Timing is everything in life.
“My father taught me that a long time ago,” Commissioner Bud Selig said the other day, discussing the successful first season of the Washington Nationals.
Isn’t that true?
A year ago, the Baltimore Orioles and Montreal Expos were third- and fifth-place teams, respectively.
Fans along the Chesapeake Bay or Potomac River who wanted to see playoff-race baseball had to hop on the highway and head north to New York or south to Atlanta.
That figured to be the case again this year, with the only significant change being the Expos’ address. But take a look at the standings.
Under Hall of Famer Frank Robinson, the team once known as the Expos is in an unfamiliar position, leading the National League East by 2 1/2 games over the Braves as the second half resumes.
The franchise that has had the market all to itself since the Senators left Washington for Arlington, Texas, in 1972, the Baltimore Orioles, is 1 1/2 games behind the Twins in the wild-card race after leading the American League East for most of the first half.
The question no longer is whether the Baltimore-Washington market is big enough for two teams, but whether it’s going to have two playoff teams.
The bet here? No, but who would have thought it would be a topic for discussion.
With the season more than half over, we’re counting only nine teams out for the playoffs, and a week from now we might regret writing off one or two of those. Here’s a quick run through 21 teams hoping for a magic carpet ride:
Playoff locks
(Teams are listed in the order of their relative strength)
CARDINALS: Until further notice, consider the National League the Cardinals and 15 overmatched sparring partners. Tony La Russa’s powerhouse broke to an 11 1/2–game lead over Houston despite injuries to Scott Rolen and Larry Walker, as well as an inconsistent performance by Mark Mulder (10-5, 4.34). The second-half schedule is daunting–two West Coast trips, road series in Atlanta, Florida and Washington, in addition to the emotional 14 games with the Cubs–so the Cardinals likely will slow down a little, winning 96 games, not 106.
WHITE SOX: Closer Dustin Hermanson and Jon Garland, who won 13 games from the No. 5 spot, are difference-makers on a pitching staff that no longer takes a back seat to the one in Minnesota. The Sox have the AL’s best combination of speed and power (first in stolen bases, fourth in home runs) and have become more dangerous since Frank Thomas rejoined the team. They haven’t played Boston or the Yankees yet and have 12 games left against Minnesota, but the depth of the pitching staff makes a collapse unlikely.
ANGELS: Like the White Sox, the Angels are balanced. They also have a manager (Mike Scioscia) and many veteran players who ran the table three years ago. The biggest surprise is the turnaround of a rotation that let the team down a year ago. Bartolo Colon, Jarrod Washburn and newcomer Paul Byrd are giving the Angels a trio that has been almost as good as Garland, Mark Buehrle and Freddy Garcia. While Oakland has surged, it appears the Angels have a clear path to the playoffs.
Good bets
RED SOX: Thanks largely to All-Stars Matt Clement, David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, the Red Sox finally got rolling and passed Baltimore in the East. While the defending World Series champs have the pedigree, they also have a lot of questions about their pitching staff, especially in the bullpen. Curt Schilling returns from his ankle injury as a one- or two-inning reliever, probably moving into the hole vacated when disappointing closer Keith Foulke had knee surgery. The Red Sox play 43 of their remaining 75 games at Fenway Park, where the faithful will implore GM Theo Epstein to trade for more pitching.
BRAVES: Bobby Cox has done a marvelous job to get a young team into position to make a strong run at its 14th consecutive division title. John Smoltz and Andruw Jones have carried a team that has had more than its share of injuries, the worst being those to Chipper Jones and Tim Hudson, who was expected to challenge for a Cy Young Award in his first NL season. Scouts say the Braves have been playing better since putting 10 rookies on their roster, so Cox will have to be careful how he handles things when the veterans get healthy. GM John Schuerholz is among those trying to trade for relief pitching.
PADRES: Geography is everything for the Padres, who are the best team in baseball’s weakest division, the NL West. As long as starters Adam Eaton and Jake Peavy take their turns (Eaton is on the disabled list but expected back soon), there’s no way the Diamondbacks or the Dodgers will make a serious run at San Diego, which survived a 10-17 June triggered by a run of injuries. Mark Loretta and Phil Nevin also are expected back soon. The Padres would love to trade for a starter.
YANKEES: Turns out you still have to play the game. The Yankees have an All-Star roster all right, but Randy Johnson has been a disappointment and they are only six games over .500, tied for third in the wild-card race. History says they will get it together when they need to, but they no longer have an edge over Boston and could wind up battling Minnesota or a surprising contender like Baltimore for the wild card. Carl Pavano’s return from injury is vital for a rotation that has a 4.82 ERA. GM Brian Cashman’s creativity and George Steinbrenner’s wallet could provide several additions at the trading dealing, but there doesn’t appear to be many difference-makers available.
