The Bears’ one-game lead over the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North is more solid than it looks, thanks to the NFL’s elaborate tiebreaker system.
It’s still an uphill fight for the Vikings to make their season finale against the Bears in the Metrodome the game that decides the division title. Even if the Vikings win out against Pittsburgh, Baltimore and the Bears and finish 11-5, they can’t win an 11-5 tiebreaker. They would have to hope for another loss by the Bears and beat them on overall record.
The Bears don’t have the luxury to look over their shoulders at the Vikings or ahead to their New Year’s Day finale in Minnesota. Sunday night’s visit by the Atlanta Falcons in the Bears’ Soldier Field finale is big enough.
But the Bears’ Christmas Day trip to Lambeau Field to play the Packers could get bigger.
It’s simple: the Bears can’t win a 10-6 tiebreaker with the Vikings if they lose to the Packers. The Bears can’t lose a 10-6 tiebreaker if they beat the Packers. Both scenarios assume a Vikings win over the Bears to even up their head-to-head record, the first tiebreaker.
If the Bears lose to the Packers, Minnesota could finish with a better division record. The next tiebreaker is common games and the Vikings can’t catch them that way.
The Bears can’t win a 9-7 tiebreaker with the Vikings, so if their Sunday loss in Pittsburgh starts a habit, the Bears had better hope the Vikings lose to the Steelers, too, this Sunday at home, or to the Ravens the following week in Baltimore to keep that one-game edge.
The Steelers can thank the Bears for allowing them back into the AFC playoff race and can now repay the favor by knocking off the Vikings in Minnesota.
If you can follow all that, you have the keys to the NFL playoff universe.
The Bears can clinch at least a wild-card playoff berth Sunday by beating Atlanta if the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys both lose.
In other playoff previews:
The Seattle Seahawks continue to establish themselves as the team to beat in the NFC.
The Indianapolis Colts have decided to try to keep winning, at least this week against San Diego at the RCA Dome. At 13-0, they have wrapped up AFC home-field advantage, but the playoffs are too far away for coach Tony Dungy to put his team on cruise control.
They will try to join the 1972 Miami Dolphins as the only 14-0 team. Then they go to Seattle on Dec. 24 and finish at home Jan. 2 against Arizona.
“We’ll probably play this game like a normal game,” Dungy said Monday.
“Once we get to the NFC games, we’ll see. You want to win this week because you could see [the Chargers] again, and we’re playing at home, and I don’t think you ever want to lose a home game.”
The Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers took big leaps in their divisions and the Cowboys and Carolina Panthers have an edge on the Vikings in the NFC wild-card race. The Falcons will be fighting for their lives Sunday night against the Bears at Soldier Field.
The Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals moved closer to AFC division titles, and watch out for the New England Patriots.
The two-time defending Super Bowl champions, forgotten during a rough start, have won four of five since losing to the Colts on Nov. 7.
The Patriots play Tampa Bay at home this week, the Jets on the road and get upstart Miami at home in the season finale.
As it stands now, the likely fourth-seeded Patriots would play host to Jacksonville in an AFC wild-card opener and then travel to Indianapolis for a division game.
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NFC NORTH
Bears can clinch playoff berth with:
A win and losses by Dallas and N.Y. Giants.
NFC West
Seattle has clinched division title.
Seattle can clinch first-round bye with:
1) A win.
2) A tie and N.Y. Giants, Carolina and Tampa Bay lose or tie.
3) A tie and a N.Y. Giants loss or tie and a Bears loss.
4) A tie and a Bears loss and Carolina and Tampa Bay lose or tie.
5) N.Y. Giants, Carolina and Tampa Bay lose.
Seattle can clinch home-field advantage with:
1) A win and a Bears loss or tie.
2) A tie, a Bears loss and N.Y. Giants, Carolina and Tampa Bay lose or tie.
AFC East
New England can clinch division title with:
1) A win or Miami loss.
2) A tie and a Miami tie.
AFC North
Cincinnati can clinch division title with:
1) A win or Pittsburgh loss.
2) A tie and a Pittsburgh tie.
Cincinnati can clinch playoff berth with:
A tie and losses by Kansas City, San Diego.
AFC South
Indianapolis has clinched homefield advantage.
Jacksonville can clinch playoff berth with:
A win and losses by Pittsburgh, Kansas City, San Diego and a Denver win or tie.
AFC West
Denver can clinch division with:
1) A win and losses or ties by Kansas City and San Diego.
2) A tie and losses by Kansas City and San Diego.
Denver can clinch playoff berth with:
1) A win.
2) A tie and a Pittsburgh loss or tie and a Kansas City loss.
3) A tie and a Pittsburgh loss or tie and a San Diego loss.
4) Pittsburgh, Kansas City, San Diego lose.
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dpierson@tribune.com
