis’ Rodney Carney. First-round guys on some general managers’ lists include shooting guards Marko Tomas from Croatia, Rudy Fernandez from Spain and Louisville’s Francisco Garcia. Georgia high schooler Louis Williams interests some, though he’s small at 6-2, and Washington’s exciting 5-9 Nate Robinson also is considered too small.
Florida power forward David Lee is on some minds, along with Maryland point guard John Gilchrist and Arkansas’ Ronnie Brewer, a big potential point guard and the son of former NBA player Ron Brewer.