Not-so-good bets
NATIONALS: It has been a magical first half for a team built around veterans cast off elsewhere and unproven talent. Livan Hernandez and young closer Chad Cordero have been vital, along with unsung middle men Luis Ayala and Gary Majewski. The Nationals have gone 24-10 in one-run games, the most such victories in the majors, and will need to continue winning the tough ones if they are to maintain a 2 1/2-game lead over Atlanta or win a wild-card playoff race that could find six or seven teams alive entering September. They play 19 of their last 28 games at RFK Stadium, where they are 30-13.
TWINS: As usual, the Twins have pitching. They have been let down by a rebuilt infield. They are hoping to get a major lift from Bret Boone, but he was hitting .231 before Seattle designated him for assignment and is unlikely to give them the kind of lift Shannon Stewart did two years ago. The Twins have 12 games remaining against the White Sox but have written off the division, if their recent published remarks are to be believed. They do have Ron Gardenhire in the dugout and Terry Ryan in the GM’s box, so no one will be surprised if they go to the playoffs for the fourth year in a row.
ATHLETICS: You don’t trade away two starting pitchers like Hudson and Mulder and make it back to the playoffs. But the Athletics have seen enough from their young starters, especially Joe Blanton and Dan Haren, to believe that they can surprise. They closed the first half by winning 17 of 21 to climb a game above .500 and into position to contend for the wild-card spot. Re-signing Mark Kotsay to an extension kept a thin lineup intact. Though there doesn’t appear to be enough firepower in the lineup, this is a team that has gone 240-129 in the second half over the last five years.
ASTROS: Another fast finisher, the Astros rode All-Stars Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalt and Brad Lidge to a 23-8 record after June 7 to jump back into contention. Andy Pettitte also showed signs of getting back to form, which could make them formidable in the second half. This is a weak lineup, especially with Jeff Bagwell gone for the season after shoulder surgery, so GM Tim Purpura probably could improve his team if he had money to spend. It doesn’t appear he does, though.
ORIOLES: If Sammy Sosa had anything left, this really would be a dangerous team. Steady production from Brian Roberts and Miguel Tejada set the tone for one of baseball’s biggest first-half surprises. But Sosa doesn’t have anything left, so it’s wishful thinking for the Orioles to hope he will carry them. They need young lefty Erik Bedard to return strong from a knee injury that triggered their fall from first place. The Orioles appear aggressive in pursuing a front-line starter, but in recent years they have been too dysfunctional to pull off an impact trade.
Long odds
CUBS: We know they are supposed to have the best rotation in baseball. We also know Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Carlos Zambrano and Greg Maddux are a pedestrian 21-15, which won’t cut it for a team that is deficient in every other department. Nomar Garciaparra is a shortstop, not a miracle worker. The only way this team does anything is if GM Jim Hendry pays heavily to add a middle-of-the-order bat and two relievers.
INDIANS: Bob Wickman’s comeback from Tommy John surgery has been a huge plus for an unsung pitching staff. Center fielder Grady Sizemore has been a force from the leadoff spot. If GM Mark Shapiro adds a productive hitter at third base or in the outfield, the Indians could pass Minnesota and challenge for the wild card.
MARLINS: Jack McKeon doesn’t have the magic touch anymore. From the pitching staff to the lineup, this has become an underachieving team. Carlos Delgado has done his part, but the lineup hasn’t been any better with him in it. Outfielder Jeremy Hermida, the club’s top prospect, could be called up to add some young legs.
Wasted hope
METS: Carlos Beltran is under the gun to pull off some stretch-run magic, but the reality is rookie manager Willie Randolph has done well to keep this mediocre collection on the fringe of contention. The Mets are 10th in runs scored and 11th in staff ERA. That’s not a playoff recipe.
PHILLIES: The firing of Larry Bowa hasn’t given this team the lift fans had hoped. It has taken great production from Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell to offset injuries to Jim Thome and to much of the pitching staff, the biggest being Randy Wolf’s elbow injury. GM Ed Wade likely will be fired if the Phillies don’t stay close.
RANGERS: Same old story. There’s not enough pitching to support a dynamic lineup, and Kenny Rogers’ suspension won’t help anything. Buck Showalter manages games better than he manages people, which isn’t good over an exhausting season.
TIGERS: Give Detroit credit for being only six games out in the wild-card race while essentially playing the first half without their two big acquisitions, Magglio Ordonez and Troy Percival. If Ordonez hits, Jeremy Bonderman keeps pitching the way he is and GM Dave Dombrowski adds a quality starter, the Tigers could pass Minnesota and Cleveland, putting them in position to contend in 2006.
BLUE JAYS: Roy Halladay got Toronto into the neighborhood of a wild-card race, but he’s going to miss at least a month, probably two, after breaking a bone in his shin last week. Shortstop Aaron Hill might make a Rookie of the Year run, but it doesn’t look as if this team is going anywhere except home, even if the Jays use their budget flexibility to make a pickup or two. They are looking for players signed for 2006 and beyond.
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progers@tribune.com
