Don’t judge the bowl season by its cover. Or in this case, its first page.
The first bowl is the worst–maybe even the worst ever. It’s the New Orleans Bowl, but it will be played Tuesday in Lafayette, La., because of the effects of Hurricane Katrina.
It’s one of three games that will feature a pair of 6-5 teams.
In this case, it’s Southern Mississippi vs. Arkansas State.
Ugh.
But at least 10 of the 28 games should be compelling.
Team with the most questions
Colorado. The Buffaloes have a new coach in Dan Hawkins, but he will remain with Boise State for the MPC Computers Bowl. So lame-duck/interim coach/defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz will guide a team that was outscored 100-6 in its last two games.
Team with the most to prove
Oregon. Last year Cal was outraged after missing out on a Rose Bowl berth. But the Bears had to quit complaining when Texas Tech stunned them in the Holiday Bowl. A similar scenario could play out this year with the 10-1 Ducks, who will face 7-4 Oklahoma in this year’s Holiday.
Team with the most to gain
Northwestern. OK, USC and Texas are playing for the national championship, but NU is vying for its first bowl victory since the Truman administration.
Team with the most to lose
Michigan. The Wolverines haven’t had a five-loss season since 1984, but they will fall to 7-5 if Nebraska can spring the upset.
Team with nothing to gain
Penn State. The Nittany Lions, two seconds from a victory over Michigan that would make them 11-0, face a four-loss Florida State team in the Orange Bowl. Penn State already is considered the nation’s third-best team, and not even a 21-point victory can enhance that status.
Luckiest team
Central Florida. After the Golden Knights lost the Conference USA title game to Tulsa, they landed a spot in the Hawaii Bowl.
“Are you serious?” defensive tackle Keith Shologan said. “We lose and go to Hawaii? That’s pretty cool.”
Can’t-miss games
USC-Texas: No big deal, other than USC has won 34 straight and Texas 19 in a row. Also Texas leads the nation in scoring at 50.9 points a game and USC is second at 50. And the setting is the best in college football–the Rose Bowl.
Ohio State-Notre Dame: There’s a reason standing-room-only tickets are going for $85 a pop–and that’s face value. Charlie Weis’ play-calling genius will be challenged in the Fiesta by the nation’s best rushing defense.
Three more (potential) gems
Northwestern-UCLA: Sun Bowl features the worst and seventh-worst defenses in the land. First team that has to punt loses.
Wisconsin-Auburn: Will be tough for the Badgers to send coach Barry Alvarez out a winner in the Capital One Bowl. Auburn has two losses, and one came in overtime against LSU.
Iowa-Florida: Hot-shot coaches Kirk Ferentz and Urban Meyer try to start 2006 undefeated with a victory in the Outback Bowl.
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GRAPHIC: TEDDY GREENSTEIN’S BOWL PREDICTIONS
DT, BOWL, SITE, TEAM, REC, CONFERENCE, VS. TEAM, REC, CONFERENCE, LINE, TIME, TV, SKINNY: GREENSTEIN’S PICK
Tue, New Orleans, Lafayette, La., Arkansas State, 6-5, Sun Belt, Southern Miss., 6-5, C-USA, SM by 17, 7-a, How bad is Arkansas State? Indians lost to Army by 28: Southern Miss
Wed, GMAC, Mobile, Ala., Texas-El Paso, 8-3, C-USA, Toledo, 8-3, Mid-America, Tol by 3, 7-a, Battle of QBs features UTEP’s Jordan Palmer, Carson’s brother: Toledo
Thu, Las Vegas, Las Vegas, BYU, 6-5, Mtn. West, California, 7-4, Pacific-10, Cal by 7, 7-a, It’s Vegas, baby. Have to like the teetotaling Mormons: BYU
Thu, Poinsettia, San Diego, Colorado State, 6-5, Mtn. West, Navy, 7-4, Independent, Navy by 3, 9:30-b, Practically a home game for run-happy Midshipmen: Navy
Fri, Ft. Worth, Ft. Worth, Houston, 6-5, C-USA, Kansas, 6-5, Big 12, Kan by 3, 7-a, The Who Cares Bowl. At least Kansas had to beat Iowa State to get here: Kansas
Sat, Hawaii, Honolulu, Central Florida, 8-4, C-USA, Nevada, 8-4, Western Ath., Nev by 2, 7:30-a, No lie: George O’Leary’s UCF crew rebounded from 0-2 start to qualify: Nevada
