It’s often interesting to see how wrong preseason perceptions turn out to be in late November.
For example, who predicted Central Florida, 0-11 last year, would go 6-3 and be bowl eligible? Or that Penn State could go from a losing season to 10-1 and still be in contention for a national title?
But one fairly simplistic analysis proved right on this season and it naturally concerned No. 1 Southern California. Anyone could say the Trojans would be undefeated, but the real surprise is the basic rule on USC is not much different than in August.
In the summer, conventional wisdom said USC’s offense would simply outscore other teams no matter how suspect its defense played. And that’s still true today. The Trojans came close to losing three games so far, but each time the offense bailed them out.
Last week’s thriller with Fresno State was Exhibit A. Fresno scored 42 points, 21 in each half so it was hardly a fluke. But USC put up even more points, no matter how shaky its defense appeared.
This is a defense that allowed 31 points to Notre Dame and 28 to Arizona State. The bottom line is, it did not matter.
But sometimes USC’s biggest enemy is itself.
USC coach Pete Carroll preaches winning the turnover battle, and the Trojans did that–5-1–against Fresno. And even though Reggie Bush gained 294 yards, they barely won.
You win the turnover battle and run the ball better than ever and almost lose? What gives?
Two things: The often-aggravating special teams allow too many big plays on punt and kick returns, and, sometimes, the offense is on the verge of hurting itself.
Carroll probably needs to become more involved in special teams the rest of the season to preserve a perfect season. It’s lingered too long as an Achilles’ heel.
As for the offense, a few facts no one discussed from last week: Despite scoring 50 points the Trojans went three-and-out on three possessions. And although Carroll loves a balanced offense, USC passed on its first nine plays and passed on a third-and-1 while trying to protect a late lead.
These little things haven’t mattered yet. But there’s still two games left and these are problems to keep an eye on before celebrating a third straight title.
