The Bears’ one-game lead over the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North is more solid than it looks, thanks to the NFL’s elaborate tiebreaker system.
It’s still an uphill fight for the Vikings to make their season finale against the Bears in the Metrodome the game that decides the division title. Even if the Vikings win against Pittsburgh, Baltimore and the Bears and finish 11-5, they can’t win an 11-5 tiebreaker. They would have to hope for another loss by the Bears and beat them on overall record.
The Bears don’t have the luxury to look over their shoulders at the Vikings or ahead to their New Year’s Day finale in Minnesota. Sunday night’s visit by the Atlanta Falcons in the Bears’ Soldier Field finale will be big enough.
But the Bears’ Christmas Day trip to Lambeau Field to play the Packers could get bigger.
It’s simple: The Bears can’t win a 10-6 tiebreaker with the Vikings if they lose to the Packers.
The Bears can’t lose a 10-6 tiebreaker if they beat the Packers.
Both scenarios assume a Vikings win over the Bears to even up their head-to-head record, the first tiebreaker.
If the Bears lose to the Packers, Minnesota could finish with a better division record. The next tiebreaker is common games, and the Vikings can’t catch them that way.
The Bears can’t win a 9-7 tiebreaker with the Vikings, so if their Sunday loss in Pittsburgh starts a habit, the Bears better hope the Vikings lose to the Steelers, too, this Sunday at home, or to the Ravens the following week to keep that one-game edge.
The Steelers can thank the Bears for allowing them back into the AFC playoff race and can now repay the favor by knocking off the Vikings in Minnesota.
If you can follow all that, you have the keys to the NFL playoff universe.
The Bears can clinch at least a wild-card playoff berth Sunday by beating Atlanta if the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys both lose.
3 REASONS TO PANIC
Injuries: They’re starting to pile up and claiming important players.
Vikings: They’re winning and creating havoc, forcing six St. Louis turnovers Sunday.
Rookies: Youth still reigns at quarterback and kicker, two positions that must play better in playoff drives.
3 REASONS TO STAY CALM
Quarterback: It’s not Kyle or Rex. It’s Kyle and Rex. Best situation since Jim Miller and Shane Matthews.
Running back: Thomas Jones and Adrian Peterson are healthy, and Cedric Benson is getting there.
Defense: It’s still the league’s top-ranked unit, bad games against Cincinnati, Cleveland and Pittsburgh aside.
OTHER PLAYOFF SCENARIOS
NFC WEST
Seattle has clinched division title. It can clinch first-round bye with:
1. A win.
2. A tie and N.Y. Giants, Carolina and Tampa Bay lose or tie.
3. A tie and a N.Y. Giants loss or tie and a Chicago loss.
4. A tie and a Chicago loss and Carolina and Tampa Bay lose or tie.
5. N.Y. Giants, Carolina and Tampa Bay lose.
Seattle can clinch home-field advantage with:
1. A win and a Chicago loss or tie.
2. A tie, a Chicago loss and N.Y. Giants, Carolina and Tampa Bay lose or tie.
AFC EAST
New England can clinch division title with a win or Miami loss or a tie and a Miami tie.
AFC NORTH
Cincinnati can clinch division title with a win or Pittsburgh loss or a tie and a Pittsburgh tie.
Cincinnati can clinch playoff berth with a tie and losses by Kansas City and San Diego.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis has clinched home field.
Jacksonville can clinch playoff berth with a win and losses by Pittsburgh, Kansas City, San Diego and a Denver win or tie.
AFC WEST
Denver can clinch division with a win and losses or ties by Kansas City and San Diego or a tie and losses by K.C. and S.D.
Denver can clinch playoff berth with:
1. A win.
2. A tie and a Pittsburgh loss or tie and a Kansas City loss.
3. A tie and a Pittsburgh loss or tie and a San Diego loss.
4. Pittsburgh, Kansas City and San Diego lose.
Going nowhere
Arizona, Baltimore, Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston, New Orleans, N.Y. Jets, Oakland, Philadelphia, St. Louis, San Francisco and Tennessee.