D26, Motor City, Detroit, Akron, 7-5, Mid-American, Memphis, 6-5, C-USA, Mem by 5 1/23-a, Memphis RB DeAngelo Williams received one first-place Heisman vote: Memphis
D27, Champs Sports, Orlando, Clemson, 7-4, Atlantic Coast, Colorado, 7-5, Big 12, OFF, 4-a, Back-to-back blowout losses knocked Gary Barnett out of this one: Clemson
D27, Insight, Phoenix, Arizona State, 6-5, Pacific-10, Rutgers, 7-4, Big East, ASU by 11 1/27:30-a, Rutgers’ first bowl trip since 1978 is like an Arizona State home game: Rutgers
D28, MPC Computers, Boise, Idaho, Boise State, 9-3, Western Ath., Boston College, 8-3, Atlantic Coast, BC by 1, 3:30-a, BC faithful are going to pack the house for this one, no? Boston College
D28, Alamo, San Antonio, Michigan, 7-4, Big Ten, Nebraska, 7-4, Big 12, Mich by 11 1/27-a, Michigan-Nebraska on Dec. 28? Beleaguered Huskers happier to be here: Michigan
D29, Emerald, San Francisco, Utah, 6-5, Mtn. West, Georgia Tech, 7-4, Atlantic Coast, GT by 8, 3:30-a, Not exactly a rivalry game. Utah misses Urban Meyer: Georgia Tech
D29, Holiday, San Diego, Oregon, 10-1, Pacific-10, Oklahoma, 7-4, Big 12, Ore by 3, 7-a, No BCS game for Ducks, who have to take on nation’s best 7-4 team: Oklahoma
D30, Music City, Nashville, Minnesota, 7-4, Big Ten, Virginia, 6-5, Atlantic Coast, Minn by 3, 11 a.m.-a, Practically a home game for Gophers, making third trip here in four years: Minnesota
D30, Sun, El Paso, Texas, Northwestern, 7-4, Big Ten, UCLA, 9-2, Pacific-10, UCLA by 3, 1-c, Over-under for game: 74 1/2 points, highest of any bowl: Northwestern
D30, Independence, Shreveport, La., South Carolina, 7-4, Southeastern, Missouri, 6-5, Big 12, SC by 4, 2:30-a, No way the ol’ ball coach will lose to a mediocre Big 12 foe, right? South Carolina
D30, Peach, Atlanta, Miami, 9-2, Atlantic Coast, LSU, 10-2, Southeastern, OFF, 6:30-a, Two good teams but big-time defenses–small ratings in bowl games: Miami
D31, Meineke, Charlotte, N.C. State, 6-5, Atlantic Coast, South Florida, 6-5, Big East, NC by 5 1/2, 10 a.m.-b, In a game with no meaning (or appeal), go with the pseudo-home team: N.C. State
D31, Liberty, Memphis, Fresno State, 8-4, Western Ath., Tulsa, 8-4, C-USA, FS by 7, noon-a, Fresno followed near-upset of USC with two straight defeats: Tulsa
D31, Houston, Houston, TCU, 10-1, Mtn. West, Iowa State, 7-4, Big 12, TCU by 4, 1:30-b, Quest for perfection–teams are a combined plus-35 in turnover margin: TCU
J2, Cotton, Dallas, Texas Tech, 9-2, Big 12, Alabama, 9-2, Southeastern, TT by 3, 10 a.m.-d, Defense wins championship, but what about bowl games? Alabama
J2, Outback, Tampa, Iowa, 7-4, Big Ten, Florida, 8-3, Southeastern, Fla by 2 1/2, 10 a.m.-a, Iowa is 3-1 in bowls under Kirk Ferentz–and loss was to USC in 2003 Orange: Iowa
J2, Gator, Jacksonville, Virginia Tech, 10-2, Atlantic Coast, Louisville, 9-2, Big East, VT by 7 1/211:30 a.m.-e, Knee surgery knocked out Louisville’s top-notch QB, Brian Brohm: Virginia Tech
J2, Capital One, Orlando, Wisconsin, 9-3, Big Ten, Auburn, 9-2, Southeastern, Aub by 10 1/2noon-f, Heart favors soon-to-be-retired coach Barry Alvarez, but Tigers on a roll: Auburn
J2, Fiesta, Tempe, Ariz., Ohio State, 9-2, Big Ten, Notre Dame, 9-2, Independent, OS by 4, 3:30-f, Cheer, cheer for old Notre Dame? Brady Quinn’s sister dating A.J. Hawk: Ohio State
J2, Sugar, Atlanta, West Virginia, 10-1, Big East, Georgia, 10-2, Southeastern, Geo by 8, 7:30-f, Does the Big East deserve any respect? Watch and find out: Georgia
J3, Orange, Miami, Penn State, 10-1, Big Ten, Florida State, 8-4, Atlantic Coast, PS by 8, 7-f, Cocoon Bowl’s Paterno and Bowden have a combined 712 victories: Penn State
J4, Rose, Pasadena, Calif., USC, 12-0, Pacific-10, Texas, 12-0, Big 12, SC by 7, 7-f, If Texas had Reggie Bush, Longhorns would win by two touchdowns: USC
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tgreenstein@tribune.com
