The overture stops playing Tuesday in the NBA’s game of free-agent musical chairs as free agents can finally begin signing contracts. It figures to be a good day for moving companies and real estate agents, but the Bulls’ Eddy Curry and Tyson Chandler are expected to still be standing.
The Atlanta Hawks are prepared to sign Phoenix free agent Joe Johnson to a $70 million contract with $20 million up front in a deal that sends backup guard Boris Diaw and two first-round picks to the Suns. The ramification for the Bulls’ top free agents is it’s now doubtful cash-strapped Atlanta, which had the most interest in Curry and Chandler, will make a major offer for either.
It’s also unlikely the few other teams with available salary-cap space–Charlotte, New Orleans and the Los Angeles Clippers–will be in the market for either Curry or Chandler.
So what do the Bulls do?
With Curry, because his contract is not insurable due to a heart condition, he’ll probably have to play out his final season as an unrestricted free agent. Once the season starts, since he is on a one-year deal, he cannot be traded.
There’s a possibility Atlanta could trade for Curry if he were willing to accept a modest deal. Or he could take one from the Bulls, though he has said he will not. The Bulls have long liked Atlanta power forward Al Harrington, who is considered expendable with the drafting of North Carolina’s Marvin Williams. The Bulls could also throw in guard Chris Duhon, with whom they’ve been unable to come to terms.
It doesn’t, in my humble opinion, make sense for the Bulls to re-sign Duhon for the $2 million to $3 million per year he reportedly is asking for with a guard-heavy team that includes Kirk Hinrich and Ben Gordon. Because of Duhon’s status as a second-round pick, money spent toward his signing would be subtracted from the Bulls’ $5 million salary-cap exception. For example, if the Bulls signed Duhon for $2 million, they’d have about $3 million to start a contract for a top free agent.
With the one-time “amnesty” clause for high-salaried players in the new labor agreement, signing Duhon could cost the Bulls a chance for one of those players expected to be released, such as Michael Finley and Brian Grant.
The Bulls like Duhon, so he probably will be re-signed. But it may not be until the free-agent landscape clears a bit.
Also, given the back troubles in the 2003-04 season and bench-playing status of Chandler, he’s unlikely to get a significant offer. So he could play out his contract as well.
It’s certainly a risk for the Bulls with both, but under the terms of the labor agreement, a maximum offer by the Bulls to Curry or Chandler after next season would exceed by about $20 million and one year the best offer any other team could make. So if either had great seasons and wanted to leave the Bulls, they’d have to accept a far smaller contract.
Plus, there are not expected to be many teams with salary-cap room after next season. And maximum contracts are expected to be rare in the future with teams allowed to make up for their old contract mistakes in the amnesty provision and a certainty after every season in the new deal there will be a dollar-for-dollar luxury tax.
If it were me–and we know the Bulls rarely listen–I’d trade Curry if a team would be willing to sign him. It’s hard to believe anyone would give him more than three years given the insurance issues. Then I’d offer Chandler a deal worth, say, $50 million over six years, perhaps starting at $7 million to $8 million per season. It would be fair market value for the Bulls and guarantee Chandler security.
After next season, the Bulls can get under the salary cap and pursue a power forward–they’ll look at short-term backups for now such as Tom Gugliotta and Malik Allen–trade Curry now for someone like Harrington or go after Grant if he is released. So even if Curry or Chandler left as free agents after next season–and they’d likely have to accept considerably less than the Bulls would be offering–the Bulls would be so far under the salary cap they’d be the major player in free agency.
It could mean the Bulls running in place this season until being able to make major improvements after the 2005-06 season.
So amid the flurry of deals and signings to commence Tuesday, don’t look for the Bulls to do much now and perhaps for the rest of the summer. They probably are guaranteed to have the same team back with little interest in their free agents, and they remain in good position to make them the best offers in the future if they choose to do so.
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sasmith@tribune.com
