As they prepare “The Baseball Book,” 2005 updated version, the entire chapter “Mediocrity” will be devoted to the Cubs.
For a team listed in the preseason edition of the book under the heading “Playoff Possibilites,” this is a failure as conspicuous as leaving a runner on third base with no outs. Which, come to think of it, is one reason the Cubs are such models of mediocrity.
Granted, by the time the book is finished, footnotes and asterisks in the chapter will run longer than the original text. But make no mistake about it, these Cubs have been put in the right chapter, despite such high hopes and excessive expectations.
At the completion of each of the season’s first four months, the Cubs were never more than one game above .500 and never more than two games below.
Their high-water mark was six games above .500; their low six games below.
Their longest winning streak was seven games in late May and early June; their longest losing streak was eight games twice, including the one that ended against the Cardinals on Thursday, the same one that moved them from the “Playoff Possibilities” chapter to “Mediocrity.”
In fact, Thursday’s 16-hit, 11-4 victory and Friday’s 4-1 flawless success against the team with baseball’s second-best record pose more questions about the season than they possibly could answer, the biggest one being: “What took so long?”
Well, with the help of many scouts, front-office people, broadcasters and players from other teams (some of them ex-Cubs), we’ll try to determine what went wrong.
The opinions are varied, though all agree the Cubs should have been better than they are, despite the asterisks and footnotes.
So let us count the ways–in no particular order, with the disclaimer that all the so-called experts believed trading Sammy Sosa was the best off-season move, and with the understanding that many have to be quoted anonymously.
Not re-signing Alou
It’s hard to tell whether not re-signing him or not replacing him was the bigger crime. By himself last season, Moises Alou produced 39 homers and 106 RBIs.
In his place, Todd Hollandsworth, Jason Dubois, Matt Murton, Matt Lawton, Jody Gerut and Ben Grieve–whew!–had produced nine homers and 49 RBIs in the first 114 games, 14th among 16 NL teams in both categories.
“Actually,” one front-office person said, “they made a very good baseball decision not to re-sign Alou. They just didn’t replace him.”
The Patterson expectations
“That’s why they didn’t sign Alou,” one longtime scout said. “They thought [Corey Patterson] was going to replace his numbers. He hasn’t.”
Production from Cubs center fielders Patterson, Jerry Hairston, Jose Macias and Jeromy Burnitz? A batting average that is 28th among 30 major-league teams.
And now the question is whether Patterson fits into future plans.
No leadoff hitter
This, too, is tied in with Patterson. The Cubs have used seven players in the leadoff spot, and they were No. 29 in on-base percentage, No. 29 in batting average and No. 28 in runs before the St. Louis series.
“To me,” one well-respected scout said, “the lack of a leadoff man and the bullpen were the two most glaring weaknesses.”
Bullpen
This falls into two categories: Pre-LaTroy Hawkins and post. Perhaps manager Dusty Baker’s biggest mistake this season was opening with the recently departed Hawkins as the closer instead of Ryan Dempster.
“It was the wrong thing and sent a bad message,” one expert said. “But almost everyone else has been as bad, except for Dempster.”
The Cubs’ bullpen, going into the St. Louis series, had the second-most losses in baseball (behind Kansas City) and was 25th in walks and hits per nine innings.
Veterans like Hawkins and Mike Remlinger have been dispatched elsewhere, and the Iowa shuttle has worked overtime in filling the other spots.
“To me, the bullpen has no heart,” one very conservative scout said. “They have just killed the team. They come in and walk guys and give up hits. It has been that way all year.”
“It wasn’t reliable from the start when Hawkins set the tone,” another scout said, “and it still isn’t.”
Lack of big hits
Going into the St. Louis series, the Cubs were hitting .219 with runners in scoring position and two outs.
Enough said.
No veteran `character’
This is one of the favorite topics of radio color man Ron Santo.
“The players are the ones who are going to police the clubhouse,” Santo said. “A manager can only do so much. A manager like Dusty, of course, is going to protect his players. He’s a winner.
“It’s really up to those [clubhouse leaders] to turn things around. But unfortunately, we don’t have that ballplayer or two or three on this ballclub. We have talent, but we don’t have the player who walks into clubhouse and straightens things out.”
Or, as one former Cub put it: “They didn’t replace guys they needed to. They let a lot of gamers go and didn’t go get guys like them.”
Fundamentals, defense
“To be honest with you,” one front-office man said, “they don’t play very sound fundamental baseball. They have no speed, they don’t hit-and-run, they don’t steal, they can’t do a lot of things. They’re a station-to-station team, and when you have that kind of ballclub, the pitching has to be very, very good. It hasn’t been.”
Three pitchers failing to cover first base on ground balls to the right side of the infield in one game said it all.
“Baserunning mistakes, defensive miscues, not getting key hits, bad fundamental baseball,” a scout said.
Injuries, injuries, injuries
At one time the Cubs had their three highest-paid players on the disabled list: Kerry Wood, Nomar Garciaparra and Mark Prior.
“So has every other team,” one scout said sarcastically. “And [Neifi] Perez filled in at shortstop fine.”
“Injuries always hurt, especially to key people you’re really counting on,” TV analyst and former Arizona manager Bob Brenly said. “But good teams usually find a way to weather the storm. Obviously, you need to get a little lucky sometimes with the guys you call up from the minors, or maybe have [fill-ins] exceed their career numbers. Obviously, that didn’t happen.”
Said a scout, sympathetic about a team built on pitching: “You can’t lose Prior and Wood, two wins every turn around the rotation, and expect to be that good.”
The manager
The man is blamed for everything.
Most scouts avoided the question of whether Baker is to blame, though one indicted him with his silence and had no praise for the coaching staff. Some believe Baker has done well with the players general manager Jim Hendry provided.
Santo, the most veteran observer of the Cubs, praised Baker and said he hopes he stays past this year and next, when his contract runs out.
“I really mean this–you have to have continuity,” Santo said. “I don’t care how things go, you can’t be switching managers and coaches.”
One equally veteran observer said Baker “has never been through anything like this before. He was never criticized in San Francisco and he’s having a tough time handling it. He doesn’t have the veteran players in the clubhouse to help him through the tough times.”
Conclusion
Take your pick from any of the above, or take them all.
“Are they a better team than this?” a veteran scout asked. “Yes. Are they a top-notch team? I don’t think at this point you can say that. And I’m one of those who picked them for the division.”
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dvandyck@tribune.com
